A question of strategy



  • When it comes to your futures, do you guys have an idea of when you will sell?

    See I have bought futures in players, I keep a sheet with all my data and for the players I have a column of what my ideal sell price would be. If it hits that, I am happy with the profit and I will look to cash in and move on.

    Not sure if anyone else does it like that but that's just me.

    Now I know I should look to stick to my strategy but a certain Mr Salah is causing me issues. He is bordering on what my target sale price would have been but as it stands, he kind of shows no signs of slowing down, both in price increase and MB. I reckon over the weekend I could be in a position where he hits my ideal sell price and in theory I should cash in and move on.

    But the thing is, with Liverpool having the CL final coming up I just don't see this stopping until at least that time.

    Now I'm not looking for anyone to tell me what to do here, just thoughts. If this were your strategy, would you hold out and take it a day/an hour/ a minute at a time our would you stick with the strategy?



  • @Dudditz09 I suppose it depends if you are happy to allow a deviation based on dividend returns. He has been an absolute dividend machine and so you could allow that as an offset.



  • Someone like Sessegnon I will probably hold for 10 years.



  • @Noirx4 see that is my thinking. In theory, the dividends could offset a slight crash comparative to what I would ideally sell him for, allowing me a bit more room to manoeuvre with him.

    I am just wary of falling into the greedy trap.



  • @Dudditz09 I see what you're saying about being wary of greed but you also need to be flexible in your strategy at times and I'd say the case of the current MB king with 10 days of triple media between now and him playing in the biggest match of the season (won't say year because there's a WC final to come!) is one of those cases. Personally I wouldn't be selling now, but there's potential for him to reach a price peak before the finally actually arrives I think. Will be very interesting to see if he gets that Neymar/Pogba-style "media for doing nothing" this summer or if he only spikes when transfer rumours are reported.



  • @NewUser139880 Not sure if this was just hyperbole, but in case you didn't know - shares expire after 3 years.



  • @BL__FI fair point, I forgot about triple media days.

    I suppose with that in mind, sticking to my strategy is not quite so crucial f he can net a few of those.



  • @BL__FI You're right obviously but if you are recycling your shares (sell, buy, sell buy) then you can theoretically maintain a position in a player for as long as you like as you automatically sell the oldest shares first. I'm sure you know that but just in case anyone else is reading...



  • I'd rather look at the best time to sell rather than a target price.

    For example if I expected Salah to rise from £4 to £9 by the end of the season and he got to £9 before the end of the season it would be silly to sell as when I bought I presumed he would continue to rise until the end of the season.

    I usually think of an exit time when I buy the player and then re evaluate at that point. Some examples are;

    Pavon - will be sold when he comes to Europe (depending on the club)

    Kane - will be sold at some point around the WC.

    Younes - will be re-evaluated as soon as I know what happening with his move to Napoli.

    Whatever the price at that time I will sell for as that's the time I chose to sell based on the information and reason I bought the player.



  • Like Ozzebert I personally wouldn't have a target price. It depends on what's happening really I f he keeps on rising. Also, how many futures do you hold? I think Egypt will qualify from their WC group so if your getting twitchy fingers sell a few and hold some. I don't have Sarah, but I would hold him for sometime yet.



  • @cjw95 Yeah fair point, you can stay invested in a player for as long as you like! Just making sure no one thought they could buy and simply hold for a decade :D



  • I meant Salah!! Bloody predictive text.



  • Why not sell enough shares to cover what u invested to get him? Keep the rest risk free n then u can always sell those for a profit at any price, or if drops u can top up etc. It gives u a bit more freedom



  • @Dudditz09 said in A question of strategy:

    d look to stick to my strategy but a certain Mr Salah is causing me issues. He is bordering on what my target sale price would have been but as it stands, he kind of shows no signs of slowing down, both in price increase and MB. I reckon over the we

    On transfer spec player I have 2 target prices. Once it hits the lower one I slowly start selling, if it hits the top one I look to sell my whole position. Obviously I have some flexibility but generally try to keep to this method



  • @Blue-Python that's a good strategy, personally I trade based on circumstances rather than price targets. So if player A is rumoured to be leaving their team, and his price rises, I won't even consider trading until firm rumours come out on them, Shaqiri is an example. I think it seems highly likely he will leaves. He's already risen due to this so I could take an OK profit now but there's not been any concrete links for him. I'm waiting til that happens before I'll consider selling, should see a spike. Plus he's came out and said he won't discuss his future for another fortnight Wen the season finishes. So the rumours will keep coming til then. No point in selling before then if nothings gonna be decided even if he was to hit a certain price I'd decided I would be happy with. That's my strategy.



  • @BL__FI I wasn't aware of the 3 year rule, do the shares automatically sell then?



  • ...."Why, this is a bull market!" The old fellow said it as though he had given a long and detailed explanation. Reminiscences of a stock operator.



  • @NewUser139880 I think FI haven't actually said exactly what will happen. What's clear is that your shares expire after 3 years so the assumption is they will be sold automatically then and the hope is FI will give us some advance warning when they do. But your oldest shares in a player get sold first so my personal belief is there won't be many 3-year-old ones around. I've been on here 4 months and have barely any of my first buys left.



  • @BL__FI I believe that if you reach the 3 year hold limit you will automatically lose the money you invested in these players they will not be automatically sold. FI have stated for a while that they will be bringing a tool out to track when you are close to your 3 year limit but as of yet we have had nothing so you have to track for yourself. I could be wrong though



  • @MrFrenchTickler - that was my understanding too and this is the reason why it's not a taxable investment but rather gambling. If you still hold that share at 3 years you lose your investment. People might think that the solution is quite simple, but I'm sure a hell of aot of consultation is needed on every possible solution because auto sell / buy or a fee to transfer the investment to a new set of futures might not be allowed in the legislation


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