Re-evaluating Player Values Post IPD Promotion



  • The valuations of many players are potentially set to change drastically in the next 2 weeks with the end of the x 5 IDP Promotion.

    We will likely see a fall in the value of goal contributors who post low PB scores.

    The money from these players will likely start to pump into tried and tested PB players (Higher Value) and PB potential players (Lower Value).

    Regardless, short term holds are going to be a lot less profitable and traders will have to start setting up longer term holds. All eyes on FI now for how they intend to retain money in the market with the next promotion.

    What do others think..



  • If a lot of them drop then they will become good value for 2p a goal ect.



  • Yes, I think there will be a general shift towards PB and MB players, and certainly a lot less renewing of futures to pick up IPDs.

    That said, it's worth noting that IPDs from October onwards will still be 100% higher than they were when football was suspended in March and prices were generally higher.



  • Hell of a lot harder flipping a player for 2p divs instead of 10p divs though! Goalkeepers might be worth it though if you can sell and buy back without it costing anything...



  • @Marksandygill said in Re-evaluating Player Values Post IPD Promotion:

    Hell of a lot harder flipping a player for 2p divs instead of 10p divs though! Goalkeepers might be worth it though if you can sell and buy back without it costing anything...

    Anyway if its a decent player with prospects I wouldn’t worry. .....plays everyweek, Europa league/champions league, media attention, euro’s, future transfer appeal, ......I wouldnt worry prices bounce back.



  • The most important aspect of the 5x promotion (besides the great potential ROI) was that it returned liquidity to previously stagnant holds. Especially the mid/lower priced sector, many of these players have been impossible to shift since Feb/Mar, except at huge spreads. So the sudden impact of a 10/20p single day return allowed trapped money an exit (if only to refresh for the IPD eligibility) & whilst 2/4p are still generous returns, they simply can't compensate for often 20/30p spreads, so even recycling IPD players may again become impossible/uneconomic.

    Market makers were supposed to help alleviate this market stagnation but other than pumping money into the top end I have seen very little evidence of their activity in the other 95% of the market, that arguably needed the liquidity help the most. Couple that with the effective reintroduction of sales queues (that FI have imposed in a panic as a response to the Sunday flash crash) then unless they instigate a bumper 5th B'day promotion the market looks likely to suffer a prolonged period of stagnation, with the exception of some good matchday performers (which obviously only represent a very small % of the overall players on the market).

    Over to you FI we await the next promotion announcement with bated breath.



  • I imagine they'll drop as a knee jerk reaction then rise again and settle at a mid point as people buy in seeing them as still reasonable value for the lower yet still reliable 2p dividends.

    The players I hold and fear a drop in value are Aubs, Son, Insigne, Jesus...might even chuck Sterling in there

    Hoping for a big weekend for those guys to either sell off or maybe skim a few off the top and top up when the price drops.



  • I really am struggling to think what FI can do to keep everyone happy. Before order books was a thing and before covid, the product was running just great, everyone seemed to make money, FI were in a good position financially and we at the dawn of something great. There was talk of going into other countries and advertising was at the next level...... All of a sudden its absolute shite. Its just negative thread after thread, I'm guilty of this as well. The amount of money people talk about winning on here is great and they still ain't happy. The dividends are amazing yet people aren't happy. It seems to me it doesn't matter what they say it won't be enough. Since removal of the original I S no one feels safe putting money in here anymore. Iv got my 6g still in but I don't feel half as comfortable as before. My winnings have been wiped. These last few weeks have seriously damaged this product. It's so sad to see. Do people think its best to have a cash balance now and just invest and pull as soon as there is a spike in a player? I think if FI doubled divs right now it wouldn't make a difference. What do they need to do to get people back on side?



  • @AndydfopT said in Re-evaluating Player Values Post IPD Promotion:

    I really am struggling to think what FI can do to keep everyone happy. Before order books was a thing and before covid, the product was running just great, everyone seemed to make money, FI were in a good position financially and we at the dawn of something great. There was talk of going into other countries and advertising was at the next level...... All of a sudden its absolute shite. Its just negative thread after thread, I'm guilty of this as well. The amount of money people talk about winning on here is great and they still ain't happy. The dividends are amazing yet people aren't happy. It seems to me it doesn't matter what they say it won't be enough. Since removal of the original I S no one feels safe putting money in here anymore. Iv got my 6g still in but I don't feel half as comfortable as before. My winnings have been wiped. These last few weeks have seriously damaged this product. It's so sad to see. Do people think its best to have a cash balance now and just invest and pull as soon as there is a spike in a player? I think if FI doubled divs right now it wouldn't make a difference. What do they need to do to get people back on side?

    Tiered PB. That has been the call in the 2 years I've been here. TOTM once a month is not enough. FI has consistently said no. A Team of the Week would be an acceptable compromise. It would invigorate all sections of the market and there would be no need for artificial stimulants such as deposit bonuses. A business cannot survive if it does not give its customers what they want.



  • Having not been around for the early days it seems that massive CA and the safety net of FI backed IS at a level close to purchase price is being replaced by larger levels of dividends and much lower CA?

    People are much less likely to buy players who won't return a good rate of divs except in promo periods like the current enhanced IPDs

    FI has changed and player values will carry on changing for a while until they start to match a players expected career div returns?



  • @Marksandygill

    Yes, I think that is a fair assessment.

    Long term the Order Books system should enable significant growth in player prices. A lot of people are in such a flap at the moment because their portfolio has dropped say 10%, that they've completely forgotten to value a player based on their likely 3-year dividend yield and that dividends have increase by between 67% to 100% compared to a month ago. Most of the regular dividend winning players on the Index should be able to deliver a 100% dividend yield over 3 years (baring death / career ending injury / move to China), which is a great return. Long term, the growth potential in player prices is really big.

    But short term (i.e. next 3 months or so), the easiest way to profit is likely to be through earning dividends, rather than cap app.



  • @ocs123 said in Re-evaluating Player Values Post IPD Promotion:

    @Marksandygill

    they've completely forgotten to value a player based on their likely 3-year dividend yield and that dividends have increase by between 67% to 100% compared to a month ago.

    Isn't a 3 year valuation calculation on a player just bad business at this point? There are too many moving parts not just on FI but in the football world for it be anything like accurate.

    I joined Dec 2018, so I can't really talk about the time before then but since I joined...

    • MB opened up to the Squad List
    • The PB Matrix changed
    • Goal Keepers got their own category
    • TOTM has been introduced
    • IPD has been introduced
    • Dividends payments have changed frequently
    • FI backed IS has been removed
    • The ME system is in place
    • Bid Zone has been added
    • MB has been overhauled and will be overhauled again soon

    Every one of those changes, impacts the value of a player and we know that there's plenty more changes to come. Some of the changes add incredible value to specific players at the expense of others, whilst other changes lowered the value of every player on the market.

    My point is... if you were trying to value a player 3 years ago, none of the above would have been on your radar, never mind the countless changes in football, be it a manager sackings, new team mates, injuries, VAR, position changes, 5 subs, transfers, etc.

    Does it really make sense to value a player over a 3 year time period when there are so many moving parts? How realistic can your valuation calculation possibly be?



  • @Dan-The-Man

    I agree with you for a change there Dan 😂

    Below is something I posted on this a short while ago regarding 3 year valuations.

    I have a slightly differing view and believe you can really only value a player until the next annual dividend review as you do not know what the annual review will do to the future value.

    Therefore if I currently buy a player I am looking at the following:

    IPD in first month
    PB in year 1
    MB in year 1
    TOTM in year 1

    Then you have to work out the risk of the player which involves where they are playing, how old are they and chances of losing form etc

    It is then realistic to expect the dividends to increase for these areas in year 2 and 3 and additionally there may well be other ways to earn as last year there was no TOTM what is there to say there will not be other dividend earning prizes next year or the following.

    There is also the possibility of future share splits like in previous years that also added value.

    Therefore I am looking for players that can earn dividends in the current season and based on age and situation would likely continue to be in demand next year and if dividends rise hopefully the player will.



  • Since i joined in October 2018 i would say we have been absolutely spoiled with Cap app. When i first joined there were whispers of a share split and prices were flying and every time it went flat they threw deposit bonuses or other promos at us. As soon as a promo period ended everyone grumped and moaned because the prices would drop a little.

    Now With the order book system cap app isnt the same as before. It could fly more than before at times of high demand but in the most part trading cap app will happen between the spreads. Player graphs should be based on mid price points to highlight this. I doubt deposit bonuses will have the lasting affects they had in the past, they are probably more likely to cause drops and new opportunities to buy low.

    We see a lot of people moan about FI moving the goal posts and changing bets but i look back over the 2years ive been here and see that without these constant changes we would have never seen the cap app we have seen, everything they have done has inflated the market by keeping it fresh and the user base excited. The new system kind of resets all of that and lets us go again but now its up to us to put a valuation on those players instead of FI telling us what they are worth. This means we can maintain higher yields and actually keeping prices low is in the best interest of any trader who regularly buys new players.

    The cap app game has now become secondary to the dividend game but thats the way it should be and thats how you make money from FI instead of it being purely P2P



  • @Black-Wolf Joined just over a year ago and was introduced by someone who has little understanding of the platform in truth. Cap app was the supposed big draw, getting on young players and riding the wave , dividends was only a sideshow.

    Now a year on, a lot wiser and with a better understanding (can still improve) dividends are the main focus of my shares so I feel less bothered that Bruno drops if my main belief is that he will deliver regular returns. However, I wonder how many others came into the platform the same way I did, followed someone on twitter who said get on Bruno then Sancho then Cherki, making easy money and sitting on loads of 'profit' and then starts asking what the hell is going on when turbulence hits....Some of the stuff I read on twitter, well some of these people should be put down....



  • I think my aim from this weekend will be to get out of any low IPD-type players I have, if they do well. As I'm assuming there will be a price dip and I can get back in at a lower price thereafter.



  • @Harford-is-God it was exactly like that when i joined and i blame the share split for causing that cal app mentality because before that all the players were valued on what they would return you but once the share split got mentioned no one knew what it would split by so prices really started to inflate and the whole market followed as other players looked cheaper by comparison and ever since then cap app has been the main money maker. Now it will likely be more about earning cap between spreads or dividends over a term



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Re-evaluating Player Values Post IPD Promotion:

    @ocs123 said in Re-evaluating Player Values Post IPD Promotion:

    @Marksandygill

    they've completely forgotten to value a player based on their likely 3-year dividend yield and that dividends have increase by between 67% to 100% compared to a month ago.

    Isn't a 3 year valuation calculation on a player just bad business at this point? There are too many moving parts not just on FI but in the football world for it be anything like accurate.

    I joined Dec 2018, so I can't really talk about the time before then but since I joined...

    • MB opened up to the Squad List
    • The PB Matrix changed
    • Goal Keepers got their own category
    • TOTM has been introduced
    • IPD has been introduced
    • Dividends payments have changed frequently
    • FI backed IS has been removed
    • The ME system is in place
    • Bid Zone has been added
    • MB has been overhauled and will be overhauled again soon

    Every one of those changes, impacts the value of a player and we know that there's plenty more changes to come. Some of the changes add incredible value to specific players at the expense of others, whilst other changes lowered the value of every player on the market.

    My point is... if you were trying to value a player 3 years ago, none of the above would have been on your radar, never mind the countless changes in football, be it a manager sackings, new team mates, injuries, VAR, position changes, 5 subs, transfers, etc.

    Does it really make sense to value a player over a 3 year time period when there are so many moving parts? How realistic can your valuation calculation possibly be?

    This is true in the sense that you can't predict the changes that Football Index are going to make, however certain players are simply resilient to change and always will be, because they're simply fantastic players with excellent and consistent underlying number.

    I'm confident that those two points will always hold true, it's how I value players. So I don't think looking at players from a 3-year perspective is a bad idea, however if you're looking from a 3-year perspective and you are valuing players solely by the current scoring criteria, then I think that is a terrible idea for all the reasons you've outlined.



  • @Black-Wolf said in Re-evaluating Player Values Post IPD Promotion:

    Since i joined in October 2018 i would say we have been absolutely spoiled with Cap app. When i first joined there were whispers of a share split and prices were flying and every time it went flat they threw deposit bonuses or other promos at us. As soon as a promo period ended everyone grumped and moaned because the prices would drop a little.

    Now With the order book system cap app isnt the same as before. It could fly more than before at times of high demand but in the most part trading cap app will happen between the spreads. Player graphs should be based on mid price points to highlight this. I doubt deposit bonuses will have the lasting affects they had in the past, they are probably more likely to cause drops and new opportunities to buy low.

    We see a lot of people moan about FI moving the goal posts and changing bets but i look back over the 2years ive been here and see that without these constant changes we would have never seen the cap app we have seen, everything they have done has inflated the market by keeping it fresh and the user base excited. The new system kind of resets all of that and lets us go again but now its up to us to put a valuation on those players instead of FI telling us what they are worth. This means we can maintain higher yields and actually keeping prices low is in the best interest of any trader who regularly buys new players.

    The cap app game has now become secondary to the dividend game but thats the way it should be and thats how you make money from FI instead of it being purely P2P

    Yes, we were certainly spoilt by it. It was hard to ignore it really and was the obvious way of making money. I think it has lulled a few people into a false sense of being a good trader when all they've really done is join on an upward curve.

    The sooner prices are more in line with dividend potential, the better, I think. It means the platform makes more sense and is more reputable. It also makes it more about trading and picking good yielding players, rather than just buying the latest South American wonkerkid the moment they IPO and listing 10 minutes later (whilst the platform crashes).

    Sentiment will always be important though and it would be wrong for it not to factor into a players price, it just shouldn't be enough on it's own. It feels like a few people are sitting tight at the moment in anticipation of FI's next move at the start of October, but regardless there will be loads of opportunities to trade between the spreads and I can't wait!



  • @Fletch said in Re-evaluating Player Values Post IPD Promotion:

    @Dan-The-Man

    I agree with you for a change there Dan 😂

    🧐
    If you're agreeing with me, I've obviously gone wrong... I must rethink this immediately. 🤔

    you can really only value a player until the next annual dividend review
    Therefore if I currently buy a player I am looking at the following:

    IPD in first month
    PB in year 1
    MB in year 1
    TOTM in year 1

    Then you have to work out the risk of the player which involves where they are playing, how old are they and chances of losing form etc

    Yeah, I'd say that's pretty close to my way of doing things. I suspect that I place a slightly higher priority on Cap Ap than you might and I factor in what I can sell the player for/how likely I'll be able to sell him. I base most of my plans on the tournaments at the end of the season, given that the market works a bit like a funnel for the UCL/UEL/Euro tournaments. Then I look for high yield potential amongst the players who are likely to advance with the idea being that I can pick up divs throughout the season, with a built in exit point.

    It is then realistic to expect the dividends to increase for these areas in year 2 and 3

    Slightly disagree here (I knew something wasn't right ha). Given the constant changes, I don't think it's remotely realistic to expect a specific player to see an increase in dividend returns.

    For example, if you go back 2 years, Henderson had never won PB but under the new matrix, he won it on 3 occasions. Pogba went the other way and picked up just 2p worth of PB last season, despite the various dividend increases. That's a significantly lower return than any of his previous seasons. I'm obviously being selective with my examples but Pogba was the hottest topic on FI for a long time and if you go back and read what the masses were expecting... I don't think any of us were saying he'd pull in less PB, most were projecting he'd gain more.

    There is also the possibility of future share splits

    I think we can completely rule that out from now on. FI needed share-splits to keep prices attractive for new blood but when they removed IS, they removed their risk, so now it's more in their interest to just crash the market the way that they have done recently. That way they don't have to adjust dividend payouts, they get a cash grab out of it and as we've seen recently, folk on here reach for their credit card when the crash happens to take advantage. Most people are already forecasting another crash coming and even @Black-Wolf is predicting 2 specific crashes, so it's not just those of us who are seen to be "moaning". Given all the crashing... it's hard to imagine that they'd need a split or accept the added liability that comes with it.


Log in to reply