Goalkeepers



  • Anyone got any insightful predictions for them over the next few weeks/months? Find it strange they’ve been consistently dropping over the last couple weeks. I understand some profit making, but they were a lot higher priced before the IPD was even announced. Donnarumma for example could be ISd this week for £1.30, gets a clean sheet and clearly a great hold and people are now willing to sell for £1.20, missing out on 10p IPD. Makes no sense to me.



  • @chaps1988 whilst we are under going the transition to order books you wont find a safer place to put your money. They are from what i can tell the least volatile holds on the index



  • I agree with @Black-Wolf im putting all my dividends into keepers; I’m happy with the long term future of my outfield players but for new money keepers is the safer bet in my opinion



  • @chaps1988 I think they will stay undervalued for a while.

    New customers may not realise that they have only just been given their own category and assume that current value is the norm.

    A lot of people will now be locking in profit from the spike after the GK announcement as x5 IPD is coming to an end, hence the drop in price.

    My feeling is they won't rise sharply but will follow a smooth trajectory up - collecting divs on the way.



  • @Black-Wolf I keep hearing this, but yet they all continue to drop steadily... Do you think the mass IPD sell off will mean money goes into them? I



  • I think a lot of deposit money might go into them over the next month. Less risk involved, dividends ticking over, better odds on collecting dividends and potential market fall won’t eat as much into the bonus for goal keepers.



  • Agree with @Black-Wolf & @Sav2000 - all my dividends going there atm



  • @chaps1988 my portfolio is nothing but keepers and it just fluctuates, im not seeing the kind of drops we are seeing elsewhere. Many players are in steady free fall . Take Son for example he alone has dropped more than the entire price of many keepers after his spike last week.

    Key word you said is “steadily” when described them dropping, look through nearly all other players graphs in comparison, many have been dropping off a cliff

    As for where the money goes after the promo, no i dont expect it to go into keepers and i expect this may be when they see a drop but i will say that this is when my money will go into them



  • The issue with GK is their spread really tightens up on a clean sheet on this promo, but when their is no clean sheet their spread is literally 50%. As IPD can't be bought after the game is played they gonna lose their tightening time and IDK when you would get out of them at a decent price. So its all about buying cheap selling cheap after picking up the divs rather than buy low sell high.

    Examples -
    NO clean sheet today

    Handanovic 29p/49p - 20p spread 40%
    Yann Sommer 63p/83p - 20p spread 24%

    Clean sheet today

    Benoit Costil 35p/38p - 3p spread 8%



  • @Toptom speeds don’t matter if your not looking to sell them for 3 years; you really are a doom and gloom merchant



  • @Sav2000 No spreads do matter if you're looking for capital appreciation.

    Like I said it's a buy cheap sell cheap make money on the dividends, As there is unlikely to be any appetite from the market for capital appreciation.

    This isn't doom at all. This is exactly what we want to invest in!



  • @Toptom said in Goalkeepers:

    The issue with GK is their spread really tightens up on a clean sheet on this promo, but when their is no clean sheet their spread is literally 50%. As IPD can't be bought after the game is played they gonna lose their tightening time and IDK when you would get out of them at a decent price. So its all about buying cheap selling cheap after picking up the divs rather than buy low sell high.

    Examples -
    NO clean sheet today

    Handanovic 29p/49p - 20p spread 40%
    Yann Sommer 63p/83p - 20p spread 24%

    Clean sheet today

    Benoit Costil 35p/38p - 3p spread 8%

    IPDs definitely can be bought after the game is played? It's one of the best things about FI! Even if we base the mechanics of price movement just on what you've written in the post, it seems like a clear strategy would be to buy low after a lack of a clean sheet then sell high when a keeper gets a clean sheet.



  • For me the safest holds, but starting to wonder if the market will bother trading for 2p CS and 1-3p pb this season... Much less risk in holding keepers, but much less winning buzz too. Long term could be amazing though as they should get increased divs in next div review, then the pb wins start to get fun if holding from these early prices before any future div rise rush.



  • Has anyone worked out how they are going to recycle their goalkeeper/ general IPD shares once the 2% buy commission comes in bid offers? If you were to lose the 2% on purchase+2% on sale+difference in buy/sell price it could eat significantly into margin. I'm very much going to try and carry on the IPD market but just thinking of the best ways about getting round it. Do you think more people will be recycling on the 'buy now' price?



  • @OldUser731 there will be two ways I go about it.

    1. in game with a tight spread buy first then sell once the price goes up enough to cover the commissions paid. If they don’t go up enough I’ll just wait until the following week.

    2. recycle with a fellow user when the price is lower and the player has a good run of games where I should make the commission back easier.

    Note I probably won’t do it on any keeper over 70p as the margin will be to slim to make it worth while.



  • @Sav2000 and for point 1 are you buying with an offer or at buy now price?



  • @OldUser731 always on ME I monitor the game and start bidding around 80 mins if it’s a clean sheet. I then have my bids open and cancel if they concede, it’s a game of chicken .



  • Thanks for the advice - just trying to work out the best way of doing it as don't want to eat into the margins. It's all about small percentages and volume so might have to watch the first couple of games and see how it pans out.



  • Just used my 20 quid of divs from last night to buy Skorupski at full price. Spread was small so didn't seem worth low bidding. If he gets clean sheet tonight 25% return, if he doesn't (or doesn't play) I have 3 years worth of potential pb wins. Really hard to comprehend how much value keepers still represent



  • @OldUser731 that’s exactly what I did in the first few weekends of the promo to see how prices spiked etc.

    For the past two I’ve been confident and recycled 300 Dubois and countless keepers; in real terms I ended up making the 10p div and on average 2p further profit on the actual share which covered the commission plus some, although I know it won’t be as fluid with standard 2p divs going forward.

    Good luck I hope it works I it well for you


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