Dani Olmo case study



  • I've checked my portfolio today and noticed exactly 1 year to the day, I bought Dani Olmo. At that time, he had played all through the Spanish youth teams and was playing at Zagreb at the time, had impressed in the Champions League and was linked with a move. Since I bought him, he has became a full Spanish internationalist with an outside chance of making the Euros squad, moved to a Top 5 League, and scored in a Champions League quarter final.

    His price has obviously fluctuated up and down but over the course of the year, his net movement is 0p (as at time of typing) despite all of the above developments, and almost double dividends for the Top 5 leagues. So, was the price in September 2019 artificially high and now with order books, this is his true value? Was this a bad buy (surely not, and I'm not saying that because I hold him, from a purely footballing perspective, his career has developed the way you would want him to)? Is he now artificially low? Or has the platform changes made these types of holds redundant (at least on a mid-to-long term) and the only way to play it now is to constantly flip and take the hit on the commission?



  • @NewUser146187 an honest answer is a mix of all of the above.

    Probably a little over priced last year, for his move in Jan but due to COVID didn’t get the instant impact of the season running its course.

    OB and market sentiment have not helped but at 22 years old, likely to continue to develop at RBL and potential of making the Euros still a pretty solid hold.



  • Dani Olmo was priced based on being a very good young player whom would get a move to a PB league.

    Dani Olmo has now moved to a PB league with a very good team but not yet looked like he will be a PB threat week in week out.

    His price will go up with decent PB performances or go down with out them, all the achievements you've noted didn't translate into any real dividends. You've not seen any price movement because he's produced nothing of note to warrant one.



  • @Sav2000 said in Dani Olmo case study:

    @NewUser146187 an honest answer is a mix of all of the above.

    Probably a little over priced last year, for his move in Jan but due to COVID didn’t get the instant impact of the season running its course.

    OB and market sentiment have not helped but at 22 years old, likely to continue to develop at RBL and potential of making the Euros still a pretty solid hold.

    I'm in no rush to sell just now as my reasons for buying him are still valid today and if anything, the dividend changes are geared towards rewarding performance rather than buzz. I'm far more concerned with some of the +£6 players right now.

    I just thought it was a curious case when I checked today and noticed a net 0p and it was exactly a year since purchase. I'll need to lick my wounds that I bought at a peak and console myself with the 3p per share he's bagged me.

    Cheers for the response.



  • I hold too. A bit disappointed by his PB output so far but he's a good young player in a promising team, playing in the CL and possibly the Euros. Not too worried.



  • @DW said in Dani Olmo case study:

    Dani Olmo was priced based on being a very good young player whom would get a move to a PB league.

    Dani Olmo has now moved to a PB league with a very good team but not yet looked like he will be a PB threat week in week out.

    His price will go up with decent PB performances or go down with out them, all the achievements you've noted didn't translate into any real dividends. You've not seen any price movement because he's produced nothing of note to warrant one.

    I'd slightly disagree that moving to PB league shouldn't warrant a price movement as his chances of scoring dividends has went from 0% to some % (if we take Media out the equation).



  • @NewUser146187 it did (jumped to +£2.60) but has regressed downwards.

    Screenshot_20200928-155706.png

    Anyways viewpoints aside if he performs well this season his price could get back to that level with dividends to boot.



  • @DW said in Dani Olmo case study:

    @NewUser146187 it did (jumped to +£2.60) but has regressed downwards.

    Screenshot_20200928-155706.png

    Anyways viewpoints aside if he performs well this season his price could get back to that level with dividends to boot.

    Cheers, that makes sense. I've not been on the forum long but learnt more on here in the last month than I did in the 18 months as a casual trader.



  • Competition in that Leipzig midfield for PB is pretty fierce. Outside of FI however, I think Olmo is very highly rated by the manager and could push on. I'll hold onto my few for the time being I think but it's certainly worth rethinking your holds and strategies moving forward.



  • Good player but a battle with Nkunku and Sabitzer for PB might be the reason for the drop


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