Youngsters



  • Combining the potential for PB and rise in value, who do people think the best youngsters are on the index? I like the look of Aouchiche but just wanted to get other people's thoughts as I'm looking to invest in a couple!



  • I think 95% of the youngsters are overpriced.

    Historically, you could invest in them & sell back to the house if it didn't work out.

    Now, if you invest & the turn out to be a flop you are stuck with them at a huge price tag.

    Some are dearer than people who already earn good percentage yields who are established PB players.

    Why anyone would want to pay £5 for a Bellingham or £6 for a Cherki 🦃 is absolutely beyond me in the current climate.

    Give me a Messi who will return £3-£4 a year for a fiver or a Kane who will return me £2+ for the same fiver any day of the week



  • Problem is you're not just gambling that they will win PB against other players, but that their game is actually suited to winning PB!

    Look at Mbappe, probably the best young player in the world, but his PB game on FI doesn't justify his price (yet) same could be true of any player from Sancho to Greenwood!



  • @xXMr_FishXx said in Youngsters:

    Combining the potential for PB and rise in value, who do people think the best youngsters are on the index? I like the look of Aouchiche but just wanted to get other people's thoughts as I'm looking to invest in a couple!

    Yep, Aouchiche is a good one, and also Caqueret who is 20. GKs Dragowski and Unai Simon are only 23, very young for 'keepers. There's also Roberto Lopez, 20, who is getting more game time as a forward. He's under a pound.



  • Couldn't agree with Ericali more.

    The ceiling on buying youngsters is very high, if you pick up the next big thing you can easily see returns of 200-300%. However the vast majority of youngsters won't be the next big thing.

    Previously the floor was also pretty high as you could sell back the house, maybe you'd lose 10% or so but that meant you really only needed a strike rate of 1 in 10 and you'd still make a profit.

    Now the floor on youngsters is much lower and the failed ones will sell for much less, or may even be unsellable. As a result you need a much better ratio of hits to misses to profit.

    There is a certain amount of price memory factored into youth players at the moment and I think this makes them overpriced for the risk. Eventually I think this will fade and they'll start to be available at a lot less, at that point the return on the one that hits will be sufficient to warrant picking them up again.

    For me the value is currently elsewhere on less risky players who are going to be returning PB in the near future.

    I tend to think of these players as being like gold, during uncertain times gold values soar as it's a safe haven and that's what I think PB players are at the moment. Whereas youth players are more like Tech stocks. Sure if you buy Amazon early on you're laughing, but for every success story there are plenty of complete failures.



  • I don't hold as many youngsters as I'd like - as Eric said, the potential is so heavily tied into their price it's hard to see where the cap app is coming in the next three years.

    I like Lamptey at Brighton, starting to build a little collection Geubbels, moved to Monaco with so much potential at a very young age, finally on the brink of the team although the forwards did a great job this weekend so he may have to be patient- but you can get him £1 at the moment.

    Camavinga, Bellingham, Fait are the obvious ones who whilst they look overpriced could all have good PB games in them judging on recent performances.



  • Wouldn't buy any prospects at the moment. Remember having a friendly argument over Gilmour, I wonder if the guy is still happy paying £3.15 for him?



  • @howsthebacon said in Youngsters:

    I don't hold as many youngsters as I'd like - as Eric said, the potential is so heavily tied into their price it's hard to see where the cap app is coming in the next three years.

    I like Lamptey at Brighton, starting to build a little collection Geubbels, moved to Monaco with so much potential at a very young age, finally on the brink of the team although the forwards did a great job this weekend so he may have to be patient- but you can get him £1 at the moment.

    Camavinga, Bellingham, Fait are the obvious ones who whilst they look overpriced could all have good PB games in them judging on recent performances.

    How is Guebbels going to earn you money ?

    I heard he has No Balls

    ![I'll get my coat](cc2184a5-fdf5-4e8b-a202-f3fa7adfa497-image.png l)



  • I've just started to put some divs into Camavinga, I've never held any of the youngsters and the trend always comes around. I think (hope) there is still money to be made just becuase there is an overreaction to every good or bad pb score so I'm hoping holding a small number will give me the visibility to jump on and off on the regular when the trend does come around.



  • @Ericali
    Kane return £2 in divs? In a year?!

    I think your overall point is spot on but that's a bit optimistic. You been placing offers Eric?!



  • @Lukeroro said in Youngsters:

    @Ericali
    Kane return £2 in divs? In a year?!

    I think your overall point is spot on but that's a bit optimistic. You been placing offers Eric?!

    He's won 60p in the last week tbf



  • @Lukeroro said in Youngsters:

    @Ericali
    Kane return £2 in divs? In a year?!

    I think your overall point is spot on but that's a bit optimistic. You been placing offers Eric?!

    He's won 89p in the last 365 days.

    Screenshot_20200928-190703.png

    Dividends have doubled since so £1.78 in today's money. Plus at the end of this year we have an international tournament & he's national captain so yeh, he should do £2. 👍



  • I guess Camavinga might be one of the better suggestions, Rennes doing well at the mo and Real Madrid links for the future. Not even 18 y/o, one of the few players I regret selling of late



  • I'm in agreement with alot here that most youngsters are overpriced. Now that dividends are higher, traders seem to be more concerned about what they can earn now, rather than shelling out 5-6 quid for a player that may return some of that in a couple of years. For me this is the healthiest signs of the market at the moment, as dividends should be driving value, and we have always had such a disproportionate amount of youth in the top price bucket.

    I just had a look out of curiosity to see whether the dividend increase has change the structure of the market compared to exactly 12 months ago.
    2e1a19e8-4c51-45e0-a7f4-2255bef13c63-image.png

    Basically in the top 200, there is still a huge amount of young players, over 50% are 23 or under. That is pretty phenomenal given they only make up about a third of the players on the Index. But even in the top 200 there is a move towards older players.

    I found the picture in the chasing pack (201-400) really interesting. All the older price brackets are increasing their representation. Makes sense as older players are more likely to deliver dividends, and the yields at the moment are fantastic.

    Of course, players a year older than a year ago so would be moving into older price buckets which would be partly driving this. But even so, I think it shows finding undervalued youth is going to be harder than ever.



  • @xXMr_FishXx

    Hype will drive crazy prices during certain periods, but the genuine value lies in the players who are developing on the pitch. Dividend winners tend to be 28+, so you will find the emerging long term value in the 22-25 year old market in my opinion... That said this is not a rational market, so you'll routinely see players under 20 priced 5x higher than players who are 22-25 for no real reason other than they are younger 😂



  • I buy the odd youth player not because I think they’ll be the next Messi but because others believe it! Picked up Cherki on Brown Sunday for a silly low price and the moment he scores or wins PB I’ll jump out at around 75% profit.

    It’s not always about picking the next best thing but buying players others will want to buy at a premium in the not to distance future.



  • There are some out there; Aouchiche, Cuisance, etc but I totally agree with @Ericali in that most are overpriced and already have a price-tag of a proven PB winner, despite not proving it yet. The prices of Greenwood, Foden, etc don’t appeal to me at all, despite them having great potential.

    Yes it can pay off but you can also get severely burnt. A great player doesn’t always equal a great FI player.



  • @Ericali maybe, but Pogba won £1.44 and Banega 83p, not every player will double. I don't see Kane winning £1 in dividends, letalone £2. (I do accept I've used extreme examples!)

    Having thought about the original post, @xXMr_FishXx I would say that if you want to get on youngsters, I'd get some solid research done! Anything over £2/£3 and you're gonna need guaranteed dividends. Looking at the next best thing coming out of non-PB leagues can generate super hype and capital appreciation. Portuguese and Dutch leagues are good sources, along with the Red Bull production machine.



  • got to be fati and adil, i also like ihatteran and brewster nketiah
    not seen enough from all the others...inc ihatteran actually



  • For the experienced traders, how do you target certain players? On this thread alone, we’ve seen foden and fati come up and they’re around the £5/6 mark who are young kids who won’t get you much pb divs but will probably get cap app given their age and regular minutes in club and national teams.
    Around that price mark, you’ve got pb players like kdb/kimmich who won’t get much cap app but will get consistent divs.
    Slightly lower than that are players like Rashford sterling sane gnabry who will get a slight cap app and decent divs but not as much cap app as the youngsters and not as much divs as the pb players.
    Is it worth investing into the young players who will probably play a lot of minutes in their leagues and euros or consider the fact that they could be overpriced and might be safer to go for the pb players?


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