Dividends Increase Forecast



  • How does everyone think dividends will increase over the new few years and what forecast do you use, if any, in your valuations of a player?

    Taking a 3 year hold, or more if you plan on renewing, we need to keep this in mind when valuing players. It's obvious there will be an expectation from FI that dividends will increase at the start of each season and the cost to them needs to be considered in relation to the outlay. It would be interesting to see the numbers but I'd guess that 80%+ of dividends stay in the market. Probably more in the good times.

    The last two increases have been

    2019-20 - 57%
    2020-21 - 100%

    Being optimistic, if dividends double for the next two years, that takes the current 28p Gold star man to 56p and then £1+ relative to today's prices (of course there will likely be a share split before then if we head in that direction).

    Taking the average of the last two years (78%) gives us 43p and 76p for Gold star.

    IPDs (at 100%) to 4p and 8p or (78%) to 3p and 6p depending on rounding.

    If FI moves ahead with the current strategy (financially regulated) and progresses as planned there's no reason to consider these increases unrealistic. A likely consequence of this shift will be larger amounts of money entering the market and subsequently quicker and more rapid rises. If this is opened up to instutional investors then we're heading to another level.

    Ultimately FI have declared they are in a strong financial position, the current 'values' are an overreaction and things will level out. The actual cost to FI for dividends is low bearing in mind most are reinvested so what do you think?

    Nb. Completely unrelated, but has the recent increase changed anyone's trading? I find that the higher the divs I win, the more likely I am to buy top end players. Makes sense I guess, but just wondering about others. A few shares in higher priced players over larger quantity of shares in lower priced. Probably just connected to perception of prices?



  • Love positive posts



  • @Metropolis it will depend on market growth up to and including the Euros if we’re back on track then I’d say 75-100% across the board; if were still in recovery phase then 30-50%



  • @NewUser181925 Thanks. Trying to look beyond the current turmoil. It's sometimes easy to forget how good the dividends are.



  • @NewUser181925 You mean 'over' positive right



  • I'd think the 5*ipd was a taste of things to come.

    Regular increases in dividends come at a large cost to FI and I am sure it's something they spend a lot of time thinking about.

    I'd expect we won't see another pb increase until after an IPD increase and we could even see a shift in validity of shares at some point (FI don't want to be at a point where every player is returning a significant amount of pb divs relative to their price, as why would you ever sell a share). IPDs work for FI as it's 2% back everytime



  • I imagine everything depends on how FI's planned expansion goes and also player prices, you're not going to get doubled divs if players stay at similar value levels to now?

    Also if prices double aren't we more likely to see a share split and divs staying as they are (so essentially doubled?)



  • @Moukoko I can see the 5x coming for the Euros would certainly generate some commission for them.



  • Was it you again @Sav2000 that downvoted my 'negative troll' opinions?! This forum is a funny place



  • @OldNewUser yes I down voted first time I’ve used it, your constant negativity when the op is simply talking long term is pathetic.



  • @OldNewUser surely trading forecasts are based on precedents?



  • @Sav2000 Not a problem. As you were



  • @Moukoko True about the 2% commission, but the cost to FI of PB divs must be low if the vast majority stay in the market?



  • @Marksandygill Yeah we'll definitely see a share split. I guess the value forecast would still ring true though? So holding 100 shares now with the current divs would be an increase with 300 and relative new div increase?



  • @Metropolis I suppose it staying the index also increases liability though.



  • @Sav2000 I agree, I said this elsewhere, can't see anymore bonus IPD promotions until the Euros. Hopefully things are back on track then and we can all enjoy the Euros with some additional IPD and a nice positive buzz at the end of the season.


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