Reading the Market



  • I’m relatively new to this forum but some of you will know that my general position is that the majority players have been overvalued. With recent events my position has begun to change and, relative to dividend earning potential, every day is throwing up more potential bargains. I’d propose soon that we all start boasting of our best low buys in a thread, bringing some positivity to the obvious and inevitable negativity that pervades most of the threads at present.

    But, irrespective of your position on whether assets are overpriced or not, we have to read the market. And this is a market that is falling every day at present and showing no signs of changing. No IS for previously popular assets, players dropping massively despite good performances, and incredible levels of volatility are very bad signs. Clearly, tons are selling and many selling up altogether.

    Every day for the past couple of weeks people on here and twitter have mentioned that now is the time to buy. Bruno at £9 too good to turn down. Bruno at £8, at £7… I’ve thought it too this week and invested at certain points (primarily three: Messi at £4.80, Robbo at £1.82, and my first investments in Henderson at 42p) but have seen prices dropping further still. This market clearly isn’t being defined by the general forum user but by a silent majority far more focused on now instead of tomorrow.

    Maybe FI will announce something tomorrow and the market will look better. Maybe things will begin to turnaround naturally tomorrow when the dust settles on today’s madness. But my position is don’t buy in the majority of cases, especially at the top end of the market. And I say majority because obviously some bargains will be too good to turn down. But remember: this is an international break, this is a moment of significant and concerted market decline, and current events are taking place with the brakes on and an 8% bonus in place. I’m sure astute traders can make plenty of money out of these prices but I think it’s more likely that we can make more in the near future when this selling frenzy begins to slow.



  • I think it's a good question as clearly people misjudged the bottom last time, as prices continue to fall. It feels like a holding pattern is best for now, as I'm not sure prices will rebound fast enough for you to miss the low sale prices. There are clearly people who want to get their money out still so more dip to come and FI should just remove the 1p floor now.



  • @Timmy im trying to think of the best strategy now. if i knew the falls would continue i would hold on to my cash balance and buy some of these bargains in the next few weeks. someone in my whats app group is frightened they might suspend the market and come up with some kind of solution which would mean we lose this opportunity. i cant see what they could do though. a 'no sell' bonus?



  • We can't be too far from the bottom when you can pick up players like Salah close to £3 and he might return that in the first season alone



  • @Timmy I've largely ignored Twitter and the forum for advice over the last few weeks but like to keep up and contribute to understand sentiment. I'm not guessing the 'bottom' but buying players based on price Vs potential returns for any long term holds then ignoring the price for now.

    I'm also playing the spreads for some decent flip's which I think alot of people are doing and is confusing the heck out of people whom are yet to adapt. Good example is last night I was able to buy Lewandoski for £2.05 before he scored his 4th goal and his IS almost instantly rose to £2.60. People would have probably seen my sale go through the ticker and thought why's Lewandoski being dumped but I just made 20% in a few minutes. The buy price didn't need to rise for me to do that.

    Now take the above scenario and you can start to understand why player prices are dropping massively, all the opportunity is between the spreads right now. I think once we get NASDAQ and some better visibility that won't be as prominent and prices will once again rise.



  • @DW yeah i need to get better at doing this



  • @Skinny said in Reading the Market:

    We can't be too far from the bottom when you can pick up players like Salah close to £3 and he might return that in the first season alone

    Salah returned £0.45 in the last 12 months so it seems very unlikely he'll return £3 this year alone. Even with increased dividends the real figure is likely 60p to £1. He's 28 so chances are he's going to return a max of £5 over the rest of his career.



  • @GDS Please I was starting to feel a bit more optimistic about the future. Thanks for bringing me back to earth anyway



  • @Skinny

    Sorry mate. I'm just trying to be realistic with my valuations and predictions and I'm trying to base them on facts and stats, rather than just saying we're all doomed or everything is great.

    I think there are areas of good value at the moment. One is by buying on a Sunday evening, Monday morning and then selling Saturday before the game, or waiting for the game and hoping the player has a good game.

    The other is at the bottom of the market where IPD's more than cover the 2% you pay for refreshing. There are plenty of strikers available for 40p to 60p and two goals in 30 days pays for the refresh. Anything else is a bonus and if they actually win PB you're quids in. The risk though is that you can't sell when it comes to be time to refresh.

    Both these are probably off the table, or at least much harder, during the international break though



  • @jonathan-rolfe That's a fair point re. suspension of the market. I think they are in a difficult position now - they've stood by their new system, put the brakes on with the sell price restriction, parked the buy commission and we currently have a generous bonus. My instinct, which could very well be wrong, is that they won't do anything else for now because they've already intervened. The only thing that wouldn't stink of desperation would be IPDs for international fixtures but I don't see that happening. But perhaps the falls and the continued negativity will force their hand.



  • @DW Very true regarding the flips - I got Lewa for cheap after the third goal too. My approach has been to top up and flip players I want for the long term because of their dividend potential but the extent of the selling at present is really disconcerting. The fact that Lewa was available so cheap after a hattrick (and at that point over 200 points) says everything about this market.



  • I think the commission aspect was for PR really. If they'd started to increase their profits by making an additional 2%, whilst everybody else is losing money (every time we login!), it could have looked really bad.

    However, apart from that clear PR issue, it would most likely have helped the situation. That 2% commission has to be factored in when making a bid and so most people would be more likely to pay the listed price, rather than trying to gain that little bit extra, dropping the prices of all players and it should have helped in the recovery.

    We're on a race to the bottom at the moment, but the lack of Sell options even on big players means that not enough people are buying - even with the cash boost. People are expecting to lose more than 8.5%. We need to find the bottom to recover and hopefully it will be soon as prices are now cheap compared to the dividends.

    The important thing is that we have the dividends underpinning the prices. I believe I can get at least £300+ / month in dividends without investing further and that's a very good return on what I've invested. The worst case scenario for me is that the new dividend model doesn't fit with the big change in trading and they revise it.



  • @Timmy said in Reading the Market:

    @jonathan-rolfe That's a fair point re. suspension of the market. I think they are in a difficult position now - they've stood by their new system, put the brakes on with the sell price restriction, parked the buy commission and we currently have a generous bonus. My instinct, which could very well be wrong, is that they won't do anything else for now because they've already intervened. The only thing that wouldn't stink of desperation would be IPDs for international fixtures but I don't see that happening. But perhaps the falls and the continued negativity will force their hand.

    Spooky


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