Think we are pretty close to the bottom folks.



  • Just scrolling through the player prices - so many with no sell price.

    This must mean the bottom is close and FI can do whatever they need to do to allow 'us' the user base get the index moving again.

    FI said a while ago MMs would be used to ensure there would be no players without a sell price - but lets be honest if they did use them now - people would only jump on and drive the price down again.

    I think we are at that time when FI have to say to its user base, come on the journey or leave and be brave enough to do that.

    I'm actually expecting an out of the blue update either today or tomorrow - we have had time to absorb the update from Adam Cole and i think now its time we decide to either stay or go.

    In my honest opinion, 60 to 70% of people making the noise wouldn't leave as they wouldn't want to miss out on what's going on and speaking to a few people they have 5 figure sums ready to stick in the platform but they want to play with the rules we will be using going forward and not this 'hand-brake' system we have in place.



  • I hope you are right I have lost 30 % of my portfolio value since the changes and this week lost another 1K despite having Son , Kane , Wilson and Saint Maxime to name just a few.I want to stay but my confidence has plummetted in the last few weeks and I believe many others are in the same boat.I hate negative posts but when your players are doing well and you still drop a grand what would have happened if my platers were doing badly !



  • I know I'm personally holding back a big chunk of cash simply because of the very strange double net buy bonus, which encourages users to be taking their money out during the first half of the bonus and then pump it back in during the second half. I sold up a large amount of my port when the bonus was announced, avoiding the majority of the damage from the current crash, but I fully intend to buy back in.

    I think a lot of the damage is artificial, and created intentionally by FI to take advantage of the panic, very sneaky. They have probably made a killing in commission. I'm not sure how I feel about that ethically, but it is what it is, I'm just here to play the game in front of me.

    I'm not too worried. Having a good laugh at the doomsayers. I find it hard to find any substance in their arguments that we're heading to 0 valuations when my best hold at the moment is a 30+ striker who has just won a gold day and returned me 20% of his value since the beginning of August.

    I think a couple more big dividend payouts on the popular holds and sentiment will flip back. Come the new year we'll all be laughing about that time our ports nearly died in October, as is starting to become tradition around here.



  • The market only needs 2 things to succeed; Yields & confidence the dividend review & recent price falls have firmly established the first but the second has been decimated by FI's woeful platform mismanagement. Money will not have the confidence to enter this market, in the required volume to reverse this current bear phase, if it fears being trapped via a lack of liquidity & quite frankly ridiculous FI imposed stabilisers.

    Until FI realise that they can no longer dictate market prices, as they could when using FI backed IS, then we will be hobbled by bid floors/ceilings/limits that it's pretty clear the market has shouted (by the lack of depth or even vacant bids) it will not tolerate. Remove these artificial restrictions, allow supply & demand to determine prices & yields to drive growth then we can finally start to commence the recover phase.



  • @DillyDong I think I'm the only one taking advantage of phase one, well I will be as we come to the 15th. I understand why it made sense to sell up and buy back in on phase 2 but I didn't think of it straight away so I decided to take a different approach. Towards the end of phase one I feel we will see the prices bottoming out, or perhaps next weekend during international fixtures. I'm trying to pick up some bargains with my balance and get the 8% bonus. I feel when phase 2 starts, there will be people rushing to pick up players to spend the money they've been saving thus pushing the prices back up and it'll be tougher to get players.

    Maybe I'm wrong but it's the approach I've taken and I'm going to stick to it :)



  • @DillyDong said in Think we are pretty close to the bottom folks.:

    I know I'm personally holding back a big chunk of cash simply because of the very strange double net buy bonus, which encourages users to be taking their money out during the first half of the bonus and then pump it back in during the second half. I sold up a large amount of my port when the bonus was announced, avoiding the majority of the damage from the current crash, but I fully intend to buy back in.

    I think a lot of the damage is artificial, and created intentionally by FI to take advantage of the panic, very sneaky. They have probably made a killing in commission. I'm not sure how I feel about that ethically, but it is what it is, I'm just here to play the game in front of me.

    I'm not too worried. Having a good laugh at the doomsayers. I find it hard to find any substance in their arguments that we're heading to 0 valuations when my best hold at the moment is a 30+ striker who has just won a gold day and returned me 20% of his value since the beginning of August.

    I think a couple more big dividend payouts on the popular holds and sentiment will flip back. Come the new year we'll all be laughing about that time our ports nearly died in October, as is starting to become tradition around here.

    I had started doing this as well, the way they structured it seemed like the obvious thing really. I certainly think several others are doing the same. I took a little bit out of FI to hold back for the second part, and I was amassing a balance ready to make another withdrawal, but given the falls of the last 48 hours that money is now tied up in bids.

    One of those situations really where certain prices have dropped so much it seems the better course of action is to buy now rather than wait a couple of weeks. I also have the thing in the back of my head that FI are only ever a few days away from another statement/gesture when the market is going like this.



  • @howsthebacon Agreed - IF and I think its a big IF, nothing changes when phase 2 of the bonus kicks in then I will have to re-evaluate my stance.

    I have gone from shitting myself on Brown Sunday.
    To saying all will be good.
    To taking a week time out.

    And now dreaming about what I did to set up an alternative to FI!!!! I mean what the fucks that all about - the lads in the whatsapp group have my mad scribbles on the notepad next to my bed sent to them as a photo..... :-)

    All will be good, I am sure of it, just ride this latest storm out and then blue skys' fluffy bunnies and the Millers in the Prem....



  • @howsthebacon It's all about timing, and ultimately more people will get caught out than will benefit, but if you've thought out your approach and are consistent with your trading philosophy then you will be in a very good position to be one who benefits in times of crisis. As long as you have a good game plan and stick to it then you're way ahead of the mob. There's people on the forum rightly buying the dip now and making very good buys in phase one. I applaud them for it, it takes balls.



  • @Millerman doesn't having no sell offers mean the opposite?

    Because of the bid zones, players aren't at the prices where people are looking to buy them back.

    We seem to be at a stage of cat and mouse at the moment where buyers are holding back, knowing that prices are going to drop further but aren't bidding yet because of the bid zone.

    Most players with bid offers are so close to their bottom bid zone limit.



  • If F.I. are sensible they’ll rip the plaster off before the end of this 1st phase of the net spend bonus; the. In the 2nd phase we’d start to see positive sentiment and we all know once that happens FOMO kicks in and we start the rebirth.

    I’m going to have a conversation with the other half tonight about depositing a few more grand this week as I only see us going in one direction once F.I. allow the market to bottom out.



  • I still think there is a fair way to go before the bottom when it comes to the top of the market, I agree we're pretty much at the bottom when it comes to the bottom of the market.

    Without the comfort blanket of IS players are now only worth what they can return in dividends over the rest of their career (minus a bit for risk and profit). So let's look at a few examples.

    Neymar - Returned £1.05 last year, so let's say that under the new dividends table that's £1.50. He's got what 4 years at that level and a couple more at a slightly lower level, let's say £9 earnings left in him. That probably values him around the £5 mark.

    Dybala - Returned 24p last year. Let's be generous and say that doubles to 48p and he keeps that up for the next 6 years, plus a couple more at a lower rate, Total earnings £3? Probably values him around £1.80 to £2.

    Sterling - Returned 36p last year. Let's double it again and say he keeps doing that for the next 7 years. Total earnings £5.04. Probably values him at around three quid.

    TAA - Earned 22p last year. Again let's double it and assume he can do this for the next 10 years. Total earnings £4.40. Probably worth £2.50 to £3.

    I sincerely hope I'm wrong but logically speaking that's the levels I think players are worth. The current values are based on price memory from an old system that no longer applies.



  • @OldUser731

    I take no sales price as a sign of those that want to sell the player have and as such people who hold the player are happy to do so.

    That's how I read it anyway - maybe oblivious to everything though???



  • @DillyDong doesn't take balls to pick up Berardi for 1.70!



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  • @Millerman interesting we are both looking at it from completely different perspective!!
    I assumed for example that with Mbappe that people aren't willing to bid for him at his lowest option (£8.37) so there are currently no offers.

    For example - I would like to bid for him at say £5 but not able to at this stage.

    But at the moment either people will have to list him 1p lower to drive down the buy now price and thus bring down the bid price. Or FI will have to stretch the bid zones.





  • @OldUser731 Thats the beauty of the platform - people will see what they want to see until they allow themselves to see other people's views - reassess and then re-make their minds up.

    I'd rather have debate with reason both ways rather than just its doomed.

    Cheers Olduser



  • @Millerman what I would say is the last thing FI want is no offers at all as they can't make any commission if nothing is going through the ticker. Will be interesting to see their next move.

    Think they might be trying to hold back the flood gates. The sensible thing I think would be to slowly open the bid zone as the day week goes on to wait for the equilibrium point.



  • @Millerman said in Think we are pretty close to the bottom folks.:

    @OldUser731

    I take no sales price as a sign of those that want to sell the player have and as such people who hold the player are happy to do so.

    That's how I read it anyway - maybe oblivious to everything though???

    No IS price just means there is no one willing to buy at the lowest possible price allowed by the current bid zone. That means that buyers are valuing the player lower than the lowest figure it's possible to buy at. People who want out on that player can't get out and that's going to lead to a pent up demand to sell, so when the stabalisers finally come off you're going to see a rush to sell and that player's price will likely fall further.

    So seeing no IS is a bad thing for a players value as far as I can see.



  • @GDS said in Think we are pretty close to the bottom folks.:

    @Millerman said in Think we are pretty close to the bottom folks.:

    @OldUser731

    I take no sales price as a sign of those that want to sell the player have and as such people who hold the player are happy to do so.

    That's how I read it anyway - maybe oblivious to everything though???

    No IS price just means there is no one willing to buy at the lowest possible price allowed by the current bid zone. That means that buyers are valuing the player lower than the lowest figure it's possible to buy at. People who want out on that player can't get out and that's going to lead to a pent up demand to sell, so when the stabalisers finally come off you're going to see a rush to sell and that player's price will likely fall further.

    So seeing no IS is a bad thing for a players value as far as I can see.

    Unless you’re buying ...


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