First post, no expert but now a bit stuck

  • I joined FI about 18 months ago and each month, I drip-fed £200 into the account and bought young promising players, ending up with a portfolio of 40, possibly because I treated FI like buying shares and decided to have a diverse portfolio rather than to put all my eggs into one basket, and to play the long game of finding promising young players and waiting for them to develop.

    I had no real reason to sell any of them as the prices were going steadily upwards, making me feel like it was a good decision. I was intending to wait until the players who I had backed had reached some sort of peak, and then sell.

    I have other investments, a business to run and a family, so I was never going to be logging on every day to check the prices, just as I don't with my other investments. If you aren't looking to sell, the price is irrelevant i.e. long-term backing of the players was my aim. Dividends have long been inconsequential for me because of the 30 day rule.

    Then, a few weeks ago, as we all know, the wheels came off when the player prices tanked. More than half of my players are now worth a lot less than I paid for them, literally in the space of a week or so, and I wasn't (yet) prepared to sell at a loss because I still believe in those players.

    I've read that FI 'changed things' which must have contributed to this almost instant change in the price of players (I say 'price' because I believe 'value' to be subjective). My players didn't become crap overnight and I feel that their prices were negatively affected by the 'system' rather than their performances. I also hear that 'Divs have doubled' but that's of no relevance to me as my players have been with me for some time.

    I am not confident any longer with FI as method of speculating with my money as I felt that I had done the right things i.e. pick the promising players and hold onto them for their future value - just like Bale joining Spurs for a few million first time around, turning out to be amazing and then going up greatly in price. Surely that's how it should work, right? Are we not going to be rewarded for buying players who are young and getting better, if, since they improved, their prices have, in some cases, halved?

    My portfolio is now at a loss 'on paper' and if I wanted to use the money elsewhere, even to buy other different players, I would be realising that loss. I don't see how it has come to this, given that the players are doing well on the pitch and that's how it was sold to me in the advert when I signed up i.e. “Buy and sell shares and profit from your football knowledge by buying low and selling high.” I don’t see how football knowledge has helped here, from my current position.

    I haven't put any more money in since the ‘crash’ and don't intend to right now because of the way things are. I am not even confident that buying all of the current cheaper players will be a good move - who knows if this won't all happen again? If this was real shares and investments, I would buy when the prices are low, but if I cannot correlate the performance and value of a player with their price, who knows what direction any ‘bet’ will go in.

    With most of my players much lower than when I bought them, what's the advice here? Sell at a loss because they are unlikely to ever rebound to the price paid, hold until 'when'? i.e. do you guys feel that prices will come back or are those sitting on 50p-£1 before purchase price as never going to rebound?

    I'd like to feel more confident about FI going forwards, but my experience went from great to not so great, almost overnight, and I can't see a way to feel positive about FI again.

    Thanks :)

  • I think a lot of people feel like this and that the bet has changed. I completely agree as somebody who got on board around 3 years ago, I was sitting on 45% profit in my portfolio and that was after I'd taken out my Sancho shares which I'd brought at around the £3 mark and sold at over £10.
    There has been instances in the past where there was panic, everybody was withdrawing money and I too panicked before the market recovered and its easier to put your money back in.
    Over these three years the company has grown. Adverts on TV, on the radio and sponsorship deals on the front of Championship clubs. For me the market is as safe now as it has ever been.
    There are people out there with £100k's invested into this product and can manipulate the market. They sell, other people follow and sell. They buy and people jump back on. Add to the fact that probably 95% of users don't understand how the shares are now brought and sold has resulted in a lot of uncertainty.
    I'll be honest I've found it difficult to throw more money into the mix as the money I threw in after the major drop on that Sunday a few weeks ago has gone down and down. I'm happy that I have put it in, I just wish I'd have held fire a bit longer as I could have got more for my money.
    Now's the perfect time to invest for me and I'll be ready with some more funds before the next window of the bonus where I expect the market to start shooting up again.

  • @NewUser1081 I’d suggest you read one of the other 40+ threads which have been posted since order books came in; both sides of the discussion and some healthy debate.

    Not sure we needed another thread but nice to have another previously silent forum contributor.

  • @NewUser1081 at this point I’d strongly suggest sitting it out. If you’ve bought young upcoming players as you suggest then you bought them with the long game in mind presumably. At the moment the market for these types of players is very depressed and strongly weighted towards current div earners. Eventually those youngsters will pick up divs and their values should increase. The market has been through a massive correction, you could sell some of your players with narrow spreads and get on to the div earners or just sit it out but I think if you sell undesirable players now you’ll probably miss out in the future.

    That’s just my view, you need to pragmatically assess your own circumstances, appetite for risk and confidence in the platform and FI going forward (months rather than days). The market looks to be picking up this morning, big buys going through. This may be the start of the recovery but don’t expect there won’t be some bumps along the way.

  • @NewUser1081 unfortunately those adverts are hopelessly misleading and to some degree responsible for the depressed sentiment towards FI, as well as the current crash. They’re advertising to casual punters a product that doesn’t exist, and when they sign up they don’t understand why it doesn’t work as they imagined. Players with potential only have long term value now and have become a huge risk.

  • @NewUser1081 said in First post, no expert but now a bit stuck:

    Dividends have long been inconsequential for me because of the 30 day rule. I also hear that 'Divs have doubled' but that's of no relevance to me as my players have been with me for some time.

    If you have been on the platform for 18 months I am surprised that you have not even a basic understanding of dividends... I am not meaning to sound harsh when I say this, it is just very surprising... Dividends are paid out on your holds for performance buzz (PB), media buzz (MB) and team of the month (ToTM) throughout the duration of your hold. The only dividends that are subject to the 30 day rule are in play dividends (IPDs)

  • The fact that you haven't noticed a single dividend coming in, in 18 months suggests the players you have maybe aren't the best holds?

  • I think there is something in the idea of realising your loss to get on new purchases. I have noticed two (out of many other really good pieces of advice) pieces of advice one of which is to not sell now as to not cement your loss. People are also saying buy now as prices are low and yields are great. Without fresh cash going in, it is hard to reconcile these positions, as to get on the low yield players, you need to realise your loss. I'm slowly taking the bullet on a few purchases to get on some of the big heavy dividend earners, but it is a really sickening position to be cementing huge hits on players that were good purchases for the conditions they were in. But I am now slowly adapting to the new environment.

    The thing I will say if you don't restructure your portfolio right now, which is fair enough, and if you are willing to be patient is that eventually your players will win PB. There have already been 81 different PB winners this season and we have just begun. And the dividends earned should be going up with european football incoming, which means more silver/gold days midweek. If you are patient one will win and hopefully when he does the spread will narrow. It may be a good time then to sell that player, and then get on board with players with massive spreads that are proven dividend winners.

  • I was thinking exactly the same as @Baydog when reading your thread. You seem to think dividends can only be won in the first 30 days which is fundamentally wrong. You’ve also asked us to give opinions without naming a single player in your portfolio. Could you perhaps give us a list, or a screenshot, of who you own?

  • Without knowing your portfolio I can't comment on the specific players however if they've failed to generate any significant dividends in 18 months then they are either unsuited to the PB/MB matrix or possibly part of the "youth bubble" still awaiting their opportunity. Perhaps you may consider posting your current players so any advice can be more targeted & useful?

    i would agree with @Baydog it really does pay to educate yourself with a basic understanding of the platform mechanics to be able to build a successful portfolio, even if you are time poor, this is definitely possible. Understanding how the trading cycles wax & wane is also very important & having a basic strategy of not just who to buy but what performance milestones you need them to hit & any potential exit strategy/pricepoint you need to set.

    I would also stress the most important part of portfolio management, besides a healthy diversity which you seem to have, is regular reviews (weekly, monthly, quarterly whichever you deem appropriate) as over time circumstances will change both with specific players & the way the platform works & rewards different trading strategies. So it's vital that you assess your holds meet the current & future requirements for your individual risk profile on a regular basis.

    CV has clearly had a major effect on the wider economy & FI hasn't avoided the impact, on top of the many recent changes, it has meant extreme turbulence & high price volatility, so if your personal circumstances allow it would probably be better to wait for more platform stability but use the time to assess each holding & whether you want to restructure as & when their prices show signs of recovery.

    Finally "Dividends have long been inconsequential" is factually incorrect, dividends are actually more important than ever before, as they & the consequent yields that they provide, are the main driver of prices & in their absence a players price can simply plummet (no longer artificially supported by FI backed IS). Why would buyers want a player that returned no dividends (or had little prospect of doing so in the future)?

  • I believe that, as long as the dividend structure remains (and increases over time), then the system should be fine. The player values will level out and prices will grow.

    There are two big reasons why prices grow - player performance/dividends, etc and... new money.

    New money is essential to FI and now feels a dangerous time for most to be investing with prices dropping all over. Eventually that will stop and the people will start putting money back in and confidence will rebuild.

    As for your portfolio, I'd recommend you stick to your plan. At £200 it's not an awful amount to lose, even if things go really bad... but you bought in on young players and that wait can be 0 - 3 years before they either make that big impression, or don't. So I'd keep waiting and I believe the prices will get back to where they were and continue rising - in general.

  • Thank you for the amount of response and the details provided. It's helpful to read all of this and digest the meaning.

    It does seem that my understanding of the Divs is not accurate and I have accumulated a few £££s over time (£151) from around £3,000 invested. I'm ok with that as a % return, but the player values dropping means saying goodbye to a fair bit of capital if I sell.

    As has been said, £200 per month isn't a massive investment and I could afford to lose it all / or not get it out for a while, although ideally, I'd like to do something with FI rather than feel a bit let down by what happened recently without any input from me or any sense of justification for an overnight crash.

    I read the rules from start to finish (some 14 pages when you paste them into Word, with over 7,000 words) and I think I completed the task with it left in my mind that, having read about dividends and 30 days on one part of it, I clearly thought it applied to them all, which I admit, is on me.

    I've attached 3 screen shots of my players and they are valued at the Mid rather that Buy price (which is still optimistic I believe).

    I really do appreciate all the feedback.!


  • @NewUser1081 you’ve got a mixed bag there.

    You’ve got some decent PB players who should make you decent returns and at the other end players that will need a transfer to really start moving.

    Personally I’d set sell orders for the ones you want to lose at a value your happy with; once they hit that mark they’ll sell. Remember you have the full 3 years so if you’re not desperate for the cash and not got the time to be an active trader that might be your best option.

    Or if you have more time, monitor the spreads and the best IS price and sell in small chunks and move the cash into players you think will make you the money back.

  • I'd start trimming the portfolio, way too many players for me to manage. Wait for the handbrake to come off and make some offers you are happy with. Try to generate some cash and put it to good use. Try to lower your buy price on some of those holds.

    I personally would lose Foden and Davies, realise that profit, they might come down some more, thats some good money you have right there. You can always buy later on but there are a lot more players on the Index you can play with. Just my own opinion.

    You can also do nothing and see what happens. Some of those holds will see rises for sure

  • @NewUser1081 thats a decent looking portfolio to me. Diverse and spread out nicely. Some people prefer less players bigger holds but in my opinion the current order books favour being spread more thinly because its harder to shift larger holds

  • @Skinny i cant get used to this new name. I have a mate we call skinny because he looks like skinny pete from breaking bad but his names Paul so we call him Skinny Paul. I keep feeling like its him im talking too 🤣🤣

  • @Black-Wolf Maybe I should get a Skinny Pete picture 😎

  • @Skinny no dont do that that will only make it worse 😂

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