Valuing Generational talent & PB monsters



  • Given the recent price volatility across the index it is now glaring obvious that valuing a player will be an important skill for a successful portfolio going forward. It doesn't necessarily involve giving an exact figure for what a player is worth, it can be as vague as under/fair or over valued, but will undoubtedly be an important deciding factor in buying, holding & selling decisions.

    Past PB/MB data shows that players like Neymar, Messi, Kimmich, Bruno, TAA, Ramos produce great dividends returns & their future earnings can be relatively easily modeled adjusting for age, injury, transfer etc with at least some degree of accuracy. How can we most accurately price the great real life players who don't fit this category & who's game doesn't necessarily suit the scoring matrix?

    I don't like the term "generational talent" but the players like Mbappe, Foden, Greenwood, Haaland, Sancho, Fati who all are proving to be potentially great on the pitch, which is reflected in their price, but not yet generating much dividend revenue. Of course MB will be generated around a transfer saga like Sancho to Man Utd but this tends to be one off transitory wins & will lead to a short term price spike & fall away once completed or if it doesn't happen & both parties move on (think Sanchez Arsenal - Man Utd). Even Pogba the best example of a MB monster has proved how fickle pricing for MB alone can be & has lost his revenue stream (& consequent price support) now his main drivers have gone (winning WC, Mourinho spat, transfer saga, arrival of Bruno).

    Price should be supported by yields (from dividend wins) in any sustainable market so how does the high price of these super talented (but low dividend yielders) players remain sustainable? Logically given their obvious talent & potential longevity they should be high priced but this can't yet be justified by their dividend returns, leaving them susceptible to price collapses (on yield grounds) but not on talent/potential. It's something I struggle most with on FI & as a result no longer hold any of these super talented players, having profitably bought & sold them previously - how do others decide on their true value?



  • I guess we've always known it. When you look at the prices of Greenwood, sancho, foden... they always look too expensive. Now the orderbook system has taken away the crutch and they have proved what we all thought (well me anyway) they were.

    Anyone that doesn't return divs on a fairly regular basis is going to see their price continue to drop. People will more than ever buy players as they win divs, and sell the ones that don't.

    I won't be buying anyone that doesn't win / expected to win 10% + in divs per season now unless they are under £1 or so..



  • I think it's very difficult. Most PB winners tend to be older players so it's very difficult valuing young talent. Will they develop a PB game as they develop, or will they just be very good players who don't happen to suit the PB matrix?

    To be honest that's a bit of a gamble and while you can make an informed guess based on position, style of play etc that's all it will be, a guess. As a result they are risky and the price needs to reflect that.

    In general I think these players will remain overpriced, not to the extent they are now but to some degree. There will always be people willing to overpay for them based on potential and the return that can be generated if you call it right. However they aren't all going to hit and the drops for those that don't make it will be savage. Of the ones you mentioned I only held Haaland and Fati before the changes and I've reduced my holdings in Haaland. I think Fati does look like his game suits PB, even at his young age so I'm holding for now, but not buying any more.



  • @Geronimo159387 it’s definitely a tough one I’ve historically stayed away from them as I always felt they were over priced for the potential returns whilst I held them.

    However they do get a lot of pumping and some very vocal accounts hold them, I purchased Cherki on Brown Sunday for a very decent price and I’ve listed him for sale at just below his previous best peak.

    In short I value these players on what I think others believe they are worth, and I hope to profit on those spikes which Order hooks now gives. Buy low and set a sell order higher as I have no intention of holding long term if they sell but keep rising I’m not bothered as I’ve secured a decent profit.



  • MB stands up over the long term for high price players.



  • @Tom77 said in Valuing Generational talent & PB monsters:

    MB stands up over the long term for high price players.

    I get that & must say I've been surprised how the press can recycle what is effectively the same story every single day & generate MB wins over such a prolonged period for the same player. They must either hold him or assume that their readers have very short memories so need to be reminded of the same thing every morning!



  • The only one that interests me is Fati as he looks very special and seems to fit the matrix well looking at his scores so far. The others are overpriced and in some cases don't fit the matrix at all. I'm still baffled by people buying Sancho for anything other than a very short-term intake of MB but even that's gone for another six months.



  • @Erased-Citizen said in Valuing Generational talent & PB monsters:

    The only one that interests me is Fati as he looks very special and seems to fit the matrix well looking at his scores so far.

    These break through players, who have yet to have produced enough reliable PB data I can understand, until they get regular gametime in a fixed position in the playing system they could literally be anything & the odd good or bad score can only be an indication of what's to come.

    Mbappe however, as fantastic a player as he is, has 2 seasons in the most dominant team in the easiest PB league & still looks incapable of producing any decent level of PB revenue, certainly not enough to justify being in the top 3 most expensive players on the index, yet his price has been sustained throughout that period - strange?



  • Lol so I get a down vote because I intend to sell Cherki for a profit wow someone is in a bad mood this morning lol



  • @Sav2000 haha!



  • @GDS said in Valuing Generational talent & PB monsters:

    There will always be people willing to overpay for them based on potential and the return that can be generated if you call it right

    I looked at Foden last year when he was £3.60 as it was pretty clear given what Pep said about him, his clear ability, young, English & the "David Silva's leaving" narrative that the market would buy him & he would rise significantly. Didn't take a genius to work out there was a profitable trade just waiting to be made, I didn't buy in the end (even though it was a dead cert profit IMO) as I struggled to justify his future price at £4/5/6 with my valuation model.

    I would simply have been riding the sentiment train & not truly believing in his value. I'm comfortable with that decision but given the current prices on the best dividend yielders are offering INCREDIBLE value IMHO it should follow that these difficult to value (at least for some of us) young talents are at similar decent prices - I just wish I could convince/prove to myself that this logic holds true.



  • I imagine how a 17 year old Messi would have been valued?

    I think the issue is you are betting on them earning divs, but you only have 3 years for them to do so, they can be the best player in the world but if they aren't earning divs it's pointless buying them!



  • @Geronimo159387 said in Valuing Generational talent & PB monsters:

    @Erased-Citizen said in Valuing Generational talent & PB monsters:

    The only one that interests me is Fati as he looks very special and seems to fit the matrix well looking at his scores so far.

    These break through players, who have yet to have produced enough reliable PB data I can understand, until they get regular gametime in a fixed position in the playing system they could literally be anything & the odd good or bad score can only be an indication of what's to come.

    Mbappe however, as fantastic a player as he is, has 2 seasons in the most dominant team in the easiest PB league & still looks incapable of producing any decent level of PB revenue, certainly not enough to justify being in the top 3 most expensive players on the index, yet his price has been sustained throughout that period - strange?

    Fati seems to now be getting his chance and as a result he has moved into my watchlist. I totally agree with you about Mbappe and there are a few others that are in the same boat. It's also easy to forget that a great player in the real world doesn't always translate into a great player on FI.



  • @howsthebacon said in Valuing Generational talent & PB monsters:

    @Sav2000 haha!

    Looks like I’ve got a stalker someone needs to get a life, but looks like every time I post I get a down vote shame the system makes it anonymous....come out come out whoever you are 🤣





  • @Marksandygill haha you knob 🤣



  • @Sav2000 only joking, never actually down voted any ones post, which is odd considering some of the people on here...:)



  • @Marksandygill oh so the mystery continues.....



  • @Sav2000 I'm just gonna keep downvoting you now to wind you up.

    Jokes, I'll stop there, don't want to damage that well earned reputation.



  • @Geronimo159387 It's difficult to judge. I have Fati and Saka on my Watchlist hoping that they drop in price to be worth the gamble. Saka has, but not Fati, probably because he won his 1st PB recently. If Fati drops below £3, I'll definitely make room to drop him into my port. Infact, if Messi doesn't sign in January a pre-contract with City, or if he renews his contract with Barca, I'll swap him for Fati!


Log in to reply