5th Birthday Bonus Part 2



  • Any idea what's going to happen this week with the part 1 bonus finishing on Thursday night and Part 2 starting on Friday morning?
    Will traders be selling this week to build up a cash reserve to put back in for the 2nd bonus or will this current period of stabilisation continue through to Friday and should we expect a surge from the 16th?
    Interested to get peoples thoughts...



  • Big surge coming at the start of the bonus, followed by a little dip at the end. I expect the bottom end of the market to struggle as money is moved into players from teams with European fixtures coming up, most of them have packed schedules in the next month.



  • What about this week? Do you think people will be selling up to build cash reserves? Are prices likely to drop considerably in the coming days?



  • I assumed they would but the market seems to be doing pretty well, was sort of hoping for a bit of a dip at the end of phase 1 so I could mop up some bargains with what's left of my cash balance as I'm taking advantage of phase 1 as opposed to 2.

    Things don't seem to be slowing though.

    I've creamed off a few high IS sales on Messi/Kane/Lewa etc hoping that there will be a dip at some point, we shall see what happens.

    Whatever happens I see a huge surge early in phase 2 followed by a slight dip to normalise as the weeks go on.



  • @Neil-S I think most people who were planning to sell up round 1 and buy back in round 2 have already done their selling. I am one of these people and I did the majority of my selling at the beginning of the first bonus. I have sold a few holds as spreads have tightened but not enough that I expect that kind of selling would have an impact. Football is picking up now with european fixtures and theres not as much room for maneuvering between the spreads.



  • I've sold up quite a bit over the last couple days since prices increased and spreads tightened. Hoping for a market dip this week so I can buy back in on Friday at lower prices. If that doesn't work then hopefully I wont use up too much of the 8.25% bonus buying back in...



  • @DillyDong said in 5th Birthday Bonus Part 2:

    Big surge coming at the start of the bonus, followed by a little dip at the end. I expect the bottom end of the market to struggle as money is moved into players from teams with European fixtures coming up, most of them have packed schedules in the next month.

    There a load of very good strikers around a pound in the europa league.



  • @Neil-S Friday morning will be hectic though, if you're faced with a surge in prices on Friday will you just hold off? And hope it levels out over the two weeks?



  • I've given up trying to work out what's going to happen...

    I mean I guess many people sold in order to maximise the 2nd part of the bonus, but then when prices dropped did they buy back as higher prices would nullify the 8.25% bonus?

    Or will there be a big spike of people buying on the 16th followed by a drop as prices go up by more than 8.25% and people

    Will there be a big sell off on the 30th or will people have bought to hold for the season

    Iv'e bought the players I want for the season and my lack of ability and funds means I'm not changing!! :)



  • @howsthebacon I think I'll be ready at 7.29am and see how the land lies. All being well snap them back up, if it all goes Pete Tong, I'll wait until near the end of the bonus period...



  • @Neil-S good thinking, not a disaster if you miss the rush in the morning, might end up getting better deals at the end of the month.

    However, people will wanting to be holding on to players rather than selling due to the nature of the bonus. Think that might be why we're seeing such sustained high prices going into Thursday (not exactly the most astute observation I know).



  • @howsthebacon yes, it's a difficult one to read. Although the FI announcement on Friday is really what stimulated the market, it was in decline until then which is what made me think people were focused on Part2. Time will tell!



  • As a general rule that's held true with past buy bonuses: there is always a dip and a few weeks of stagnation at the end as people try to cash out and make a quick buck.
    You have to remember that the average punter on FI holds onto their shares for less than a week. It's not sensible or rational, but it's just how the market behaves. Most people do not have a long term plan when gambling even on a platform like FI where it will do them well to consider a long term strategy.

    Another rule worth considering is that if everyone is expecting something to happen, it is either already priced in or will happen much earlier than expected as people try to beat the rush.



  • @Neil-S I'd argue there we some rises prior to the announcement but it definitely pushed it further. But good luck with whatever you decide to do and hope you get the best out of the bonus mate.



  • What do we think about opening up the offers again?

    Any chance of it happening within this bonus period or do people see them pushing it way down the road and we're going to be stuck with the -1p selling rule for the foreseeable future?



  • @Snrub I suspect if the 1p thing will be here until we get depth of market, which I suspect they are busting a ball to get sorted, possibly for the 16th of Nov when the 2% commission on buys is due to start?



  • @DillyDong
    'Another rule worth considering is that if everyone is expecting something to happen, it is either already priced in or will happen much earlier than expected as people try to beat the rush.'

    Very true! Part of me thinks I'm late to the party on this one but let's see how things progress over the next couple of days....



  • In theory there will be a small decline this week and a rise on Friday morning. If you are playing for the second bonus period and hold a player you can sell for 5.50 and think he wont be worth more than 5.90 on Friday morning, then why not sell? There is the bonus of refreshing shares too.

    If you miss the assumed buy frenzy Friday morning, then perhaps it is best to wait for the fixtures. Imagine what will happen to Lewa's price or Messi's or Ronaldo's if they finish with a poor score? There is so much volatility and game days have been terrible lately.



  • @Neil-S I'm not sure the announcement was what stimulated the market. Shares bought on Friday would have been eligible for a lot of IPDs (7 games in 30 days) for teams in domestic and European competitions. Those traders who had a shopping list were getting their business done early.



  • @MG3 definitely a mix of things, people realising the bargains represented too much value, the IPD for the busy fixture list, the bonus and then the announcement just gave everything a bit of a nudge.


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