Youth



  • Does anyone see this coming back? I hold a lot of youth for the hope of cap app, appears thatll be hard to come by so I'm kinda stuck.

    Do we think prices will go up or is it very much based on the matrix the prices now



  • @HoseLayingLorry Still very possible, however you need to be "more right" than ever nowdays for it to pay off.

    Just my thoughts.



  • Give it time. When the current div earners look to be overpriced then people will hunt for prospective value in youth.



  • @HoseLayingLorry mate, FI is constantly about cycles. Youth is out at the moment but will be flavour of the month again soon. With the exception of Cherki, Fati, Haaland the rest are bloody cheap at the moment. Bargains galore. But you will need patience as they will be earning you fuck all divs.
    CA will be back with a vengeance . Just take a little time for sentiment to pick up again. Ppl simply won’t be able to ignore the dividend yield on offer for long. Put out the milk and the hedgehog’s will come sniffing.
    In the early days good traders were almost tripling their money in a year. There hasn’t been an opportunity like those early golden days....until now. With depressed prices and a monstrous dividend increase, all the factors are in place. We should take advantage of it.



  • Last year it was October-December that the youth started to really rise. Either the lesser players getting more game time (Sofiane Diop at Monaco springs to mind) or the young players really building hype.

    I was on a lot of non-PB youth - Daka, Haland, Malen - that were exposed by European competition and they rocketed with PB potential and transfer hype so if you can find this year's non-PB dark horse (Salzburg last year, Ajax the year before) then you're in the game. I have a hunch on PSV this season and am also hopeful with Benfica.



  • The majority of my portfolio is made up of youth players, I hold lots of International U21 players for France, Spain, Netherlands, Portugal and Germany.

    I do it because I don't want to obsess over this platform, I hold maybe four PB players, on the very brink of earning good money. This way I can neglect my portfolio and return after 2 - 3 weeks, without having to worry or be constantly on my toes.

    The youth players are only a decent season, or transfer away from being the next Haaland, Trent, Sancho.



  • @HoseLayingLorry said in Youth:

    Does anyone see this coming back? I hold a lot of youth for the hope of cap app, appears thatll be hard to come by so I'm kinda stuck.

    Do we think prices will go up or is it very much based on the matrix the prices now

    People will always want to buy the young. Just yesterday, a friend of mine messaged me to say "Buy Eduardo Camavinga, he's the next Pogba"... to which I replied "He's more expensive than the actual Paul Pogba and his spreads are tighter too" ha.

    I'm not saying that I'd recommend it because I think that for every Haaland there's 100 who never amount to anything but the wonder kid will always be a fascination on here. Eduardo was practically COVID proof too.

    Screen Shot 2020-10-13 at 06.29.11.png



  • Quality youth who perform will always rise, whether a PB threat or not. Especially the attack minded ones.



  • @Dan-The-Man on the subject of Haaland, do you feel he will end up a glorified Lukaku who will maintain a price and fluctuate with IPDS? Obviously lots have touched on his relatively poor PB game to date,or will he perhaps end up more like lewandowski & become solid over the years at a top side in your opinion.



  • @Roon said in Youth:

    @Dan-The-Man on the subject of Haaland, do you feel he will end up a glorified Lukaku who will maintain a price and fluctuate with IPDS? Obviously lots have touched on his relatively poor PB game to date,or will he perhaps end up more like lewandowski & become solid over the years at a top side in your opinion.

    People who bought in to him want the MB from a Man Utd move, not the PB.



  • @Dan-The-Man My thoughts too. But you require Utd to have another atleast 'decent' season of top 4 football and no turmoil for Haaland to consider it I imagine.



  • @Dan-The-Man wasn't in relation to today's increase.... just wanted your overall opinion was all.



  • @Roon said in Youth:

    @Dan-The-Man wasn't in relation to today's increase.... just wanted your overall opinion was all.

    Sorry, I was in somewhat of a rush this morning.

    My thoughts on Haaland are pretty simple. He's destined for a major money move to either Man Utd, Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, Juventus or Real Madrid and until he gets one of those moves, speculation will be rife about him and therefore he will win MB periodically.

    He is the new Ronaldo that we've all been looking for.

    That said... do I think any player is worth £7?

    No.

    Why?

    Because:

    • The yields at that level are usually poor
    • The risks are high
    • There's significantly better value on the market

    But is he good for Trend Trading? His price is fairly volatile but when the 4% commission comes in that's challenging.



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Youth:

    @Roon said in Youth:

    @Dan-The-Man wasn't in relation to today's increase.... just wanted your overall opinion was all.

    Sorry, I was in somewhat of a rush this morning.

    My thoughts on Haaland are pretty simple. He's destined for a major money move to either Man Utd, Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, Juventus or Real Madrid and until he gets one of those moves, speculation will be rife about him and therefore he will win MB periodically.

    He is the new Ronaldo that we've all been looking for.

    That said... do I think any player is worth £7?

    No.

    Why?

    Because:

    • The yields at that level are usually poor
    • The risks are high
    • There's significantly better value on the market

    But is he good for Trend Trading? His price is fairly volatile but when the 4% commission comes in that's challenging.

    interesting comment about the 4% commission. Do you think FI are shooting themselves in the foot? Because people are more likely to hold players for dividends rather than flip players due to the extra commission and therefore less profitability of this strategy. So overall FI will lose out on more sell commission as people aren't trading as much.



  • @chaps1988 said in Youth:

    interesting comment about the 4% commission. Do you think FI are shooting themselves in the foot? Because people are more likely to hold players for dividends rather than flip players due to the extra commission and therefore less profitability of this strategy. So overall FI will lose out on more sell commission as people aren't trading as much.

    FI want you to hold.

    Yes, they make money from commission but the real money for FI, is when they sell you a player under one set of conditions, then you hold whilst those conditions change and now you're stuck with something nobody wants.

    The longer you hold, the more likely the conditions you bought the player under will change. Maybe he'll get a transfer, maybe he'll hit a bad run of form, maybe he'll get injured, change position, get a new coach who plays a different style of football... Maybe someone else will hit form or take over the media.

    Look at Bruno, he came in and dominated. Turned Man Utd's fate around last year but since he joined, Cavani, van de Beek and Telles have signed for the club and all of a sudden he's not the main story in the media. Cavani is. Meanwhile there's a chance Telles takes over certain Set Pieces reducing Bruno's PB scores.

    Does that mean there won't be days where Bruno takes a penalty, picks up the GWG and the media... of course not but it certainly reduces his odds of winning often. If Cavani scores (and he is prolific when on form), Bruno will have a tough time taking media and we don't know how Donny's PB game further impacts Bruno...

    So now you have a whole bunch of traders who are holding a high priced player, some bought him hat £11.40... but if Cavani is dominating the early part of the season's MB and Sancho dominates the off season, where does Bruno come in? He's already down to £7, this time next year he could be the new Pogba on £3.80 with hardly any bids.



  • @Dan-The-Man another ‘yawn’ comment from you. Really, do you not have anything better to do with your time than try and bad mouth FI? Very sad. If it’s so bad just withdraw and leave - why would you waste your time on forums of something you don’t want to invest in?

    Your comment also makes no sense. Obviously FI want you to trade for the commission, that’s how they make money. Someone is always going to be stuck with player X, it doesn’t matter who holds them cos those shares are in circulation, so they’d happily see player X traded around willy nilly picking up commission and your point of FI selling you a dud exists throughout.



  • @Dan-The-Man a lot of the things you've mentioned are just the potential risks of playing FI, most people are aware of these risks hence why many have a diverse portfolio to mitigate these possibilities. Of course some inexperienced traders or players who are easily convinced by people pumping online, will go in and splash £11 on Bruno but when they did sure surely they knew a lot of this price was just based on people rushing in to buy him to make a quick buck, it's a bubble. Took me about a week to realise Sancho was a bubble when I first joined, I looked at his returns and the players around him and his price was unrealistic. The people buying in were surely buying in hoping it would keep shooting up based on pure hype and then sell on, no one was paying 14 quid because they thought he could return the divs in the next three years and if they were, they weren't very clued up and that's their fault ultimately.

    You've made a lot of valid points which take aim at FI and it's hard to argue them but the points raised here are just the obvious risks of investing in a virtual football player stock market. No one is guaranteed to be top dog at their club, no one is guaranteed to be fit all their playing career etc. It's a fickle and unpredictable sport at times but I think you have to just accept that when you invest in FI.

    Saying Bruno might be the 3.80 next year, its just so hypothetical, anyone buying anyone has to accept that their player could be 0.10 next year if the worst case scenario happens. This is why you buy based on what you think someone is worth, if he's overpriced you avoid, if he's underpriced jump in. If the situation changes at his club or with his fitness, it's not FI's fault...you just have to make sure you have contingencies in place and cross you fingers more players come good than turn bad.



  • @Dan-The-Man surely this makes no sense. How does it help FI at all if you hold?

    Whether you hold or not, someone still has the bet. They don't care who. If you sell they get more comission. If you hold they get less. That's the only thing that changes.

    FI don't care about the value of your port or whether you personally make a profit or not.



  • @chaps1988 said in Youth:

    @Dan-The-Man another ‘yawn’ comment from you. Really, do you not have anything better to do with your time than try and bad mouth FI?

    How is it bad mouthing FI, to explain their business model? You get that it's a business right?

    If you think they're in this to make you rich, you need to wake up. They're a company, it's their goal to extract your money... and it's not bad mouthing them to point out the ways they have profited. It's no different to saying they profit from commission.

    If it’s so bad just withdraw and leave - why would you waste your time on forums of something you don’t want to invest in?

    Leaving quickly would cost me a fortune. Do you think it's a sensible idea to just to instant sell thousands of pounds worth of shares with 40-100% spreads in most cases?

    Also, I happen to enjoy FI, in the same way that I enjoy the Dream Team. Does that mean I have to be a super fanboy and ignore the obvious? When I'm playing Blackjack at a casino, I know the house has the edge, does that mean I should never play Blackjack? If I explained what the edge is in Blackjack to you, am I bad mouthing the casino?

    Your comment also makes no sense. Obviously FI want you to trade for the commission, that’s how they make money.

    Commission is one way they make money... another way, is to sell you a player at a high price... and then make him practically worthless.

    Look at Pogba.

    They sold him for £26 per share just 18 months ago. You can sell him for around £10 (adjusted). That's £26 in their kitty and they've paid out around £8 in dividends against that. Then they opened up MB to the entire market, which meant he wouldn't win MB anywhere near as often... then they changed the PB Matrix, which resulted in Pogba winning just 2p in PB last season... compared with the 61p he won the previous season. Then they added value to other areas of the market (keepers, TOTM, IPD's), pulling even more demand away from Pogba, which saw his price crash and keep on crashing.

    Once they lower his price to the point where it's less than his expected dividend liability, they can buy that share back. For example if they think he's going to pay out £5... but someone is listing him at £3, they get first dibs on that player and save themselves £2, closing the bet in the process and banking the £15 profit.



  • @Dan-The-Man it doesn’t matter to FI who owns the player, the shares are still in existence. So the more hands that player goes through, the better, as FI rinse commission in the trading process from one trader to another to another, and so on. What isn’t to get about this?!

    As for your stance on FI - you compare it to doing fun things that you enjoy, such as Blackjack. Well, let me ask you this - when you play blackjack, do you sit there and curse the croupier or the house because you didn’t win and it’s rigged in favour of the house? No, you have a drink and a laugh whilst gambling, sometimes winning, sometimes losing. I suggest you take this stance with your FI journey if it is only a bit of fun to you, and don’t drag us all into your negative tedious rants!


Log in to reply