Order Books... Are They All That?
I never wanted these... I don't really get the demand... OK you have a price in your mind when you want to buy a future... you have a price in your mind you want to sell a future... But surely that changes subject to situation?
Take market leader Jadon Sancho for example... I want to buy him for under £10... say 9.99 top... I need him to fall in form, break a leg, announce his hatred for Man Utd for that to happen... But then he becomes much less than the 'order price' I currently value him at?
Should I want to sell him for example, I put a cap on £15... He scores a hat-trick, Man Utd move in for him, he scores again, his value rises through transfer speculation... But do i cut at £15???? Or do i keep going until the media buzz dies down? After all he's earning dividends by the day for two weeks after a transfer despite an inevitable dip on signing for United?
My point, isn't best practice to sell upon him signing elsewhere? or when he's at the height of his game? And buy when he's at the lowest point... Not necessarily mid-way through a dip which sparks your order off?
I've always felt the best investors on Football Index invest on 'gut' feeling and by 'ordering' there is no 'knee jerk gut' that allows you to take immediate opportunity and profit.
The aim is to buy low, beat the rush, jump on the train if you know it'll progress... sell high, beat the fall... Cash in when profit is good... For me 'order books' are just another 'tool' that slows down the volatility in the game, that makes it less exciting, that makes things less profitable with everybody wanting their 'price'.
Any contrasting thoughts?
@dannypea In terms of demand and the Sancho eg i'm not sure OBs really have that much of an impact. If you wanted to buy Sancho for under £10 under the old system you still would've needed a circumstance to change in order for him to drop? Equally on the other side for selling at peak.
I think the difference now comes from playing the spreads, which can be quite volatile and move pretty quickly. Also, now the spreads have tightened more people are having to use the buy now price which will also lead to quite quick changes.
@scfc so how will you use it?
I've held Mo Salah for example for near enough 3 years.. Now is the time to sell him but by requesting an 'order' for say his buy price... I know I won't get it unless he scores a hat-tirck, by then i may as well keep for another day and cash out after he's won dividends or spiked up even higher?
My point is surely that 'set fee' changes all the time?
At one stage for example... I wouldn't sell Pogba for £20.... Now i wouldn't buy for £3.78... The dynamics change due to situation... By 'ordering' you are adverse to your own portfolio!
@dannypea Yea I follow now and see your point. It's an interesting one because I've actually posted a few times about how I see this as a positive.
I've always been terrible at selling, i'd watch a player rise and then really struggle to sell even if I thought they were at their peak. Now I have quite a lot of my players up for sale continuously at prices a fair bit above their current price and whilst it's almost guaranteed I won't sell at their peak, it's still at a price that will be profitable for me.
So with the Salah example, if I identified I wanted to sell him then i'd list at a price that I think he could spike to after scoring a hat trick. I might then have him up for sale for a few weeks, if he does then score a hat trick and sell then I'd be happy because I know it's at a price I was comfortable with regardless of if someone sold for a bit more. This removes the emotion of when i'd be watching the instant sell price during a game when something like that would happen.
I do now find myself scanning through my bids/offers quite regularly to make sure they seem current.
Coriolanus last edited by
@dannypea spot on. but we have them now.
best benefit of them;
Imagine before you saw Immobile (eg) had a lovely set of games in November. You buy in Oct predicting a lot of people will jump on the Nov IPD window... you need to wait for 5000 odd shares to be bought and then list and sell to market on the rise for your plan to come good.
Now with spreads... you don't need the rise or X number of users to buy X number of shares.
You can buy cheap using the bids on a wide spread when the player is not on trend.... then 1 Person or a few people upping their bids closer to the first game can close the spread massively and you can just IS ...without any shares being bought you can have made big profit at low risk.
We can pretty much go back to the basics of match day trading... bid on Monday IS on Friday etc
Now we have OB the active traders will make profit between the spreads mostly. Long term traders will find it more difficult RE CA... but … the yields should improve.
Karl last edited by Karl
@Coriolanus At the moment the platform is suited to short term flipping, but it also massively helpful to long term traders who are able to buy long term holds extremely cheaply.
By holding trades for both the long and short term, both will see an inevitable increase as and when players perform better but also as FI grows organically
Some good points... Certainly see benefit now in 'ordering'... for example if a player goes up 5/10p in quick time you can set your price for the amount above so it kicks in when they do, in the hope that by capturing the rise early you'll benefit ahead of the spike!
So investing now in Salah at 10p higher his price, and should he score a hat-trick tomorrow that will go up 20/30p plus so you get him on the upward trend, but by setting the price and he has a stinker you don't end up buying, so you can simply reset!
Can be used effectively for those situations i guess! Plus you'll get goalscorer divs on the day as well as any price rise... Players simply won't go up in value if they don't score so won't hit your order price.
Almost like a 'cover bet'... 'IF' the player does well you can auto-purchase at the earliest opportunity, if they do badly your order won't come into play!
Londoner last edited by
@dannypea Good to hear from you, mate. You've been quiet for too long.
Coriolanus last edited by
@dannypea you make good points... but perhaps theres simple benefits you aren't seeing. You know in the old days how fast a desirable player could suddenly have a big sell queue and if you then wanted out you were at the back of it? i.e. Bruno just before Covid.. he'd peaked at £10.25 then spent weeks at around £9.45 or so. Now if you are at the back of the queue you can jump it by undercutting. There's a lot less rigmarole to buying and selling … you see what the top bid is and the lowest offer and you can decide where to pitch yourself.
As a patient buyer you also don't have to be online 24 hrs a day waiting for a dip due to an inury etc. you can have bids in ready and go out for the day (or indeed set offers on your players to sell if they spike stupidly on a goal).
As a long term holder there aren't many benefits but, if you are holding... doesn't matter what the sell/buy mechanics are :D
They let you buy and sell quick,thats it really.Before thosands of shares jammed in a log jam not selling and that protected the prices but it didnt provide profit for the app developers .They want more trades.I think if cov19 vaccine is here soon then it will be an enjoyable platform again.I mis the old days of football 24?7.The new football is not for me,no crowds etc.Just hope the football survives otherwise we are all up shit creek.