My 101 strategy for reseaching and purchase. Basic user guide.
Hi there FI traders, old and new.
I have been a bit more active on the forum recently, and I have noticed a few threads titled “how do you research?“ or “what sites do you use to research players?“, and I thought I would put together a very basic post, on the types of things I look for in a player when purchasing.
What I wanted to do, is to also give you two players, who I believed would be worth buying on a short and long term, for the IPD's (in play dividends) and for general growth over a 3 year period, including potential PB (player bonus) and TOTM (team of the month) in the hope to tender to all needs.
To begin with, if I am buying a player for the short term, in order to cash in on the 30 day IPD period, I begin by looking at fixtures. I looked at the champions league teams and the europa league teams, as these teams are playing 7 times during a 30 period, and european cup scoring is worth x1.25 normal scoring. Typically the players that participate in these competitions make up the vast majourity of PB scoring, and also make the TOTM.
I decided against choosing players from teams playing in the champions league, as I could not see one team who had an easy run of games, and instead opted for a team playing in the Europa League.
Below I have highlighted teams in bold who I believed would do well in the 30 day period for IPD, and also who are likely to go on to progress. In red are the two teams I decided to go with, after looking at their domestic fixtures also;
Next I use two basic websites for stat comparison, one is transfermarkt and the other is whoscored. Transfermarkt is great for looking at details player stats, and whoscored has a more accurate scoring system, closer to that of the FI.
My first team is Roma, so load Roma into transfermarkt search and I looked at their fixtures. I did this to check who they are playing, and also who they have recently played to look at both their form, and the team they have started with.
Roma looked to have a good set of fixtures, and haven't had a terrible run of form, but are yet to really start scoring goals.
I then look at their player stats, by clicking STATS and All seasons.
Now, as I said, they haven't had a great goal scoring start to the season, this is both a positive and negative thing. It's a negative because they migth be struggling, but looking at previous games I think they're just finding their feet with new players. It's a positive, because it gives me a whole host of players to look at.
I say this because, sometimes you can me 3-8 games into a season, and central defenders have scored 1-2 goals, the forward has scored 5-8 goals, and when looking at individual player stats, particularly with defenders, they score between 3-8 goals a season, and they're fairly spread out. Therefore lack of goals and assists can mean there's plenty of players to choose from.
When looking for a player, for both short and long term I consider the following, their age, the position they play, their goal scoring record, the players they're playing amongst (this could be the most important one).
With my set of considerations, I picked out Carlos Perez. He might not be the obvious choice, he is young, comes with little experience but has a decent record, and bags of potential. I had a look at his stats, by clicking on him and looking at STATS, All seasons.
Like I mentioned, limited experience, but what stood out for me was that he is family with the squad, although he is a new transfer this season, and more importantly he has Europa League experience and a goal.
It turns out a fair few of his appearance last season were as a substitute, and with Roma having sold a few players, and a few out injured, they're a little thin in that area, and it could be his opportunity to shine.
Now, before I commit to anything, you have to check FI, make sure he is not overpriced, have a look to see what opta stats are available.
His current price is £1.16, which seems very reasonable given he is young and playing in Europa League in a decent team within a relatively easy group. His 1 Year chart is not volatile (up and down like a rollercoaster), he seems stable, so I won't loose money if he doesn't perform well straight away, and I can see he has spiked twice in the past, taking his price up to the £1.58 mark. This means there are traders interested in buying when he scores, or when mentioned in the media.
Next I look at his stats, because this is where he will score to either make PB, or to reach TOTM. Now, to be honest, at the moment he is some way off gaining either of those accolades, but he is showing potential. Given he has only 1 start and 1 substitute appearance, and only 1 assist, he has a half decent score of 170, which tells me his game matches quite well to the Football Index scoring system.
For me Perez has ticked all the boxes I would want to see for a young player, in a team without obviously over glamorised players, with the potential to improve his PB game, and score a few goals within the next 30 days. I don't believe he is going to blow-up, I don't think he is going to rocket in the short term, but I think there's a good chance I could buy now, and sell after a goal or two, or, buy now, get what I can in IPDs for the next 30 days, and then hold and watch him develop.
Villarreal, I will make this explanation much shorter. Again I looked at the fixtures, and they seemed fair for a 30 day period, and Villarreal look a stronger team this season.
Again I loaded them into transfermarkt, and again there haven't been many goals scored, which once again can be as much a positive as a negative.
The player that stood out to me, because of his age and that he is starting games (before I realised the Arsenal link), was Pau Torres, a centre-back.
This purchase is a little different for a few reasons. Firstly, I rarely go for defenders, until recently with the dividend increase, only because I find it difficult personally to get excited about a centre-back, but this is as much about money as it is about pleasure, in fact the two coincide.
There's not much history to look at with Torres, I can see he started a lot of games last season, and his average score looks good on whoscored for the 19/20 season, plus he grabbed two goals, which isn't great, but it means he can score.
Onto Football Index, again, nothing here to get me going, but there are positives from a very substantial looking graph. Firstly his 1 year view is very stable, it means he is very unlikely to lose value any time soon. He has a high point of around £1.05, which means there's about £0.20p or so growth to come, and this is considering he did pretty much nothing last season to grab the headlines.
In Villarreal he is not surrounded by big names, or by any real MB (media buzz) stars, so hitting the back of the net might make a few headlines. So far he is looking like a safe, but boring punt.
That was until I found he is linked to both Manchester Untied and Arsenal, with Arsenal apparently having a contract to be signed for a January transfer. Now given he has done nothing in terms of goals, or media, but he is within a good team in Villarreal, in a decent group, there's immediate growth in value.
What I did next was look at where he could potentially be, in the Arsenal team.
Arsenal's defense are ridiculously cheap, which in my opinion is great news for Torres. I had to go to page two to find their regular CB starters in Holding, Luiz and Kolasinac, with only Magalhaes on the first page at £0.84p.
This means he could be the equivilent of Ruiz for Man City at £0.86p (underpriced because he hasn't played yet, I expect a big rise), or Maguire at Utd £1.38, Virgil van Dijk at £1.89, the list goes on.
I think he will overtake Magalhaes in price, not because of ability, but because Magalhaes is Brazilian, and typically European CB are higher priced because they have the potential to play in more International cups.
Add on top of this the potential of MB (media buzz), when he signs, this looks like a sensible purchase.
And that is it, biggest post I have made, and I hope it helps someone. I'd appreciate it if more experienced FI traders would also add their opinion, and thoughts for additional methods or considerations. This isn't something to be mind blowing or to set a standard, it is a basic benchmark for researching.
Thanks for reading, and good luck.
Great post. I will read and digest it a bit later after dinner :)
Excellent post. Bonus points because my niece calls me "Uncle Beard"!
Great post, infact best in a long time.
howsthebacon last edited by
@UncleBeard great stuff, helpful for new and old users. Appreciate the effort that went into this.
weerab last edited by
Great post mate thanks for putting in the effort
Fabulous insight into your thought process and available statistics.
Thanks for posting.
jimmyb1700 last edited by
Great post, really informative and I like the way you have made sure you are accessible to new users by explaining abbreviations but also nicely presented your research methods so that all can learn from. 👏👏
Outstanding post. Really helpful detail.
Doug s last edited by
Nice work mate. 🍻
@Baydog my two nephews know me only by that name haha.
Dan The Man last edited by Dan The Man
Thanks for that. Cracking post and a great insight into your thought pattern. Might I suggest that it's time to update your research technique and toolset though, to better reflect the monumental changes that have been made to FI.
"His (Carles Perez) 1 Year chart is not volatile (up and down like a rollercoaster), he seems stable, so I won't loose money if he doesn't perform well straight away"
The FI Graph Can Be Very Misleading
The '1 Year' graph on FI, factors in far too many past incarnations of the Index to make the data overly useful in most scenarios, especially for newbies who don't know the history of the platform. The 1 Year graph contains:
A large period of time where you could ONLY buy a player at the actual BUY price and where it was easy to sell at the BUY price too (Pre-COVID).
A significant period of time where it was very difficult for anyone to sell players at all with 40% spreads across the board. Creating a false sense of stability.
Then a period of time where traders could bid low on players, effectively making the Sell Price, the new Buy Price, and the BUY PRICE shown... effectively some imaginary number.
And then this new time period since Offers have been introduced, which included Brown Sunday.
The reason I point this out, is because you identified Carles Perez as having stable year with low volatility based on his 1 Year graph but the truth is, he has indeed been volatile but the 'rollercoaster' is not shown on FI's 1 Year graph because that graph doesn't track his Sell Price, which has been moving up and down between £1.35 and 92p. Here's a screen shot of his price since May.
Index Price Alerts
This is a must going forward.
Here's you can use the Instant Sell tracking, to get a rough idea of what you need to be buying this player at. For example, in the past month Pau Torres has spent a large chunk of time at 66p and the majority of the month between between 72p and 65p. If you were looking at this graph, on the day he spiked to 84p... you'd be able to see that you were buying at a high point.
I'd also recommend adding FI Scout to your toolset if you're going to assess PB scores.
FI Scout tracks all of the players PB and MB wins, along with their PB scores for each fixture.
So for example, you can see Pau Torres has never won PB or MB.
What his top 5 scores are.
What his last 5 scores were...
And if you want to view his scores for every game last season, you can...
FI Data Centre
It's worth a note of caution... FI's data across the platform is pretty horrendous. They still list Banega as been a Seville midfielder even though he transferred months ago... BUT... One bit of data they have given us, which could be useful is their graph on PB/MB history in their data centre.
This gives you an idea of how many times, Pau Torres has come close to winning MB/PB.
This can be useful for finding players who frequently score really high PB, but miss out because other players out performed them on that day, rather than them being bad at PB/MB. For example we can see that Pau Torres's highest score, was slightly higher than the average PB win, just 1 time and for the most part and on another occasion he wasn't miles under the bar.
The Data Centre is a beta... and FI's data is misleading/inaccurate so often that it's difficult to trust that those graphs are accurate but you can see "USUAL WINNING SCORE" number at least and if you have any doubts over the actual PB figures, you can check them against Scout. Worth noting, that the USUAL WINNING SCORE figure, itself could somewhat inaccurate as we don't know how they reached that figure or how they handled the UCL Match Day bonus PB. Obviously on a UCL day, the score needed to win PB is significantly higher.
Just some food for thought.
Mintyfresh last edited by
@UncleBeard nice work and thanks for sharing.
For me, I don't get too bogged down in the stats sites, as past performance isn't necessarily a guide to the future, especially for the younger players on a upward curve. That said, you've struck a nice balance between judging the squads, the upcoming fixtures and your knowledge of those, then looking at the historic stats to tie it all together, which makes sense.
Doesn't mean it's a style that suits everyone, but it's always interesting to hear how others play the game, especially when it's so thought through.
Great to hear this stuff talked about on the forum again.
Mine isn't quite as detailed but I have a small video on the sources that I use to pick players:
Hope it helps
@Dan-The-Man this is wonderful, thank you, and it's exactly the type of response I was after whenever
asking for others to contribute with hints and tips.
Great additional resources and explanation of how to use them and why, with a few things in there that I hadn't checked or considered.
Also it's very important for newbies to realise that there's not a lot of good data that FI supply, to aid making good purchases and true player statistics.
It's difficult to explain why the graphical data they show on player profiles should be taken with a pinch of salt, but you did a great stating why.
I use indexpricealerts.com, so don't know why I didn't use it in my original post haha, but I have to say I haven't used it for tracking sell price, so this is new technique for me too.
Thanks for taking the time to post!
Great thread this - IndexPriceAlerts is the one for me now. I will use a mixture of the others, but the price history is the key part for me.
Indicators, if you know how to use them are very useful too.
Great read. I did a very similiar thing (less detail) regarding the fixtures and Europa League teams. ...
Didnt research the players so much but went with Asenjo & Chukwueze (Villareal), Skov (Hoffenheim), Max Arnold (Wolfsburg), Oyarzabal (Sociedad) and Kane (Spurs)
@Abaalan great picks, a few that I considered.