Current Thoughts

  • As I no longer frequent the forum on a regular basis I did say I would occasionally post my thoughts on the direction of the index and offer some insight into how I am currently trading and why. Unfortunately these posts may be a little long but so have quite a few of my previous posts going back nearly 3 years.

    24 hour Market Metrics

    This is a welcome addition even if we do not know the full details of how the figures are produced. I am not surprised with the active trader numbers (guessing it is all those who transact business within the 24 hour period) as I have never bought into the figures of 100's of 1,000's of registered users. A product like this does not make its money on random short term users but needs a growing band of regular traders who love the product. It seems like 3,000 to 4,000 people are trading on a day to day basis and this is a sound number for FI to build on. Currently roughly £10 million is trading weekly producing gross weekly income at 2% commission of £200,000. Whilst I very much doubt this covers dividends, promotions, salaries and marketing etc for what is still a fledgling technology based gambling company it is way ahead of the majority of tech start ups and is why FI is both winning awards and able to continue to get funding to accelerate its planned growth.

    Avoiding Another Market Crash

    We all know the introduction of order books/removal of instant sell could and should have been handled better but it has been and gone and there is no going back. In the long term it may prove a watershed moment in the company's history as it will be seen as the point in which they had to massively improve both there communications and governance (no help to those who suffered) and so far I do think those things are significantly better.

    However I do believe for things to get substantially better and for the number of regular traders to grow substantially over the next 6 months they do need a little luck. To avoid another crash when they actually do implement fully functioning order books and Nasdaq style trading conditions could do to look like this:

    Wall to Wall Football - Therefore no more covid cancellations
    PB - Messi/Neymar/KDB/TAA/Kimmich need to be winning lots and especially gold days
    MB - Pogba/Kane/Salah/Ronaldo need to be winning plenty
    The hotly tipped cheaper players need to pick up bronze/silver wins
    IPD Strikers need to keep finding the net

    I believe FI may already be able to launch full order books and Nasdaq but would like everything to be in there favour and the above conditions would have trader confidence at a high as these players have so many shares in circulation that demand would be high rather than traders wanting to rush for the door. FI will also have a good idea if those who wanted/needed to sell up have done.

    The VVD Savings Account

    With bank accounts paying so little why not treat yourself to the nearest very low risk 6 months savings account. Historically every high profile player to suffer a major injury drops dramatically in price and then slowly bounces back as each month passes by until there return. I honestly believe by next season VVD will have an instant sell price of at least £1.60 and as he can be picked up between £1.21 - £1.26 that is a nice 20% return for what I believe is no risk (plus maybe some MB as well). Not the most exciting trade but no different to investing in keepers and maybe with more upside as he could reach £1.80 - £2.00.

    Show Bouna Sarr some love

    This guy has just transferred to Bayern Munich the most dominant team in European club football who score goals for fun! He is the back up to Pavard at right back but is far more attack minded. He will see plenty of league action as Pavard will need rest and has had injury problems. Sarr played the full 90 minutes of the last league game with a PB of 190 (1 assist) if he plays 15 games it will be hard for his price to fall as he will get assists and hopefully a goal or 2 if Pavard gets injured he will play so much more. Take a look at the rest of the defence:

    Alphonso Davies £3.56
    Benjamin Pavard £1.94
    Lucas Hernandez £1.26
    Nicholas Sule £1.04
    David Alaba £1.06
    Bouna Sarr £0.53

    Obviously all available cheaper through matching - I actually believe he could produce 100% growth by Christmas and if he does not my guess is you will still be able to sell for what you paid.

    Little and Often

    Finally for those with time there are plenty of players who you can buy around the £1 mark and sell for £1.15 hours/days/weeks later on a regular basis. I have roughly 20 of these where I hold 250 shares and keep adding 50 to sell for profit. This means that I am pocking a few quid each week and always have some of the 250 eligible for IPD's. This does not make me rich but enhances the fun and creates new funds for the VVD savings account.

    Have fun, do not gamble to much and remember turnover is vanity profit is sanity :)

  • @Fletch good post 👍

  • Your post makes perfect sense,I fear that the panicking has already started as on a group on Facebook people are already starting to panicking oh dear here we are again.
    By the way I am sticking around and if another crash happens I will do the same as last time sit tight don't sell or buy so however it goes I won't have regrets

  • @R9inter I've got my bids in. Facebook seems to be the most jittery of the platforms (glad I've not used it for 10+ years!) 😂

    I can confirm slack is standing firm & Twitter is unpredictable at the best of times.

    It's usually either all rosy or end of the world doom & gloom.

    Take the middle ground.

  • @Ericali oh definitely, I don't really use Facebook only joined the group to see what is the sentiment on there ,I am sticking to my guns ,in the worse case scenario I hold it as it is at the end of the day AC can't let the platform go to shit or he will also loose money and reputation and that would damage any future venture

  • @Ericali the dooming thread appeared already lol

  • @R9inter they've said it a few times recently, they have never been in a better position financially.

    The liability being removed from house IS going has left them a massive pot of cash.

    We all need to relax & enjoy the ride. 🚀

  • @Fletch picked up Chicken Bouna this weekend - meaning to ask someone who knows him well what they think things will look like for him going forward - he has impressed when he has came in so I think he'll be more than just back up. Flick has proved he is happy to rotate this season and after European games I won't be surprised if Sarr fills in for some of the easier league games which means lots of chances for assists and even goals.

  • @howsthebacon said in Current Thoughts:

    @Fletch picked up Chicken Bouna this weekend

    An ideal foil for Declan Rice

  • With my Declan Rice I prefer a Chicken Atsu Curry 👍🏻

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