Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?



  • A couple of months ago this guy was in the Champions League Final and today he captained Chelsea.

    Since joining Chelsea he has posted some solid base scores (including one from a 0-0 draw where a goal from his team mates would have put him above the red line on the graph below) and picked up his fair share of MB along the way.

    Screen Shot 2020-11-01 at 00.47.06.png

    More than that, Chelsea are 4 clean sheets on the bounce with him at the back and now that Mendy has replaced the shambolic Kepa, and their attackers are fit, it feels like Silva has a pretty decent chance of picking up PB, (which he won multiple times last season).

    There's obviously some risks.

    • He's no spring chicken

    • Lampard rested him for the recent UCL away fixture because the fatigue of international travel wasn't worth the risk, given that Chelsea play 3 times this week.

    • For all we know this could be his final season. Given his performances so far, I can't see how he goes from captaining Chelsea to retirement without a stint in Italy.

    • Chillwell has been fantastic for Chelsea and Zouma popped a goal in earlier too so it's not like he has no competition in his own team.

    The way I see it, he's one decent day away from paying for himself and that makes him worth a punt for me.

    I have 500 of him already and if you want out, for 22p, I'll take 300 of him off your hands.



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?:

    A couple of months ago this guy was in the Champions League Final and today he captained Chelsea.

    Since joining Chelsea he has posted some solid base scores (including one from a 0-0 draw where a goal from his team mates would have put him above the red line on the graph below) and picked up his fair share of MB along the way.

    Screen Shot 2020-11-01 at 00.47.06.png

    More than that, Chelsea are 4 clean sheets on the bounce with him at the back and now that Mendy has replaced the shambolic Kepa, and their attackers are fit, it feels like Silva has a pretty decent chance of picking up PB, (which he won multiple times last season).

    There's obviously some risks.

    • He's no spring chicken

    • Lampard rested him for the recent UCL away fixture because the fatigue of international travel wasn't worth the risk, given that Chelsea play 3 times this week.

    • For all we know this could be his final season. Given his performances so far, I can't see how he goes from captaining Chelsea to retirement without a stint in Italy.

    • Chillwell has been fantastic for Chelsea and Zouma popped a goal in earlier too so it's not like he has no competition in his own team.

    The way I see it, he's one decent day away from paying for himself and that makes him worth a punt for me.

    I have 500 of him already and if you want out, for 22p, I'll take 300 of him off your hands.

    Ahhh something like this would be a very rewarding trade but part of me feels theres a little too much risk. Whilst i love trading lower end as the yields are way more rewarding i still have to consider risk even at 27p. What makes you think he has a stint in Italy? You're correct about 1 win away or even 2 silvers which tbf could actually be more realistic but the age does concern me i have to be honest. How does his base compare to here against last season at PSG?
    He has clearly kept himself in top condition though and the switch to PL hasn't fazed him, gotta think Chelsea gonna offer him another season personally plus he has/is learning English so hes dedicated



  • @Shippers said in Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?:

    Ahhh something like this would be a very rewarding trade but part of me feels theres a little too much risk.

    Yeah, it's definitely a high risk punt and anyone thinking of getting in should do so with caution. That said, I think one of the great risks is injury/retirement/MLS but at his price, he could win enough MB off of that alone to offset some of the risk.

    What makes you think he has a stint in Italy?

    Italy seems like the European retirement home at the minute. I just don't see how a player goes from Champions League Final, to Chelsea captain with solid performances, to retired. His star power and quality is shining through at Chelsea against Man Utd, Sevilla, etc, hard to imagine that a club like AC Milan wouldn't want him just because of his age, given that Zlatan has done the business for them.

    I actually think you're spot on about a second year in the Prem though and Lampard is clearly impressed by the guy. Four clean sheets on the bounce speaks for itself.

    How does his base compare to here against last season at PSG?

    Last year before the COVID break, he had 9 PB scores above the red line. He already has 3, so I'd say he hasn't skipped a beat.

    Screen Shot 2020-11-01 at 02.57.00.png



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?:

    @Shippers said in Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?:

    Ahhh something like this would be a very rewarding trade but part of me feels theres a little too much risk.

    Yeah, it's definitely a high risk punt and anyone thinking of getting in should do so with caution. That said, I think one of the great risks is injury/retirement/MLS but at his price, he could win enough MB off of that alone to offset some of the risk.

    What makes you think he has a stint in Italy?

    Italy seems like the European retirement home at the minute. I just don't see how a player goes from Champions League Final, to Chelsea captain with solid performances, to retired. His star power and quality is shining through at Chelsea against Man Utd, Sevilla, etc, hard to imagine that a club like AC Milan wouldn't want him just because of his age, given that Zlatan has done the business for them.

    I actually think you're spot on about a second year in the Prem though and Lampard is clearly impressed by the guy. Four clean sheets on the bounce speaks for itself.

    How does his base compare to here against last season at PSG?

    Last year before the COVID break, he had 9 PB scores above the red line. He already has 3, so I'd say he hasn't skipped a beat.

    Screen Shot 2020-11-01 at 02.57.00.png

    I do like a high risk as feels more rewarding and you do make some solid points so he's certainly made it on my watch list, my preference would to be grabbing him at closer to 20p so I'll see if his IS value gets closer to that mark. I'll look forward to not being able to get him before Tuesday and he sweeps up on a silver day πŸ˜†.



  • @Shippers said in Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?:

    @Dan-The-Man said in Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?:

    @Shippers said in Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?:

    Ahhh something like this would be a very rewarding trade but part of me feels theres a little too much risk.

    Yeah, it's definitely a high risk punt and anyone thinking of getting in should do so with caution. That said, I think one of the great risks is injury/retirement/MLS but at his price, he could win enough MB off of that alone to offset some of the risk.

    What makes you think he has a stint in Italy?

    Italy seems like the European retirement home at the minute. I just don't see how a player goes from Champions League Final, to Chelsea captain with solid performances, to retired. His star power and quality is shining through at Chelsea against Man Utd, Sevilla, etc, hard to imagine that a club like AC Milan wouldn't want him just because of his age, given that Zlatan has done the business for them.

    I actually think you're spot on about a second year in the Prem though and Lampard is clearly impressed by the guy. Four clean sheets on the bounce speaks for itself.

    How does his base compare to here against last season at PSG?

    Last year before the COVID break, he had 9 PB scores above the red line. He already has 3, so I'd say he hasn't skipped a beat.

    Screen Shot 2020-11-01 at 02.57.00.png

    I do like a high risk as feels more rewarding and you do make some solid points so he's certainly made it on my watch list, my preference would to be grabbing him at closer to 20p so I'll see if his IS value gets closer to that mark. I'll look forward to not being able to get him before Tuesday and he sweeps up on a silver day πŸ˜†.

    There's a lot of speculation about a crash at the minute, either a pending crash or one that some say we're currently experiencing the slow end of... I guess if we were to consider which players a crash would least damage, Thiago Silva might be on that list (providing you get a decent bid accepted).

    There can't be crazy amounts of shares in him for people to burn, one decent day or news cycle and he pays for himself. He could find himself with no-IS and a trip to the MLS so it's by no without risk, as he may never win another div again....



  • @Dan-The-Man said in Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?:

    @Shippers said in Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?:

    @Dan-The-Man said in Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?:

    @Shippers said in Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?:

    Ahhh something like this would be a very rewarding trade but part of me feels theres a little too much risk.

    Yeah, it's definitely a high risk punt and anyone thinking of getting in should do so with caution. That said, I think one of the great risks is injury/retirement/MLS but at his price, he could win enough MB off of that alone to offset some of the risk.

    What makes you think he has a stint in Italy?

    Italy seems like the European retirement home at the minute. I just don't see how a player goes from Champions League Final, to Chelsea captain with solid performances, to retired. His star power and quality is shining through at Chelsea against Man Utd, Sevilla, etc, hard to imagine that a club like AC Milan wouldn't want him just because of his age, given that Zlatan has done the business for them.

    I actually think you're spot on about a second year in the Prem though and Lampard is clearly impressed by the guy. Four clean sheets on the bounce speaks for itself.

    How does his base compare to here against last season at PSG?

    Last year before the COVID break, he had 9 PB scores above the red line. He already has 3, so I'd say he hasn't skipped a beat.

    Screen Shot 2020-11-01 at 02.57.00.png

    I do like a high risk as feels more rewarding and you do make some solid points so he's certainly made it on my watch list, my preference would to be grabbing him at closer to 20p so I'll see if his IS value gets closer to that mark. I'll look forward to not being able to get him before Tuesday and he sweeps up on a silver day πŸ˜†.

    There's a lot of speculation about a crash at the minute, either a pending crash or one that some say we're currently experiencing the slow end of... I guess if we were to consider which players a crash would least damage, Thiago Silva might be on that list (providing you get a decent bid accepted).

    There can't be crazy amounts of shares in him for people to burn, one decent day or news cycle and he pays for himself. He could find himself with no-IS and a trip to the MLS so it's by no without risk, as he may never win another div again....

    I dont mind the risk as such as long as its the right price. I wouldn't pay the 47p but happy to get around 20p mark. In terms of a crash, not sure, its not great as we speak but have seen before a tiny update changes sentiment which we get early next week although most probably don't understand half the updates its just "great" to get one. It looks like as well going forward a circut breaker will interneve if a drop occurs similair to the other Sunday and not sure prices can get that much worse at bottom end in most cases πŸ˜…, if there is a crash i expect it will be top and at least we know money has to come in for it to leave other than its on paper and can easily swing the other way. Personally if they can get everything in during international break we have some teams playing a serious amount of games afterwards which would be a good time to implement in my eyes.



  • It’s astonishing how well he’s playing at this point in his career and he’s stated previously he plans on playing for Brazil at the next World Cup.

    All this having retired from football early in his career after a 6 month hospitalization with TB πŸ™ŒπŸΌ



  • The biggest pump since I joined here in late May.

    Disappointing...............



  • @trig said in Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?:

    The biggest pump since I joined here in late May.

    Disappointing...............

    I would say it was a fairly reasoned post backed up with a robust argument which also points out the potential pitfalls of the trade. I also suspect that you could quite quickly find dozens of much more blatant pumps on here since may with a quick cursory search (Use Pogba in your search as a starting point).



  • @qwertqwert I have had this chat about Thiago or David Silva before............ I own David and tbh neither have worked out particularly well.

    It is a massive pump to lure in buyers to then get rid....

    By the way its not a go at Dan its a chat.



  • @trig said in Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?:

    @qwertqwert I have had this chat about Thiago or David Silva before............ I own David and tbh neither have worked out particularly well.

    It is a massive pump to lure in buyers to then get rid....

    By the way its not a go at Dan its a chat.

    I didnt even make a note of the poster, I just thought it strange that you identified this particular post as a Pump when it seems to be backed up with a fairly well thought out logical & balanced reasoning process behind it, when compared to some of the more blatant pumps that will have been posted on here since May.



  • @trig said in Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?:

    @qwertqwert I have had this chat about Thiago or David Silva before............ I own David and tbh neither have worked out particularly well.

    It is a massive pump to lure in buyers to then get rid....

    By the way its not a go at Dan its a chat.

    That's just not how I roll and anyone who's been on here long enough, knows that.

    Screen Shot 2020-11-01 at 13.35.39.png

    Screen Shot 2020-11-01 at 13.35.10.png

    I'm one of those guys who puts his money where his mouth is. You'll realise this if Silva wins the PB and this post resurfaces.



  • This is a good thread.

    Pumps are fine if backed up by sound arguments and counter points. Not for me. But sure if he takes home a star player your laughing.

    Re crash, I think younger players are safer as (as along as they are good enough) you could in theory just log out for a year and sell when outlook is more rosey. Whereas that may not be possible for someone like Thiago.



  • @Dan-The-Man

    @trig

    Managed to land a bunch at 21p.

    Screen Shot 2020-11-04 at 00.50.23.png



  • I have upvoted at 21p Dan and I apologise I had a fair bit to drink the other night.

    I own 100 and have done for ages.

    One good night will return a full a buy price.



  • @trig

    No apologies needed mate, fingers crossed.



  • Another clean sheet for Thiago Silva and despite Werner scoring twice, and Silva getting subbed off at the 68th, Sky gave him Man of he Match

    Screen Shot 2020-11-05 at 05.19.16.png

    Obviously being subbed off hurt his final PB score which was 145, but that's Frank knowing Chelsea are playing again in a couple of days against Sheffield United (2nd to bottom on -7 GD). Lamp's had already subbed Kante, Tammy and Chillwell off before Silva, then Ziyech, He was on course for another red line score.



  • @Shippers

    Did you manage to get in?

    Screen Shot 2020-12-21 at 22.38.00.png



  • congrats dan, good work

    quite excited today when I found the Mbappe shares I bought for the cash drop, I had sold for a profit. Only 20 shares with about 20p profit after commission. But a profit nontheless. Plus it recycled 20 of my other ones.



  • @SDOAFIT said in Thiago Silva - High Risk, Potentially High Reward?:

    congrats dan, good work

    quite excited today when I found the Mbappe shares I bought for the cash drop, I had sold for a profit. Only 20 shares with about 20p profit after commission. But a profit nontheless. Plus it recycled 20 of my other ones.

    Profit is WAY better than losses!


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