Time to Invest?

  • We can all see the players and ports values dropping like a stone, When all the panic sellers leave it should be left with loyal sensible traders plus new people.

    Is now a time to jump on some of the PB faves as their prices low, or do we expect more drops before the rise? I am pretty new just wondered everyones feedback?

  • I think a lot of people will wait until the end of the international break - clearer picture of the market and able to buy into players during a fruitful IPD window. I'd imagine lots of people are hoping and praying that these low prices are still available in a few weeks, despite what the market is saying...

  • Difficult to say. A lot of players looked ridiculously cheap about a month ago but they are now down at least another 30p from then.

    Could look even more grim in a couple of weeks or FI could announce something (wishful thinking) in that time that brings a bit of good sentiment back into the market and prices start creeping back up again.

    I don't think you've got more of an edge if you've been on the platform for 4 years compared to 4 days right now. No-one knows what's going to happen. All pure guesswork.

  • In my view, no. What we are seeing is what happens when there is no apparent logic to the market. Prices fall, optimistic and "longer term view" people then buy more at lower prices, to reduce their AVG price per share, but share prices continue to fall so this cycle repeats over and over. The bonus on buying seems ill judged to me as what good is a 2% bonus when the share will fall by more than that in a week and you won't be able to get out at a profit even taking into account dividends. What we are basically dpoing is lending the Index money that we wprobably won't get completely back.

    This ended up a lot more negative than I intended it, but am I wrong? The usual answer of it's a 3 year "bet" doesn't stand up, because we can't even predict next week let alone next year.

  • I would say yes. I have been holding off putting any more money in over the last few weeks, and indeed actually withdrew £500, but with a view to reinvesting if the market dips again.

    Logic tells me that people can't keep turning their noses up at these div returns forever. I got £750 in divs over the last month alone. If that continues I can recoup my entire investment well ahead of the three year 'expiry' of my shares. That's an outstanding rate of return.

    Sadly I am close to the limit I've set myself in terms of a net deposit so this next investment will probably be my last. I'll need to be better at selling to generate new funds - but it's hard to sell when you still see the price as undervalued.

    Anyway, yes, get stuck in I reckon.

  • i like the idea of Tom moyneux on the football index club podcast. he suggested buying in small and regular quantities in players you rate for pb. i have done this today.

    tielemans 0.91p
    gosens 1.06
    ginter 0.33 p

    im itching to spend more but am gonna leave it there for now.i think the bottom line for me is will these players return their price in 3 years? i have faith that with present dividend yields and future rises the answer for the above will be yes. what i have decided is that from now on with the exception of kimmitch i probably wont ever spend more than £5 per share based on current prices

  • I would say yes, but stick to PB players, massively underpriced bottom enders and goalkeepers, who were stupid value even before the current decline.

  • I'm only investing any divs or cash into keepers at present as they don't tend to rise or fall too much and are a fairly safe place to bid and place money. As for outfield players I won't be investing or topping up and will just be keeping a cash balance for when I feel prices have settled as I think we're still going to see steady drops for now with the international break and the non-update, update.

    However, I will add that I'm still positive overall but at present you just need to pick and choose the correct times to buy and the correct times to keep your powder dry.

  • Like people are saying it's all complete guess work atm. All the experienced traders and forum guys seem to be saying it will come around and just look at your div return percentage. I'm trying to buy players under 75p bracket at around their lowest bids but are still good players. A lot of gks and defenders in Europe comps. Their returns are high for just scoring or keeping a clean sheet from ipd. I believe these sort of players im picking up can't go much lower with the ipds on offer. Although there may well be no bids on these players until they actually score or keep a cs etc. I'm staying away from the top end of the market but I also believe it would be a good time to buy on them as I don't think they can come much lower down. But they are less affordable to top up hence my decision to mainly stick with sub 75p players. Maybe at the end of this weekend sell off will be the best time to buy? Aslong as youre happy with the price youre getting in at amd you can see your player returning good divs in a certain time then dont be affraid to buy especially if youre keeping him for a long term bet! Good luck!

  • I’ve been holding off for a few weeks not but I have to say some of these prices are too good to miss..

    £500 deposited this morning and picking up great deals on lewandowski, Ramos and a couple of others who I’ll keep to myself

    Another boob by FI

    Simply loveleh

  • @Dragon4Life What makes you call "them" panic sellers? Just because someone takes the view that they don't like the way their port is sitting and so gets out doesn't mean they are panicking.
    As for the loyal "sensible" traders, only time will tell if they (myself included), have actually been sensible.
    To be brutally honest, I wish I had panicked a few weeks ago and sold the lot.

  • I'm carrying on investing a bit of money here and there and re-investing all dividends. I don't want to look back in 6-12mths and think I missed a great opportunity when players flat-lined.

    It's a risk, but so far i've enjoyed the 2 year journey and I have faith FI will bounce back and go from strength to strength.

  • @Wolvesfan1980 it’s certainly rocky, and FI do seam to make a few howlers along the way. But I’m pretty confident they will get where they need to be in good time ( hopefully by the Euro’s )

    I honestly believe we will look back at these prices and just laugh at how low we picked them up ... and if drop further still in the months to come, I will snap up what I can sensibly afford.

    Look at the numbers of people still here whilst things are shit .... imagine when things are all sorted and the product is shining .... and no Covid.

    The Yields alone should have people flocking to FI

  • I think it’s a great time to invest, especially in potential PB players.

  • There are two questions to ask yourself at this very point in time looking at the market;

    1) If you purchased the player today, would you be happy with the price you're paying when the market resumes normality? Do you see value?

    The answer for most of the players with good PB base or cheap div earners is yes.

    As an example, I bought Plea during Brown Sunday for £0.38p, this week he scored 3 and had 1 assist, which I didn't receive a penny for, because it was outside the 30 IPD. However, I did get the Player Bonus for Top Forward, and Star Player, so he has almost paid for himself. I researched and justified the purchase in September, because I could see value and growth.

    If you think you're getting a good deal now, I'm sure it will be cheaper tomorrow, but maybe you will miss out?! So find your price, and justify your purchase by researching their FI history.

    2) If you're waiting for the prices to drop further, at what price point would you buy in?

    Set yourself a price, add the player to your watchlist today, if he is already on, remove him and add him again to get to 0%. Watch for 48 hours and if the price is dropping, then you might be able to wait it out to buy in at your ideal price.

    But be realistic. I think we could see prices drop until the 18th of November. People will start buying on the 19th, in anticipation of football restarting, and utilising the 30 day IPD.

    For me this week is not the week to invest. Watch as top playerse who score or assist during Champions League or Europa game will have their price drop as people start to IS on a spike when the spreads close up.

  • Disconcertingly, I think prices will fall further for some. It's not even the IB yet and nowhere near the optimal share renewal date. Imagine what happens to Messi if he fails to win pb tonight?

    Unfortunately, the implementation of the insane buy commission will also have an effect. It's simply lessening the attractiveness of some options and I wonder if the recovery - and some recovery is ofc inevitable - won't be as complete across the market as in the past.

  • Topped up on the GOAT at £5.18. Should be favourite for PB + Star tonight

  • @Richio i agree on this. just matched romagnoli at i think 35 p. its not as if the guys a nobody. pb over 100 and in a succesful milan team. a regular starter

  • @Pez I was tempted to and he is my joint biggest hold (with Kimmich) currently but could see him dropping into the 4s if he fails to, which there is a decent chance of. Only takes one huge performance elsewhere, which is very possible in the UCL. And Ronaldo is back...

  • @UncleBeard I think we will get the upturn before buy commission comes in.

    2% will be a lot more expensive than one or two IPD eligible fixtures for most good assets.

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