User guide; Bidding on players for the Newuser



  • I have seen a few Newusers post on here about buying a player, so I am hoping this will be a post we can all bump, or send the newbiews to when the question is asked.

    Buying a player:

    There are two ways of buying a player, first click the Buy button, and here you will see the two options:

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    You now have the option to Buy now, or Place Bid:

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    My advice would be this, I would avoid using the Buy Now button as a new user. It would immediately put you into a negative balance, because when you intent on selling the player, the player would have to have seriously increased in price in order to gain a profit.

    As the platform of Football Index moves towards achieving more of a Investment based philosophy, you should become accustomed to placing bids using the Place Bid button.

    Explaining Place Bid and pricing:

    Placing a bid will allow you to enter an amount you feel is an acceptable value for a player.

    The example I am going to use is that of Bernardo Silva:

    Here you can see Bernardo Silva has a SELL price of £0.90p and and BUY price of £1.37. The value between these two numbers is referred to as the spread. This is a term often used on the forum, so take note. The spread can tighten; meaning the SELL value may get closer to the BUY value, or the BUY value may decrease to the SELL value.

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    It effectively means Bids can be placed on this player anywhere between £0.90p-£1.37:

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    Because the price of a player is constantly moving, based upon the sentiment of the market, or external factors of the player, such as; injury, good/bad performance, transfer links etc, it is difficult to say if £0.90p is actually the lowest value of the player. Therefore bidding £0.90p might mean that you have to wait for an prolonged period of time before it is accepted by another trader.

    My advice to determine a players true cost is to buy a single share in the player, it will all make sense in a moment.

    Firstly, look at the spread of the player, to begin with I would bid for a single share at the mid price. There's £0.47p between the SELL £0.90p and BUY £1.37, so I would bid around the £1.15 mark.

    Because you can bid multiple times, I would also, if I wanted the player quite quickly, place two more bids, one a few pence more and one a few pence lower. I now have three bids on this player; 1 x £1.15, 1 x £1.05 and 1 x £1.25, and you can see these in the open bids and offers section.

    Alternatively, if the player's spread is only a matter of a few pence, might not want to wait to Place Bids, but if the spread is tight, it means the following;

    Firstly this means the player is in high demand at this moment in time. It means he has probably done something significant (just had a great match, halfway through a match, transfer rumor, media attention) and is currently priced close to his actual value. He might have a SELL price of £1.36 and a BUY price of £1.41.

    In this instance, you will be buying this player at close to his highest point, so do your research, do you see further growth?

    Buying at close to peak cost means there's little room for error, and if he drops in price significantly, can you live with seeing the negative figure in your portfolio.

    Bid accepted!!

    I am going to use Pavard as an example for this next bit.

    Now you have had a bid accepted, you have a greater chance of getting a player at a low price and making instant profit. You should now see that player in your portfolio list. Now what you should do is click the SELL button, it sounds odd, but again, it will all make sense soon;

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    Now you can see the actual low point of the player, I am now using as an example.

    Although on the portfolio page it stated his SELL price was £1.34 you can see, it is actually £1.36. It's not much difference, but this means, if you had put an offer in at rock bottom £1.34 you would have needed to have waited for his price to drop by £0.02p before your bid was accepted, and there's no telling how long that could be.

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    What you can do now, is see his SELL price is £1.36 therefore other share holders can Instant Sell this player for £1.36.

    What you now want to do is bid anywhere above this price. So his price is £1.36 I would suggest, as you can place as many bids as you wish, to put multiple bids in, say 10 at £1.36 10 at £1.37 and 10 at £1.38, just in case the price moves.

    The only thing you need to do now is wait. But don't sit there constantly watching the price, just check his price every so often using the SELL button.

    Have a look, if his price has increased, it means you will need to increase your bids, but try to always leave a few low ball offers on, he can fall as quickly as he has risen.

    And that's it, that's bidding in a nutshell.

    Question time:

    The main question asked by new users on the forum, regarding buying, is; "If a player has a BUY price of £1.10, how are there shares available at £0.92p, if you can only SELL a player £0.01p less that his buy price?"

    Answer: Simply because the player has not always been valued at his current price of £1.10. At some point he would have been £0.90p, and at that point people would have listed to sell at £0.89p. Just as he would have had to go up to get to £1.10, this means there are likely to be shares on the market anywhere within that range.

    This could also be people bidding very low, and the bids being rounded up to create the Instant Sell price.

    I hope this helps Newusers, I am not trying to teach anyone to suck eggs, but I made stupid mistakes to begin with because I didn't know things like this.

    Final note: We have a strong community full of experienced traders, if you have anything you think will be worth adding, just comment below and I can add it in.

    Thanks.



  • @UncleBeard nice post and should be helpful for people. Surely tho where you say.... how can his buy price be 1.10 and sell price be 0.90 when you can only sell 1p below....that's just people bidding low , and that a round up of the highest bids. Therefore creating IS



  • Great post and i wish this was posted in this simple user friendly manner when i joined 2 months ago! Thanks :)



  • @AndydfopT Thanks Andy! Top man. I have amended the question and added your answer. If it still isn't worded well, PM me and I will paste it in!



  • so you are basically telling people 'not' to buy now... instead to bid 'below market value' which lowers the value of the market and brings down the cost in players overrall.. so everyones portfolio falls?

    Very helpful to newbies but not really an incentive for anyone looking to 'make' money through capital growth!!!



  • Great post for new users and very helpful. I was thinking the other day that someone should put together a bible for new users explaining some basics but was too lazy to do it myself.



  • @dannypea

    There isn't going to be market wide CA for a while as many players are still overvalued and it's taking a long time for them to reach their true value due to the stablisers but in place by FI. Once the market finds its level then CA will exist again but on a player by player basis, when a player performs at a level above his market value then that value will go up.

    Encouraging new users to buy at the correct value isn't what's causing the currently market readjustment.



  • @dannypea if new people are buying at the market price and see what looks like they are instantly down say....15 p down on a player ( spread depending ) then its disheartening. Everyone should be bidding. The people who are ruining the platform are the ones who sell. If they held firm ,bids wouldn't be accepted therefore they would need to raise bids driving the market up. Too many people shit themselves on here



  • so your advice Geoff? if there is no CA until 'true value' is found... then do not invest until we have true value? surely? Otherwise what are we investing in? below market or above market?

    My annoyment is that i've been trading nearly four years... if true value still isn't a thing by now... it can only be because all these gimmicks FI have done to alter the platform have caused so much disruption that it has totally lost its way!!

    What we need to find true vale is stability... You won't find that when players have spreads of £3/4 at a time!



  • @dannypea

    So a player's value is set by their future dividends returns. Their value will be a fraction of the total amount they are going to earn over the rest of their career. What that fraction is will depend on the individual player and also the individual purchaser's appetite for risk. So for example if you have a player who you think will earn £5 over the rest of their career you know that their value has to be less than £5 (because why would anyone buy any investment for more than that investment can earn over its lifetime).

    The fraction you set will depend on the risk involved, the more risky the smaller the fraction. So if that £5 is almost guaranteed you might be willing to pay £4 for it. If it's highly unlikely you might only be willing to pay £2 for it. That's for your own individual judgement.

    The risk associated with all players went up with the removal of IS, so at that point the value of all players went down as you couldn't guarantee you could get out if things went wrong. So yes the current price drops are due to FI changing the rules, but that happened months ago. I, along with several other people, highlighted this at the time so it's not like this is unexpected and there have been dips and rises which allowed people to restructure their portfolios. I withdrew around £5K at the time and another £8K over the following 3 months, with a view to putting some of it back in once values had gone down. I also changed a lot of my holdings to players I felt were safer holds.
    I appreciate that's no help to you now but I've mentioned it to explain the context of what it happening at the moment.

    So as you've asked what my advice would be now it's look at each of the players on your portfolio and work out what you think their true value is based on their future earnings potential. If the current IS value us higher than that true value then ditch them now, their value will likely keep falling. If their true value is higher than their current IS value then you should probably continue to hold.

    Then once you've sold anyone that needs selling you do the same with those players you want to buy. If you can currently buy them for less than their true value then snap them up, if they currently cost more than that then don't bother.

    For example I value Messi at £4.90. So the minute he went below that I started buying and picked up 100 yesterday. Now my assessment of him at £4.90 might be wrong but that's the risk I'm wiling to take.

    Hope that's helpful.



  • @GeoffS nice advise



  • Hi, good discussion in here, seems healthy.

    @dannypea Your initial point is valid, you're right, by not encouraging people to use the Buy Now button, we're not increasing the liquidity of the market.

    But what we are doing is possible more important.

    We're doing two positive things; we're giving new uses the advise and knowledge we would give our friends and family, thus new users will see the green profit colour within their profile and will be encouraged to stay.

    Secondly, and this one is important to me, we're also having new users buy shares from people who are desperate to get out. Now whether it is because of fear, financial difficulty, or simply wanting to leave because they hate the product, or do not like the change, I do not see a problem in doing this. As a humanist, it doesn't bother me in the slightest, it is cleansing the platform of people who want out.

    At the moment every other post on this forum is negative, screaming not to invest, well I was hoping this guide would help some sort of stability in a weird way.

    Thanks @GeoffS and @AndydfopT for responding to @dannypea, not because I wanted him shot down, his points were valid, just because you both articulate so well, it's easily understandable.



  • Whilst I completely get @dannypea's point and it's valid like you say @UncleBeard I didn't see this as advising new users to not market buy but more letting them know the options available to them. When I first joined I market bought everybody and paid the price on a lot of my original purchases (no pun intended). So this info would've been really helpful for me.

    People will only market buy when the sentiment improves and traders regain confidence in FI, so I don't think many if any will be market buying now. First step is for people to gain confidence and stop ISing at super low prices so we can at least get to a middle ground of reasonable and accurate IS prices, once at this point people will feel more comfortable market buying as the spreads should tighten a bit.

    Disclaimer: In light of recent reviews of my conduct, it has to be said that I might be wrong and I only have three months of experience and my port value is only 2,500 - thanks.



  • @GeoffS said in User guide; Bidding on players for the Newuser:

    will be a fraction of the total amount they are going to earn over the rest of their career. What that fraction is will depend on the individual player and also the individual purchaser's appetite for risk. So for example if you have a player who you think will earn £5 over the rest of their career you know that their value has to be less than £5 (because why would anyone buy any investment for more than that investment can earn over its lifetime).
    The fraction you set will depend on the risk involved, the more risky the smaller the fraction. So if that £5 is almost guaranteed you might be willing to pay £4 for it. If it's highly unlikely you might only be willing to pay £2 for it. That's for your own individual judgement.
    The risk associated with all players went up with the removal of IS, so at that point the value of all players went down as you couldn't guarantee you could get out if things went wrong. So yes the current price drops are due to FI changing the rules, but that happened months ago. I, along with several other people, highlighted this at the time so it's not like this is unexpected and there have been dips and rises which allowed people to restructure their portfolios. I withdrew around £5K at the time and another £8K over the following 3 months, with a view to putting some of it back in once values had gone down. I also changed a lot of my holdings to players I felt were safer holds.
    I appreciate that's no help to you now but I've mentioned it to explain the context of what it happening at the moment.
    So as you've asked what my advice would be now it's look at each of the players on your portfolio and work out what you think their true value is based on their future earnings potential. If the current IS value us higher than that true value then ditch them now, their value will likely keep falling. If their true value is higher than their current IS value then you should probably continue to hold.
    Then once you've sold anyone that needs selling you do the same with those players you want to buy. If you can currently buy them for less than their true value then snap them up, if they currently cost more than that then don't bother.
    For example I value Messi at £4.90. So the minute he went below that I started buying and picked up 100 yesterday. Now my assess

    so you're basing your strategy on 'complete' dividend potential..., and not necessarily the hysteria of growth based on talent and potential and market movement? Tbf it's a nice simple way of looking at it! So the future of FI is simply value in dividends, not necessarily anything else?



  • @dannypea

    Well they'll still be CA, but I think it will be caused by four main things:

    1. Market Sentiment: As market sentiment improves and liquidity improves the risk decreases as you're more likely to be able to get out of players. This means the multiplier changes increasing player value.
    2. Increases in dividends. If dividends increase then player values will increase.
    3. Player performance. The consensus on a player is that he will earn £5 over his career and his value is set accordingly, suddenly he moves to another club and starts banging in goals, people revise their opinion and decide he's going to earn £10. His value doubles.
    4. Player risk reduces. This is related to 3) but is slightly different. A young player might be anticipated to have a dividend return of £10 over his career, but it's a bit up in the air as he's not earned anything yet. So you might apply a multiplier of 0.2 giving him a value of £2. However he starts to live up to his potential and that £10 estimate becomes less risky, so you adjust your multiplier to 0.4, giving him a value of £4.

    So there will still be CA, though probably not at the same level we've seen previously, and it can only start to happen once players reach their current true values as dictated by current performance and risk.

    I'm not saying my way of valuing is the correct way but it's how I'm approaching it. For work I value commercial property investments and portfolios and this is done almost entirely based on income streams and risk, you very rarely take potential CA into account (unless there are specific reasons you know a particular property is going to go up). Any CA is basically a bonus.



  • @GeoffS hahahaha i market/sell 'domestic' property investment and 'always' take CA into account... two ways of looking at it i suppose...

    I would say CA is a given for longer term holders in the kind of property i sell 'but' that's not necessarily the case with commercial property or FI... although my sole reasons for investing at the earliest stage on this platform was for CA through the platforms growth and not for dividends at all!

    Hence why i'm thinking it might no longer be for me???

    I like and get your strategy, I just wonder if it's now 'exciting' enough to take that route myself and gamble on whether the game is 'going to attract enough like-minded users to continue to make it profitable in that way, or should i instead simply leave the funds on account until I can get out at whatever cost that may be?

    I honestly feel if it were buy/sell based on just simply dividends, there would be a lot more money in and out of the game on a daily basis, I just wonder if we've got to that stage yet? Or if and when we do are FI going to shift the goalposts again by introducing 'something else' in addition to an already over complicated platform?

    My biggest fear is that when i explain FI to someone, they haven't a clue how it works, when they try it, after a few days of seeing no movement they still haven't a clue how it works!!! I'm surprised that's still the case over 3 years into its reign.



  • I never understand value a player on what he can return over 3 years. To me that should only be the case for players over 30. Everyone else you have an exit.



  • @AndydfopT said in User guide; Bidding on players for the Newuser:

    I never understand value a player on what he can return over 3 years. To me that should only be the case for players over 30. Everyone else you have an exit.

    For the bargain basement players who are never going to win PB or Media, you could argue that it is a 30 day investment.

    Max Value = Future Sell Price + 30 day IPD - commission.



  • @AndydfopT

    I'm not valuing based on what they can earn over three years but what they could earn over their career (admittedly very difficult to estimate with any accuracy). As that will also determine you exit price. Agree valuing based on three years earnings makes no sense.



  • @Honeylight

    Yes with that sort of player, unless something crazy is going to happen in the 30 days you hold them you can probably assume that you buy and sell at about the same price. So all you need to really work out is are my expected IPD's going to be more or less than my 2% commission (4% soon which will make it more difficult).


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