Why the drop?



  • Could someone explain why there has been all this drip in prices..its not like the prem is in lockdown?



  • it's part of a cycle. Prices go up, people take profits, prices go down, fearful people sell, greedy people buy.. prices go up... people take profits...



  • This post is deleted!


  • Unfortunately, I think all of those that would have tried to put a positive spin on it have left this forum... But without wanting to sound overly negative, I can offer a brief summary of my opinion:

    Effect of removal of is to FI now being realised by the masses
    Risk vastly increased being realised by the masses
    Too thin a market for the current order books being realised by the masses
    Liquidity issues
    Faith and trust issues
    Mistake after mistake by FI
    International break coming
    Covid impacting lives and money
    Competition doing offers and being more organised (easier for them to do so as smaller)
    Clunky tech
    Sentiment around product toxic
    Fear of unleashed order books coming
    Christmas coming
    New games consoles darn expensive
    5 sub rule?



  • Promotions increase a players value, but when the promotion ends the players are over priced and there is an adjustment.

    Players are only eligible for IPD in the first 30 days . There is an international break coming up, so investors might want to wait 10 days or so before buying.

    Market sentiment. When prices fall, people get nervous and sell causing prices to fall further.



  • But the thing is you cant even sell the players anymore... so what can you do?



  • Guys remember the days... midday on a Saturday people would be spending away cuz of the weekend action ahead now look at it... poor traders can’t even spend a penny cuz there buys will fall in price that’s after them scoring a hat trick etc tomorrow’s gunna be more depressing international sell off



  • @D-man said in Why the drop?:

    Could someone explain why there has been all this drip in prices..its not like the prem is in lockdown?

    rephrase'd your question for you

    'hi guys, I've been on FI for 30 months and have never seen a drop in prices before. Honestly I haven't. And I'm totally baffled as to why it's happening now. Having looked through the forum I can't see a single post by anybody else mentioning this, so thought I would ask'



  • @Dav said in Why the drop?:

    Guys remember the days... midday on a Saturday people would be spending away cuz of the weekend action ahead now look at it... poor traders can’t even spend a penny cuz there buys will fall in price that’s after them scoring a hat trick etc tomorrow’s gunna be more depressing international sell off

    excellent.

    I will be buying that player for the 6p in Divs, and quite likely the PB after that hat-trick, along with another 4 or 5 games in the 30 days. And if he drops 10p ? well, if he IS a proven scorer he will return dividends over 3 years and rise too. There are bargains to be had. Think about what you said.



  • Prices go up prices go down. When they go up people don't start a thread saying why are the prices going up, why am I making so much money, FI is great etc etc.



  • @Harmonica

    Agree with your point in general, however, price increase or decrease doesnt make you a profit or less unless a trader actually sells for the profit/loss. This is a really important point which traders need to appreciate.



  • @Falcon said in Why the drop?:

    Agree with your point in general, however, price increase or decrease doesnt make you a profit or less unless a trader actually sells for the profit/loss. This is a really important point which traders need to appreciate.

    Totally agree. When we hold a player we think of those shares an asset, but in reality they are just open bets.

    I don't take much interest in FI's interpretation of my all time P/L. I'm currently valuing my P/L at Cost Price + Balance + Open Bids - Deposits. Even the mid price is overly optimistic right now.

    I have bought most of my players on low bids, so cost price is only a bit higher than IS price. With recent drops, I would make a small loss on most players at IS, but the difference is small enough for one good performance or match day spike to raise the IS price enough to show a profit.

    Valuing my portfolio this way gives a lower figure, but it is less volatile and I get a more realistic indication of whether my profit is rising or falling.



  • @D-man the game has changed. dont worry about trying to sell players. That wont be possible except at a loss for the short to mid term . ignore the capital appreciation side of things. accept its a 3 year bet and buy into players you are convinced will return their price in dividends. in many cases with these prices you can buy players who should return their price in dividends in 3 years. these players should maintain their prices quite well. Even if they dont and you have to sell for something stupid like 10p in 3 years time ( which wont happen) you will still make a profit



  • All I can offer is.....
    BUY THE DIPS!!!!!



  • @jonathan-rolfe
    I think there are two games. The long term PB and Media game which only works for a small number of players and the short term 30 day IPD game for the rest.

    Capital appreciation is still possible if you bid low - unless the market drops for ever in which case both long term and short term options are equally doomed.

    If the market levels off and starts to rise again, there is potential for capital appreciation across the board.

    There is a lot of talk about widening and narrowing of spreads, but that is only relevant if you are thinking of paying the Buy Price. Once you have a bid accepted, the Buy Price becomes irrelevant. You are only interested in the difference between the amount you paid and what you can sell for.

    The spread between the Accepted Bid Price and Sell Price is generally quite small.


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