Great value at these prices!

  • I have felt for a while that the top end was overpriced with players over £10. Looking at current prices it feels like they are now much more realistic. There is also some real value appearing at the lower end of the market now that prices have dropped a little. Feels like now is a good time to buy!

    Some examples:
    Sancho (£3.06 return in 12 months but £2.90 from MB) - His MB is unlikely to be the same in the next 12 months. £8.50 feels right
    Bruno - (£2.76 return). Feels like great value at £7 (I've been topping up!)
    Kimmich - (£1.06 return) PB King. Good value at £6
    Harry Kane (£1.48 return) - £5 is great value
    Neymar - (£1.88 return) Super solid. £7.50 feels right
    Timo Werner (£1.28 return). Bargain at £3.80

    There are some that still look out of place though:
    Mbappe (16p return) - Still massively overpriced at £8.16
    Erling Braut Haaland - (£0.31 return). Still overpriced at £5
    Greenwood (14p return) - £5 still too much

    Some mega value lower down:
    Kingsley Coman (46p return) - £1.80
    Max Arnold (40p) - £1.15
    Hakan Çalhanoğlu (66p) - £2.22

    I don't know about you but I'm excited right now at the prospect of how much money is to made at these prices, let alone once Cap Appreciation kicks in on the back of Order Books

  • @Neil-S nice post. I'm glad I'm not the only one value players with a smaller percentage yield. I really do think many people are expecting too much return from players. Whether this is because they are used to the FI glory days is anyone's guess. Many will still feel these players are overpriced. I'm definitely not in that camp. Iv got a massive dilemma that I have a fair amount in the index but should I bet more? Its actually doing my head in cus I want to put more in but worried it will be stuck in index

  • Good positive post, there is plenty yalue in alot of players, especially in the lower to mid priced players. I feel alot of 'keepers are still great value, and got plenty of potential to gain CA in them

  • I work out the the value based on:

    • PB expectation over next 3 years (I work this out based on last 12 months and then predict next 3 years depending on what stage of their career they are at)
    • MB expectation over the next 3 years (MD unpredictable in most players but I assume 50% less than the last 12 months for the next 3 years)
    • Estimated player value in 3 years (assuming the index doesn't grow) and take into account that the index doesn't like players over 29!

    Using these principles you can find lots of value players

  • @Lillychar1216 I've been looking at keepers too. I agree that there's still lots of value. There is also significant %age spread so you can pick up some bargains. e.g.
    Alfred Gomis
    Luigi Sepe
    Rui Silva
    Predrag Rajkovic
    Juan Musso

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  • @Neil-S Not only those, but plenty 'keepers that are involved in CL/EL aswell. Although injured i've been picking Gollini up extremely cheaply, especially compared to what price he was pre-injury

  • @Lillychar1216 My model calculates Gollini's value at about 63p so looks like a bargain if you can pick him up at 40p ish...might pick some up myself :)

  • You can get these players at lot cheaper now on the matching engine. I only say that as you quoted a lot for the above at their current buy price when very few are using that function currently.

  • @DJ-110 Totally agree, I think they are good value at buy price. Picking them via matching engine just gives even more value.
    I picked up Bruno at £6.18 a couple of day ago. And Werner at £3.30!

  • @DJ-110 If someone isn't using the ME then that's their issue! There's been plenty of posts about saying people should use that, and also bits in the learning area about using it. Some people are too keen to dive straight in without even learning the basic things. Admitadly i've been guilty over FOMO and overpaying, but I don't get why people don't get an idea of the basics before putting their money in and buying players

  • 88 morelos up for a measly buck 30 gone by the end of the day?!

  • @Lillychar1216 I'd be a little cautious on Gollini. He has recovered from his injury and has been on the bench the last few games, unable to shift Sportiello from the team.

  • @Neil-S ive been thinking of getting more scientific with my valuations. have to admit i'm a bit disappointed with your valuation of greenwood as topped up at 4.85 yesterday. for me it was the combination of age/ man united/ obvious talent and my perception that his bad form recently has supressed his price coupled with the fact he had fallen so much. i guess in my head there was also the comparison with Ansu Fati. it must be hard to judge pb potential with those who promise to win it. how do you work out pb with a player who plays infrequently ( im guessing pb per 90) and estimation of improvement? any tips would be much appreciated

  • @StephenD Yeh I get where you're coming from there, I've got a few Sportiello also, as bought in when Gollini got injured, but am a fair bit down on him. If I recall correctly Gollini wasn't expected back till around this time originally. Have seen a few of their games so far this season and not impressed with Sportiello, so wouldn't be surprised to see Gollini regain his place soon.

  • @jonathan-rolfe I think the problem with Greenwood was that his price rose so high purely based on expectation last year. The old FI worked that way and there was money to made on Cap Ap. Now, the focus is divs and Greenwood has no PB divs yet and about 14p in the last year on Media. This doesn't make him stand out as a safe buy at £5 (still a gamble in my book).
    The model I use does factor current market price, as people still clearly hold him and as such he has value outside of divs. It's showing his value at £4.23 at the moment.
    Personally I wouldn't buy into him unless I could get him at £3 or less (very unlikely!)....unless he starts to pick up some PB's and then I'd remodel. Just my opinion. Good luck with him though, if he picks up a couple of PB's his price could rocket.

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