What scenario next week?

  • If we were to go by what happened last time the limits on bidding were removed, the most likely scenario will be yet another ‘rush to the bottom’ (for lack of better words) with sellers undercutting each other and some ‘wise’ buyer taking some bargain in the process.

    Maybe to a less extent than brown Sunday as many are already out and prices are already lower than they were... (oh and we will have circuit breakers 💆‍♂️)

    However, trying to be the ever optimistic, isn’t there also a potential scenario in which money waiting on the side, either withdrawn in the previous months or coming from some shark / whale looming in the shadow, now that market depth is visible, pounce in heavily buying up all the ‘bargains’ and then sit comfortably from that moment on yields which will probably never be available again? (Of course only applicable to proven PB/MB winners)

    I’d like to believe that the key issue here is that more money ‘wAnt’ out than in. The moment in which that trend is reversed things might finally start stabilizing...

  • I’m definitely expecting some serious volatility initially. However, this time most people are expecting it, whereas last time a lot had no real idea what was coming. I think this means that anyone in a position to invest will be waiting on these drops to do so, which might actually lead to a bounce in some players. I actually feel that in the long term FI taking away the support and incentives, and letting the market find its way is the right move. It is a massive shitter if you’re sat on a portfolio you can’t shift (and I’ve got plenty; not naming any names Rabbi Matondo 🖕) or you need money out now. But I do think a couple of months of lots of football and big divs will get stuff moving in a positive direction. Call me a hopeless optimist 🤷‍♂️

  • Can't wait to be honest. They haven't reduced divs and while my holds will no doubt reduce, their yields on any new buys will massively increase

  • I have 2 up and coming youngsters, 4 outfield IPD players, 4 - 5 mid range PB players, 1 cheap old git, a shit load of GK's and 3 premium holds. What could go wrong?

    Looking forward to seeing how it plays out!!

  • They'll be drops on those players who are overpriced to begin with, then rises as those players find their true price equilibrium & become value again.

  • @Kozo-Kira think il be on both sides of the melee. Got a lot of junk (only now junk due to no IS to FI) to shift, but also big cash balance to gobble up any regular div earners being dumped.

  • There will probably never be a better time to buy for the less nervous....people wanting to get rid of players and loads and loads of matches coming up!

  • @NorfolkCanary weirdly looking forward to it - even if there is a massive drop, it will also rise quickly too (like you say 9 games, lots of div potential) - I didn't mind the volatility of OB when they were first introduced. I mean I did mind Brown Sunday but if FI are stepping in for any unusual activity like that, it should be interesting.

  • I'm looking forward to the end to the stagnation and the excitement of trading again.

    Prices will probably drop initially, but no one is forced to sell. The removal of IS to FI means that we are buying and selling from/to other traders. One traders loss is another traders gain.

    In time, prices will surely adjust to reflect dividend potential. If one player has an exceptional yield his price will rise and vice versa.

    Traders are setting price not FI. Nothing has really changed. If a player was worth £X last week based on dividend potential, that player is also worth £X next week as dividend structure is unchanged.

    The only real difference is sentiment. Traders were artificially inflating the value of their portfolios. It was crazy that your portfolio would instantly show a 10p profit if you paid 90p for a player with a 80p - 100p spread. In reality this was an initial 10p loss.

    This didn't matter when traders were selling to buy, but when they got nervous and started to take money out they realised that portfolio value was inflated. This lead to more traders wanting to de-risk. A vicious circle then developed.

    With the proposed changes things should be better once the market settles down. Portfolio values will drop, but this will be a realistic value at market price rather than an unrealistic Buy Price.

    The adjustment will be painful for some, but hopefully the platform will operate as intended afterwards,

    The 2% buy commission is a pain in the arse though.

  • we might not make it to thursday at this rate

  • @Honeylight Agreed. But also if the prices drop low, the 2% isn't charged on bids matched right away. So let's say Messi drops to 4.20 - people will bid 4.25/4.3 to go above and hope it matches straight away. This should hopefully drive prices back up quicker and if not it'll mean you can keep picking up relative bargains without commission.

    At least that's how I understand it.

  • @nicky540 bit dramatic ;)

  • @howsthebacon people are accepting old bids on messi at £4.34, there really are a lot of people that just want out now and its not good however positive we all try to be

  • @nicky540 I don't think it's positive to suggest we will all make it to Thursday, plenty of people have been waiting for OB to return for a long time, so whilst there might be lots getting out, there'll be just as many hoovering up bargains. I'm not expecting my port value to rise in any way but it'd be nice to see something resembling a finished product that we can all get used to and start moving forward with.

    I think saying we won't see it to Thursday when the current drop is no different to what we experienced before the pre-annoumcent spike, is a bit dramatic. And to clarify I'm not being overly positive here, just think a few people taking silly bids for Messi isn't my biggest concern right now - if anything I'm annoyed I didn't put those bids in lol.

  • This week has gone pretty much as I expected during an international break....a slow steady decline which I expect will be reversed as we near football resuming again at the end of next week. I actually think FI have timed the latest tweaks very well with so much football coming up.

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