How sure are you the market will crash?



  • Seeing a lot of posts saying upon roll out of Thursday's changes the market will dive further - this doesn't bother me at all as I think within 12 months we'll see a huge upturn as money comes back into the system. 3 year bet as well.

    What is it that makes everyone so sure we'll see value depreciation? Wondering whether to free up some funds from other sources to try and scoop up some cheap players.

    Thanks for helping a relative newbie, really appreciate the support I get on the forum.



  • There is certainly an element of ‘past performance’ re. last time they removed the brakes the market crashed.

    Also, if one want to take a more factual approach. All the ‘buy now’ prices we see are determined by players on sale at 1p below etc. These are representative of people who want out (unless one believe the current prices on offer are actually attractive 🤷‍♂️). These people, once given the opportunity I assume will be willing to take further hits in order to sell and therefore will put players on offer at lower prices.

    By then the market is not yet crashing and we will only see spreads reducing. But if then the reaction of the buyers is to blatantly take advantage of that they will start lowering the ‘sell now’ as well, then people start chase that and the vicious cycle is full in for the crash.



  • All i keep reading is wait for Thursday, obvs the "buy price" on players will drop as folk can list players lower than 1p beneath buy etc, but as the IS is what people have been using for the at least the last 4 weeks i struggle to see why that would alter things to much as no one is market buying.

    FI have pretty much said they won't allow a rerun of "brown sunday" so unless they widen the bid ranges as the buy prices fall like before the stabilisers came on i struggle to see how it can be like the carnage before?



  • I think some players' prices will crash further once the limitations are removed. But some also look to be nearing a bottom imo and I could even see some small increases this week. Lewandowski, for example, looks great value at around the 2.30 mark. I submitted some bids, 1p above the best offer, at 2.20 yesterday which were never met because the price went up. People will be manipulating the market to make the most of low prices and I would be very surprised if some prime assets were not 10-20% higher by the weekend.



  • If people want to sell me a goalkeeper who got 17 clean sheets last season and starts for his country for 30p or less I will buy thanks.
    Similarly, if Lewa drops to £2 I will happily snap them up

    I would expect a drop as those who genuinely want to leave, sell and do so, while those who have been banging on about it.....PURELY to drive prices down for their own self-interest jump in and buy

    you have a solid view of FI mate. 3 year bet, great dividends on offer.
    DON'T over-stretch yourself financially though



  • @Sparks365 said in How sure are you the market will crash?:

    Seeing a lot of posts saying upon roll out of Thursday's changes the market will dive further - this doesn't bother me at all as I think within 12 months we'll see a huge upturn as money comes back into the system. 3 year bet as well.

    What is it that makes everyone so sure we'll see value depreciation? Wondering whether to free up some funds from other sources to try and scoop up some cheap players.

    Thanks for helping a relative newbie, really appreciate the support I get on the forum.

    There's a fairly big self-fulfilling prophecy element about it - if people think it will crash, they will sell causing the crash.

    I think its more a case of people expecting a crash will sell leading up to thursday causing further drops.

    But .... it goes the other way as well and I think there a lot of people thinking it will bottom out on thursday, waiting for that to happen and then expecting a recovery so are ready for that. And if people expect a recovery then ......

    Generally speaking most of the expected market changes actually do take place for this reason.



  • @Roon said in How sure are you the market will crash?:

    All i keep reading is wait for Thursday, obvs the "buy price" on players will drop as folk can list players lower than 1p beneath buy etc, but as the IS is what people have been using for the at least the last 4 weeks i struggle to see why that would alter things to much as no one is market buying.

    I think the Buy Price will drop significantly, but as you say the IS price is more relevant as that is price that we actually trade at.

    The handbrake has slowed the rate at which prices can fall, so a few players haven't hit the bottom yet. For example, I used to flip Jimenez when his IS was in the £1.20 range often making a 15p profit within 10 minutes of buying. I have been watching his Buy Price drop from £1.87 to £1.07 in the last 6 weeks. He is still falling at a rate of about 2p per day - slowed by the handbrake - and doesn't look like he has hit the bottom yet. I can see his price settling at 70p.

    Removing the handbrake will see the bottom reached and prices stabilise quickly. It shouldn't have much affect on players who have already bottomed out.

    The handbrake is allowing buyers to set the price and sellers have to take it or leave it. Once sellers can place sensible offers, IS might rise slightly.



  • @SDOAFIT

    I agree. The changes will be implemented on Thursday, but the market starts to react as soon as the announcement is made.

    The predicted crash is already happening. Hopefully recovery is round the corner.



  • @Sparks365

    We've been in a crash for a couple of weeks already.

    • 90 out of the top 100 are lower now than they were this time last week

    • and almost all of those were already down from the week previously

    • Only 18 of the top 500 players rose in the last week, and those "risers" were mostly made up of players who had taken a nose dive the week before like Bruno, so they are typically down over the two week period.

    The case could be made that people brought part of the crash forward by trying to get out before it and that with the 9 fixture IPD run coming up, along with the new Bid Depth feature, "business is about to pick up", BUT...

    • New Tools = Uncertainty

    • There's a lot of nerves surrounding the lifting of the restrictions (hence the current crash).

    • The default Port Value is set to change which could scare the bejesus out of some folk (and give false reassurance to others).

    • The new 2% commission means that those who were bidding in the middle of the spreads rather than at the bottom, will now be incentivised to bid lower than before, (though FI suggest the opposite will happen, so it could go the other way).

    I can see a scenario where there's a bit of a crash, followed by people (who are already prepared) pilling in... but if that happens, some will have a quick flip mentality, others who have been carrying losses will use the spike to bail out, the Sunday sell off will still happen but maybe to a lesser extent given the run of fixtures and hopefully the introduction of Circuit Breakers/Sessions will limit the blow, followed Monday with the Rebate to give liquidity a boost during a time of wall-to-wall football.

    At this point, it might be wishful thinking on my part. The underlying problems are still not sorted, xmas is coming up too and transfer season.



  • @Dan-The-Man Xmas is coming up and covid is fucking the economy up left and right.
    I dont see much really happening untill the start of next year at best.

    Im hoping it dosnt tank to badly even further, however I wouldnt get my hopes up to high about a massive return to a robust strong marktet anytime to soon, will be a slow painful process imo.



  • There will definitely be a huge crash.

    The selling pressure is immense. Most of the platform has been trying to sell up for 3 months but haven't been able to get a sell price other thn IS.

    Its going to be a bloodbath.



  • @NewUser395079 said in How sure are you the market will crash?:

    There will definitely be a huge crash.

    The selling pressure is immense. Most of the platform has been trying to sell up for 3 months but haven't been able to get a sell price other thn IS.

    Its going to be a bloodbath.

    @NewUser395079 😂🤦🏼‍♂️ pretty much every time you chip in with a remark it’s low quality scaremongering. You say you have a £6k port. So that means your either:
    A/ pretty dumb, and happy to poison your own well.
    B/ Trying to drive prices down further. 😏 I suspect the latter. But the more I hear you talk, option A is starting to grow on me.



  • I think there will be plenty of insane bargains on Thursday - some players would sell for a lower price than permitted by current conditions. But I also expect investment into prime assets and consequent rises. I could even see some before Thursday. The dividend leaders - Messi, Lewa, Kimmich (albeit injured) are dropping to oddly low levels and they wont remain so low for more than a few days.



  • @Valhalla said in How sure are you the market will crash?:

    @NewUser395079 said in How sure are you the market will crash?:

    There will definitely be a huge crash.

    The selling pressure is immense. Most of the platform has been trying to sell up for 3 months but haven't been able to get a sell price other thn IS.

    Its going to be a bloodbath.

    @NewUser395079 😂🤦🏼‍♂️ pretty much every time you chip in with a remark it’s low quality scaremongering. You say you have a £6k port. So that means your either:
    A/ pretty dumb, and happy to poison your own well.
    B/ Trying to drive prices down further. 😏 I suspect the latter. But the more I hear you talk, option A is starting to grow on me.

    I think it’s definitely A.



  • Great thread, sensible answers, is the forum bouncing back after it's crash?

    One thing I'd chuck in, is after seeing the absolute slaughter of FI on twitter this wknd, along with SS hijacking last Friday, I'd bet there will be a promo this week. If it is a decent one, this would be perfectly timed as there is definitely money waiting to pounce on Thursday. If they can turn the day into a buying frenzy rather than a selling frenzy it could turn the tide as those fully wanting out will most likely get there chance and those looking to put money in will get a nice boost.



  • @Westy said in How sure are you the market will crash?:

    Great thread, sensible answers, is the forum bouncing back after it's crash?

    One thing I'd chuck in, is after seeing the absolute slaughter of FI on twitter this wknd, along with SS hijacking last Friday, I'd bet there will be a promo this week. If it is a decent one, this would be perfectly timed as there is definitely money waiting to pounce on Thursday. If they can turn the day into a buying frenzy rather than a selling frenzy it could turn the tide as those fully wanting out will most likely get there chance and those looking to put money in will get a nice boost.

    It's Black Friday/Cyber Tuesday weekend... Can you remember if they did something last year promo-wise for it?



  • @Dan-The-Man don't think they did.

    These are "unprecedented times" on the index. I'd scrap some of the no doubt numerous promos they have in the calendar and get a decent one in now, if they're worried about costs, scrap 2 or 3 of the future ones. We need a positive buying race, not a selling race anymore.

    I wonder how they plan to use the 60m they are trying to raise though? Perhaps they see the crash as an opportunity before unveiling future features and news? Have they wanted it to crash all along? 🕵️‍♂️



  • They did 12days of Christmas I think? I seem to remember a few angry tweets (they stood out those day) about no black Friday as I think there was a dip (nothing like this) around then too.



  • @Westy said in How sure are you the market will crash?:

    They did 12days of Christmas I think? I seem to remember a few angry tweets (they stood out those day) about no black Friday as I think there was a dip (nothing like this) around then too.

    I wouldn't be against or surprised by something.

    We have the rebate thing which is pretty great. It doesn't encourage new deposits as such but feeds the liquidity. There was a noticeable shift in mood from Monday-Thursday last week. Partly because some were hyped for the announcement but you could see the liquidity moving through the market on Monday afternoon/evening.

    It will be interesting to see if we experience that again today.



  • @Dan-The-Man ive fired a few test missiles. Kane was accepted straight away at lowest bid, so far the rest havent been accepted.


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