Supply vs demand



  • In the long run a players value is determined by the dividends they produce - there are loads of other threads on this - but over shorter periods its the balance of supply vs demand that counts. Real markets (i mean stock markets etc) can reach huge over or under valuations depending on whether everyone is trying to get in or get out. It makes absolutely no difference what you or I think something is "worth" - if everyone else is selling it, the price will go down. What is evident from the bid depth info we now have is that there is a huge excess of supply in the market - we sort of knew before from the number of players with no bids at all, but now with the bid depth it is clear that there are a lot more shares for sale than others are willing to buy. There may be a lot of "value" in the market but it would seem that overall no-one is willing to put their money where their mouth is.



  • @Columbia Be interesting to see when someone scores 300+ points in an early game how that affects things, Especially if they are a 40p def for example



  • @Columbia surely then (like with any over valued asset) demand dries up until pro e has a correction. Then once low enough, demand kicks in again?

    Especially given dividends there is a floor to how low prices will go (given that we can quickly recoup costs with dividends if Messi is say £1, etc...



  • Is sellers hold firm buyers will buy at higher prices



  • @NewUser683052 said in Supply vs demand:

    @Columbia surely then (like with any over valued asset) demand dries up until pro e has a correction. Then once low enough, demand kicks in again?

    Especially given dividends there is a floor to how low prices will go (given that we can quickly recoup costs with dividends if Messi is say £1, etc...

    Correct. The question is, how much do prices have to adjust to correct the imbalance? Looking at the current state of the market though I'm certainly in no rush to buy anything, and the 2% bid tax is another disincentive.



  • @Archer22 said in Supply vs demand:

    Is sellers hold firm buyers will buy at higher prices

    You could equally say if buyers hold firm then sellers will sell at lower prices. All we know at the moment is that there are a lot more sellers than buyers.



  • @Archer22 Looking at Sancho and sellers not holding firm, its the buyers that are. 10 minutes ago his lowest sell price was 88 at £7, top bid was £6.35. that's still the top bid, lowest sell price is now 15 at £6.85!!



  • @Columbia

    It's situations like this one where it's interesting.

    Screen Shot 2020-11-19 at 09.59.17.png

    Basically, if someone hoovers up the £7.07-£7.11 offers, Sancho's BUY PRICE could spike (depending on what the next set of prices is) but would the bids go with it?



  • @Dan-The-Man The volatility in his share price is crazy this morning. He was 8.24 bid/8.63 offered at 9.16am when is screenshotted it



  • @Dan-The-Man The bid's may go with it, it all depends on the sellers holding fire for the price they want. I understand dropping your price a couple of pence, but to sell for 50p-£1 lower is suicide IMO



  • All depends what price people got in on really....people clearly want the players though they are just being stingy



  • @Archer22 I think in the likes of Sancho people can see he was selling for much higher just 30 minutes ago, just needs a bit of patience.



  • @Archer22 said in Supply vs demand:

    All depends what price people got in on really....people clearly want the players though they are just being stingy

    Or realistic. Faced with this sort of market who would be in any rush to buy? If I buy someone today I doubt he would be 20% higher tomorrow, but he could well be 20% lower. At the moment there is very little upside and a big downside as far as I can see from the information we now have.



  • Well after 2 days of this it still looks like there is absolutely no let up in the supply, and very little demand. It seems that there are a lot of people who do not care about what potential dividend yields are, they just want out before they lose another 30%. This is what a market crash looks like and it usually results in a huge overshoot to the downside as all the sellers are finally cleared out before it stabilises. We appear to be in such a phase at the moment, but where the bottom is is anyones guess.



  • Well i'd imagine the bottom for the top players can't be too far below £2? Surely then people will want to keep hold of them for the dividend returns alone. I think everyone else will hit the £1 pound or below mark. They won't go down to 0 as there comes a point when its worth holding on (probably around 30 to 50 pence for your Danny Ings type players)



  • Not posted much. Been in for about 18 months. Embarrassed to say I now have for too many holds in far too low value players. Already starting to worry how on earth I get any money back before I’ve held them for 3 years and they get lost. Totally agree re demand and supply. I think the market was originally built on word of mouth. That’s the new big problem in my opinion. Who now would recommend their mate sank some money in?



  • @Degs The 3 year expiration is not active, and probably never will be, don't worry about that.



  • This is the time to recommend your mate should invest believe it or not,all the rich investors buy at the bottom,the time not to recommend was in the last year when everybody did encourage their mates. You can only judge the market as it is and as of today you should be investing heavily.



  • @NewUser65276 I wouldn't even recommend it to that Daily Mail reading knobhead at work who parks in the disabled space.



  • Tell every one you know to sign up. Empty your bank accounts and pile in . Prices so low it's like opening up the back door and helping yourself


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