Thoughts of an ill-informed plonker

  • I joined the index I think around September 2019 odd. Read about it online and thought you know what, this sounds like a stocks and shares type product but in something I'm actually actively interested in. Did some research, signed up, read the forums and the videos, then over the next several months put money into the platform that I would have maybe placed elsewhere into a savings account.

    I felt like I had a reasonable grasp on things (ha!) and made some investments in players who I thought would get a big move in the coming months/years. This was based on the apparent increase in pricing of some of the current crop of star younger players and seeing their huge jumps. I knew about dividends, although I didn't place much stock in them at the time as I figured I would get more return from seeing a player's value rise due to their real world value and transfers. I would go as far to say that a lot of people viewed the platform in the same or similar way to me. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

    Then.....the crash happened. And the massive changes....and the constant tinkering that followed. Now, I've only invested 1500 and have not put any more in since the crash. I'm currently sat at -45% of my portfolio value. I've not panicked, I've not sold up. I don't need the money and I certainly do not want to sell up on a massive loss (comparatively speaking).

    I've monitored the forums since the crash and looked to see what people have to say. Previously, I saw some distinct camps. Some people ran around screaming the end is nigh, all the money is going, sell up and run before it's too late. Some said don't listen to that nonsense, stick with it and it will be fine. Others have said oh my god what a time to buy! Amazing value out there.

    A few months later and the sentiment has changed. Those that said stick with it, are still here it seems...still nervously plodding on waiting to see what happens with portfolios depleted further than they thought was possible. Those that screamed buy now!!!...also seemed to have quietened down. They said that when Sancho had dropped to 15...then 12....then 10...then 7.…They are still saying it, but just not as frequently it seems. Those that ran around screaming get out, have all but gone - but there seems to be a lot more people not screaming, but actively demonstrating, that they are trying to leave. A lot.

    Now I get that there is great value to be found in players through their earnings in dividends. But that's now - I don't think it was quite so heavily leaned on when I signed up. Am I showing my ignorance and my misunderstanding of the product at that time? Probably. But I bet there were a lot of people like me that made up a good chunk of the client base. The raft of monumental changes has utterly changed the game and something that I saw as an investment to be monitored and added to periodically, has changed into something that is almost a full time job, if you want to make any money. Dividends are all well and good, but when players base value fluctuates so much, it's hard to see how the value balances out.

    I still see people saying things will get better, and their reasoning of a worldwide pandemic, economic uncertainty, Christmas, the euros next all very reasonable. But prices are only going to start rising if people buy into the market. Why would new people buy into the market when FI is utterly surrounded by negativity? Why would existing users put more money into the platform when so many have seen catastrophic depreciation of their portfolios? Surely there is going to have to be a MASSIVE surge in investment for those that sat on their hands and waited, to see even a reasonable recovery of their portfolio, let alone a return to a possible profit.

    Sorry for the lengthy post, but I just wanted to get some thoughts out I've had for a while. I'd really like to know where this surge will come from and how FI are going to attract people back again.

  • @pompey88 great post... Iv nothing really to say, I'm trying to keep faith and have continued to re invest any divs and have made a few small deposits. I have no idea what happens next but it's a shitshow without a doubt. If FI somehow rewarded the loyal customers or just acknowledged how badly they have been treated, things could change.

  • @pompey88 said in Thoughts of an ill-informed plonker:

    Why would new people buy into the market when FI is utterly surrounded by negativity?

    Excellent post! Like your good self, I consider myself to be an ill-informed plonker.
    You ask: "Why would new people buy into the market when FI is utterly surrounded by negativity?"

    Fortunately, the world is full of ill-informed plonkers. Given time, I am sure many will sign up!

  • Fi have executed a pretty woeful transition to order books that have slashed our portfolios. But at the end of the day, the dividends have doubled, the value is extraordinary. This kind of return you can’t get elsewhere. Players can conceivably return 100% in a matter of months. But ppl have got to stop slitting their own throats. FI have removed themselves from the market and said “we, the traders, are now the market”. We gotta stop shitting the bed, stabilise and then build up from there. If the divs weren’t so generous, I would have been gone long ago. But I believe in the product there’s nothing else like it. I absolutely love match days.
    Once the market stabilises and ppl realise it’s not Armageddon, these harrowing last few months will quickly recede over the horizon when the profit starts rolling in. Ppl are greedy by nature, and when we are making money we have short memories. If it’s rolling in come spring early summer, we will be like “crash, what crash?” Its happened before, it will happen again. Just gotta hang on in there. It’s only superficial loses at the mo that could change on the back of one positive announcement. But they are solidified into “real” loses if you sell.

  • In the recent update from FI they say that they working to use liquidity providers, I hope this is implemented pretty quickly. Short and simple we need more money going into the platform from
    Any source. For some big investors there is good
    Money to be made for sure. Don’t know how much would be required to move the market back to where we were though. I’ll keep putting the same weekly amount as I always have done but am sure plenty have gotten sick of the constant drops and are waiting to see how it pans out I assume that’s what’s hit Us and the index the hardest

  • @Valhalla

    I'd disagree that the value is extraordinary. Value is calculated by return x risk. Yes the returns are good on a lot of players at the moment, but the risk is also very high. I still believe that many players are overvalued based on the current level of risk. They've not yet reached their true value because FI put various mechanisms in place to slow the decline.

    Some players are definitely undervalued at the moment and their price is being dragged down by the overall market sentiment, however many players, especially some of the more expensive ones still have a way to go in my opinion.

    The decline won't be constant, there will be ups and downs on the way, but I still think the general trend will be down for a while. The market will also over correct and will go below the true value of players at some point, that's obviously the best time to buy.

    People keep saying that prices will go back up or I'm not selling at these low prices but a lot just seem to be basing these statements on the fact that prices are lower than they were before. There are, in my view, only two ways that prices will go back up; either income needs to increase (seems unlikely, I can't see FI raising dividends for a while) or the risk needs to come down (FI need to inject a significant amount of liquidity into the market, this seems more likely but given they've had months to do this I wouldn't count on a solution soon).

  • It may be throwing good money after bad, although like most my portfolio has dropped like a stone recently, I’m sticking with it and treating it like a normal market (although I’m fully aware it’s not one without a fixed supply) and buying the dip/slide/depression. Time will tell.... Good luck to all - for what it’s worth I’m focusing on players I think can (and have) won dividends who I think are good value - so Donnarumma, Gollini, Rashford, Neves (sub 50p what!), Laporte (come on pep give him a game!) etc and yes I’ll say it Pogba (maybe a while before I get any CA as I’m over £5 average - (and to be fair sold at £7.50 but bought back in :-@ - anyway it’s coming down daily at the moment with his media divs. Stay strong but as always do what’s right for you.

  • @pompey88

    Whilst FI's recent management & transition to OB's has been nothing short of woeful, prices have been driven lower by the mechanics of OB's as much as actual selling (clearly lots of traders have sold up & left, many in a toxic atmosphere of betrayal & mistrust, which is a problem in itself).

    Prices can equally rise quickly without much buying demand as well, under OB's, but clearly not whilst market sentiment is so negative & every incentive is still there to undercut prices & delay any potential buying.

    FI need to stabilise the ship & start giving traders incentives to buy & hold instead of sell & hold cash in the short term but rebuilding sentiment & future growth is a much bigger challenge which will need sustainable & long term competency, trust & confidence which is still a little while away from being established.

  • Yeah I really think that it needs to go back to just buy and sell in a queue. All bids at the moment are at or near the minimum level because buyers know that people will sell.

    Order books, with this sentiment have snowballed the crash. The footie was 362 on 18th October... it's now 184. Almost 50% down in less than 2 months.

  • @pompey88 Great post. You have captured the different sentiments perfectly and I would be interested in knowing your perception for sentiment for moving forward.

    Personally, I think we are close to the equilibrium point regarding sentiment as many are not as vocal anymore (Both Positive and Negative).

    I have noticed more people are now trying to work together to stop the bleed and to start to try to stabilize the platform.

    From a psychological perspective, this is fascinating as humans will always try to stop destruction to protect themselves, but more importantly, try to work together for the better good.

    I still remain positive throughout this despite my overly positivity sentiment being tested over the last few weeks

  • I’ve been confident that Fi will come good all the way through this mess, but the last couple of days have got me for the first time starting to question the future of the index. I am desperate for fi to succeed as we all are but we need some kind of big announcement very soon or I fear the worst

  • @NewUser515012 Hang in there as FI is going nowhere, as they are very liquid and constantly growing (We just cant see that presently).

    I have never been through a bear market before from start to finish but I fully expect FI to succeed over the long term.

    Forget the short term and start thinking in years as opposed to weeks or months.

    This platform is an investment for me as I have no interest in gambling or the short term game, so happy to buy each week no matter what way the market is moving on the premise that this is actually an index and not a spread bet.

  • This post is deleted!

Log in to reply