Neymar at £4
I know there really isn't much money going into the platform right now but is anyone tempted by this? Seems low.
Prices are so low .... let’s buy now .... familiar story unfortunately
People just keep selling .... no idea why !
Unless the platform starts moving in the right direction then I’ll wait and pick him up for £2.50 by February
@Three-lions not sure if either of you have seen but he got a serious injury last night. Stretchered off the pitch in injury time, papers are suggesting a suspected broken ankle. Hence the collapse in his price.
ocs123 last edited by
Happens every season to him. No big deal.
Happens around his Sisters birthday/Xmas every year without fail. He will be ok in January.
Happens when he gets a red card
Oh no .... I won’t earn any dividends on him for a few months ..... let’s flog him off for pittance and drive his price down 50% in the space of a week then moan about how the platform is crashing with no end in sight
I know ..... let’s blame FI for that too
Around 4 or 5 months ago I valued a lot of players based on their risk and their earnings potential. Some of the values the model spat out were Pogba at £2.80, Bruno at £5.90, Sancho at £4.80 and Messi at £4.80. People thought I was being a doommonger and my figures were ridiculous. However a few months on and those players are now roughly what I felt their true value was.
Using the same model I got a value of £2.60 for Neymar, so I think he still has a way to go before he levels off.
Now of course I could be totally wrong and all these players could rebound, however I honestly don't think they will until the risk of holding is reduced, that means the third party liquidity providers need to be on board. Until that time I wouldn't be touching Neymar at £4, injury or no.
@Three-lions Can't you see that the system is effectively flawed when one side (FI) can pay £0 for their shares whist you and me have to pay £4 for the same share?? Are people stupid or they just like throwing money away?
Go on then explain your model and the maths?
@NewUser693253 so why are you here ?
@NewUser693253 FI will hopefully make billions and we will make humble profits ... maybe thousands if we’re lucky enough.
Surely that’s why we’re here .... your getting the hump that FI are successfully making a fortune
Why don’t you invest in FI rather than just trading on their platform
@Three-lions For one to push for a fairer system, one that doesn't put the likes of me and you at odds against each other and two because a lot of people don't realise how skewed the current system is in favour of FI
Sure, I've done it in other posts, but happy to do it again.
Each player has a target rate of return, for me this is between 20% and 30% per annum, depending on the risk attached to the player. I then estimate the players returns over their remaining career. Their current value is the figure I'd pay now to get that rate of return over a three year period, taking into account the exit price, which I model in the same way.
There are obviously a lot of variables and assumptions in play. Other people may be happier with earning less than 20% to 30% per annum. I could also be completely wrong on a player's earnings potential and remaining career length. Some else could use the exact same model and come up with a completely different value for a player. That's the beauty of FI and that's where the trading should be happening, if I value a player at a £1 but you value him at £2 I can sell to you at £1.50 and we'll both be delighted at the business we've done.
It's a lot harder to value young up and coming players as it's more difficult to value their potential dividend return as there is less historical information to go on so this method doesn't work well for them, but for more established players it seems to work pretty well.
My model does slightly under value players as it doesn't take into account IPD's (this only really becomes a problem at low prices where people are basically flipping for IPD's, you'd need to value these players differently but it's not a game I play) or TOTM (as there's not enough data for me to include it at the moment).
Looking at Neymar's returns over the last three months since I valued him I actually think I have undervalued him. I've just rerun and I'm getting around £3.50 now. He had a pretty bad 6 months for divs just before I did the valuation and I probably took that into account too hard. I'd not revalued as I sold all my Neymar shares at the time and hadn't been looking to get back in.
Neymars a difficult one for me. In some respects his risk is quite low as he is a genuine PB beast in PSG and will always pick up dividends while he is there. He is however massively injury prone and if he moves to another league he may see his divs drop as he competes with better players. I don't think he's an awful buy if you can get him for £3.50 but I think there is a much better value elsewhere.
Kozo Kira last edited by
@GeoffS just out of curiosity, how much back in time you go to project future yearly dividends? Last twelve months? Whole life on the index?
ocs123 last edited by
Hmmm... Neymar won £1.34 in dividends last season and dividends have since been increased by 67% to 100%.
Even allowing for the fact that he always misses 2-3 months per season through injury, I would be interested to know how your valuation model reaches a figure of £2.60? Are you factoring in the risk of a surprise move to China or something?
I'd be valuing him at least £6 on the basis that he should easily deliver £2 in dividends per season, so a 100% yield over 3 years. Then the resale value is pure profit.
At the time I did the valuation he'd won 80p in the previous 12 months, so that's why I came in low. This is one I got wrong, but at the time I was doing this for around 200 players so I didn't go into them in a massive amount of detail.
If we assume £2 per year then I'd valued at about £6.40. I'm not convinced he'll get £2, probably more like £1.25, however, like I said I think he's a difficult one due to all the injuries and the risk of a move to Barcelona (which will be great short term for MB but might not be great for PB as he'll be competing against better players, including Messi. Of course if Messi leaves that changes the calculation again). So each valuation is a moveable feast rather than a static figure and you need to revise it over time. I'd not bothered with Neymar as I still think there is better value out there. There are some players who are more than £2 below my valuations of them so those are the ones I'm buying up at the moment.
At the time, because I was valuing 200 players odd players so I just plugged in the figure for the last 12 months, I made a couple of minor adjustments where I knew players had moved or their circumstances had changed but I didn't go into each player in a lot of detail, the adjustments were just based on gut instinct and my general knowledge. Now I'm just doing it as one off valuations before I buy I'm spending a bit more time on it. The period will vary from player to player but generally I look at 3 months, 12 months, 2 years and lifetime to try and get a feel for their future earnings potential.
I'll also look at their average PB scores and the Standard Deviation of those scores. It might be that a player has earned a lot of Divs but has just been lucky, or might have posted several scores that would usually win but has just been unlucky. Whilst a high average is good a high SD is also important. I'd rather have someone who posts 50, 200 and 350 than someone who posts 180, 200 and 220.
@GeoffS We had a conversation about this a month or so ago and I came up with valuations even lower than yours. The trouble is since then we have had
- increase in trading costs
- massive increase in volatility
- further decrease in confidence
- increase in platform risk
All of which means that my required rate of return has had to go up a lot and so the valuations have collapsed further. I'd currently value Bruno at 2.08 and Sancho at 1.30 for example. In fact all the so called "premium" players are still way too high for me, the value is in the lower end of the market.
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