Best time of the month to buy a player for a short term hold?
I'm looking for short term holds for a quick flip on players for around 5% profit each time after commission. Wondered if anyone else had any similar proven techniques they could share?
Obviously if it was so easy we would all do it..
That said, I find there are certain undervalued players who go through cyclical ups and downs. Henderson is a great example - he often fell into the 30s but you knew you could sell in the 40s. Recently he fell into the 20s but his worth was clearly higher. For some you need patience, especially in this market, but the rewards are clear. Aspas offered another example, falling into the low 20s but with clearly a higher value (now he will go in the late 30s or early 40s)
My best advice is to focus on players who are undervalued with respect to dividend earning potential. And focus on the bottom end where increases are highest, with some increasing over 50%. And be patient.
@NewUser572477 I don't think there is a best time of month. Day of the week relative to match day is more relevant.
If a team played on Sat and Wed every week you could probably buy them lower on a Sun and Thurs and sell higher on a match day. Prices usually rise after confirmation of team selection and spike on a good performance.
To make 5% after commission you need 9% CA. On a 20p player that only requires a 2p fluctuation. Very easy on a small scale, but presumably harder with volume as your bids/offers will affect the price and take longer to fulfil. You can't have open bids and offers at the same time, so waiting for a large bid to be matched will prevent you selling the shares that have.
In the 20p range you can flip several times per day at low volume,
Zizou last edited by
I've been doing this a lot over the past few weeks and timing is everything. There's no specific time to buy really, just have to look at players individually who are undervalued. There are quite a few players who regularly go up and down and you can capitalize if you have the cash ready to go. I'd be inclined to wait another week or so and the market should reach another "bottom" before having another mini boom.
I normally aim to make 8-10% after commission which can be a bit difficult to time right and one of the key things I've found is not to get too greedy. have your exit price and be prepared to stick to it or lower it. If you try and increase it you could miss your exit opportunity. It's a good way to make small consistent gains but the risk is huge when you get it wrong in the current market. A successful trade normally gets me between 8-14% commission, a bad trade can be up to 50% loss.
I only have one player in my port and am using this strategy short term trading. My last trade I got the timing wrong so I can sell up at 30% loss currently or hold a bit longer and hope he spikes.
Another key mistake I made initially was maybe trying to be a bit too clever, nobody is likely to buy Caputo off you unless he gets a hat trick so try and stick to the more well known players who people are more inclined to buy. A year ago you could pretty much buy any old crap but now you have to make better decisions.
@NewUser572477 Thiago Almada may be in for a rise, he has been linked with Man. Utd. Ridle Baku also may see a spike. he is cururrently recognised as a midfielder but playing in defence so when this gets rectified he may get a pb boost.
I’ve hold mason greenwood I’m not sure about hitting the 5% after sales commission you’d have to do your maths but recently hes been bouncing between 2.45-2.80 maybe a bit expensive for your strategy I’m not sure , another player I’ve been keeping an eye on is morata bounces regularly
Look for players with 5/6/ or even 7 fixtures inside 30 days sub £1 that have G/A Involvment 0.7+ not go far wrong with any that fall into this.
hes been bouncing between 2.45-2.80 maybe a bit expensive for your strategy
I think it is lower risk flipping cheaper players. Get someone for 18p and you only have to sell for 20p. If the quick flip doesn't come off, you only need 1 goal or assist to collect dividends or create a spike.
I bought 150 Raul Garcia at 10p. He scored same day. I should have sold on the spike but held to collect IPD and hopefully take advantage of some soft fixtures. Unfortunately, he got sent off in the next game and his price dropped to 7p (ave). This is probably my least successful short term flip, but simply making the team sheet will raise his price enough to return a profit.
The biggest risk with a player at this price and age is retirement or long term injury. If you are only planning to hold for a few days, you would have to be very unlucky. I'm more nervous about losing everything on my Messi shares than my 10p shares.
@Honeylight yeh I see what your saying had a little look fosu mensah at 15p looks decent to flip I’m not in that sort of trading myself but with europa league games comeimg could get a few games