Mariano Mistske



  • I have just purchased a few shares in the Lyon forward Mariano DIAZ at 87p... However I very nearly ended up buying the Galatasaray 30+ year old right back simply known as Mariano for £1.51 instead...

    Maybe I’m missing something, but for me there is no way the Galatasaray right back should be priced so high given his age and the league he plays in...

    I’m thinking people may not realise what Mariano they are getting...

    Can someone let me know their thoughts on this please?



  • There are a few players like this in the top 200.

    It's due to them being high priced at IPO. If you look at the year graph on price you can see little or no movement. The index will probably catch them up at some point. Some examples I have found are;

    Perin
    Milner
    Mariano
    Romeu
    Mangani



  • @ChampagneCharlie said in Mariano Mistske:

    I have just purchased a few shares in the Lyon forward Mariano DIAZ at 87p... However I very nearly ended up buying the Galatasaray 30+ year old right back simply known as Mariano for £1.51 instead...

    Maybe I’m missing something, but for me there is no way the Galatasaray right back should be priced so high given his age and the league he plays in...

    I’m thinking people may not realise what Mariano they are getting...

    Can someone let me know their thoughts on this please?

    Very good choice to buy Diaz. :)

    Similar issue with Adama Traore. He is known as 'Adama' on the index but there is a player called Adama Traore who plays for Monaco. No idea how good he is but his price is quite high so possible that this is a case of mistaken identity?

    Quick fix would be for search results to show the name of the player and club as opposed to just the name. Would be relatively easy for FI to implement as the info is already there just not immediately visible. The whole search and filter system needs improving to be honest but this would be a start.



  • @metropolis yeah he looks the part! I actually made this mistake with Adama traore.. Had some futures in him and didn’t even realise until the actual Adama I wanted showed up the other week. The Monaco one even has his current club as Middlesborough in the description ! ! !



  • Diaz is my biggest hold. There's no way he's not going up in price with his talent. Strikers are always in high demand with clubs.

    This guy could do a job for most Premiership clubs



  • @PaulR well I was almost willing to pay £1.51 for him, so was well pleased when I realised. He would be popular in the premiership - definitely catches the eye



  • Mariano Diaz only 24yrs old , scored 18 and assisted 4 . 91p for striker ... worth holding



  • Diaz's PB scores are truly awful. He has that little involvment in a game (other then scoring) that he'd need to score 4 in a match to threaten winning top forward. Obviously he's out of the top 200 & it's doubtful he'd ever win MB either.

    Good player & good goalscoring record in real life. But from an FI perspective his price will only continue to drop.

    He was £1.21 ish a share at one time & he's since dropped 30 plus pence for a reason



  • Look how many other players on here don't have great PB stats but are still above £1. There's limited number of MB and PB winners yet there's over a thousand players.

    I understand dividends can drive price, but its not the only factor clearly



  • Others are priced on their potential.

    Unfortunately for Diaz holders, despite playing for one of the TOP teams in the WEAKEST of the 5 qualifying leagues........ his PB scores are still terrible.

    If he was playing for Getafe in La Liga for example & was scoring freely, but not scoring great PB, you could argue that once he moves to a team that dominates most matches, his scores will improve. Making him a good cheap investment for the future.

    Obviously this is not the case for Diaz, who is one of many players that doesn't suit the way opta stats are generated.

    For the record when I first started in November I bought Diaz based on his stats & before I understood how the platform works. Once I'd found my feet I sold for a small loss & his price has continued to decrease ever since.



  • I understand your argument, but if what youre saying was true to how the platform functions then player prices need total recalibration.

    Take Insigne for example, he had 2 assists today but only made 105PB. That'd awful, he's never winning. He doesn't win media either, and it's unlikely he's moving from Napoli. Yet his price is £2:35. There are countless example of players like this.

    There are over a thousand players on the platform with only 5 dividend winners a day. Most of these players are a complete waste of money in terms of dividends, yet prices still do rise regardless.



  • Listen mate, I'm trying to do you a favour. If Diaz is your biggest holding then you need to reevaluate your understanding of how this platform works.

    Insigne has won multiple PB dividends in the past & hit £4 plus as a result. He's more than capable of scoring 200 plus PB scores. He hasn't in a while though & because of that & the fact he won't be involved in the WC, his price has plummeted over the last few months.

    A players value is very basically calculated on the number of potential dividends he can return over the 3 years you can hold them.

    There are other factors...... mainly transfer speculation, WC, Champions League, UEFA Cup etc....... But again these factors all come back to dividends. Is a player moving to another club going to mean better PB & MB. Is playing for a team in Europe or in the WC going to mean extra PB opportunities etc......

    This is my thought process anyway & it's working very well. I joined in November & my current ROI is at 76%.



  • @GarethG said in Mariano Mistske:

    Diaz's PB scores are truly awful. He has that little involvment in a game (other then scoring) that he'd need to score 4 in a match to threaten winning top forward. Obviously he's out of the top 200 & it's doubtful he'd ever win MB either.

    I disagree with this; I think you're way too focused on his immediate PB return rather than his MB potential.

    The big value on FI comes from those players who regularly compete for MB. Mariano Diaz is one of the cheap players that really could fly up to £3 or £4 next season because he will inevitably get linked to big clubs if his potency in front of goal continue. (Timo Werner is a good comparator at the current time).

    Think about what scoring a hatful of goals for a big French club has done for the transfer prospects of previous players. A 25yo Didier Drogba in 2003 would have been a dreadful prospect for PB. He played pretty similar to Diaz as an out-and-out striker so would have needed a hattrick to be in contention for PB. But because he spanked in dozens of goals for Marseille, he got a bit move to Chelsea and would then have been in the Top 10 in perpetuity.

    Mariano is a decent prospect. If he has a good 2018/19 season expect links to the European elite and his price to rise. Yes it's a gamble, but the potential rewards from 90p make him good value.



  • @GarethG said in Mariano Mistske:

    Others are priced on their potential.

    Unfortunately for Diaz holders, despite playing for one of the TOP teams in the WEAKEST of the 5 qualifying leagues........ his PB scores are still terrible.

    If he was playing for Getafe in La Liga for example & was scoring freely, but not scoring great PB, you could argue that once he moves to a team that dominates most matches, his scores will improve. Making him a good cheap investment for the future.

    Obviously this is not the case for Diaz, who is one of many players that doesn't suit the way opta stats are generated.

    For the record when I first started in November I bought Diaz based on his stats & before I understood how the platform works. Once I'd found my feet I sold for a small loss & his price has continued to decrease ever since.

    Please tell us more about how Opta stats are calculated. Should we be looking at players who are more of a central figure in the team then? Seems quite arbitrary sometimes, for example, a player who scores a 'winning goal' seems to earn more points than another who scores 2 in a gane? I'm sure it's not that simple, but still, a certain amount seems to come down to chance?



  • Timo Werner is a terrible comparison. Werner is currently overpriced (on his potential) but even playing for RB LEIPZIG he has won PB & threatened to win PB on other occasions. At 21 he's also an established forward for his country & has a WC to come, playing for one of the favs.

    To think Diaz will ever reach £3 or £4 is crazy IMO. There's an awful lots of 'ifs' in your prediction & to buy a squad player priced at 90p
    for his future MB potential makes no sense to me at all. In fact that would be a crazy strategy to employ.

    It's all opinions & we'll have to agree to disagree on this one.

    My last point on the subject

    Off just stats, which is a mistake all traders tend to make initially.

    DIAZ - 18 goals
    DEPAY - 19 goals

    You see this & think wow...... Depay is nearly £3 a share & I can buy Diaz for 90p...... bargain.

    The reality is Depay's style of play suits how OPTA stats are generated & as a consequence he's probably won in excess of 50p a share in PB this season. Whereas Diaz to my knowledge has barely ever broken 100pts.

    One will pay for himself in dividends & as a result see a significant price rise. The other will return zero & ultimately go the other way.



  • @metropolis have a look on @CleanShirtTrader FaQ, it has the break down of how the PB scores are calculated. It's a link to a photo of the breakdown.

    If you fancy a bit of extra work you can put any players average stats (found on whoscored or sofascore) into a simple spreadsheet to work out the players base line for PB scores.

    Once you know that every pass is 1 point, giving the ball away loses 3 points and an assist if worth only 10 you can understand how a player that tries to force the play can end up losing points and a sideways passer will rack up hundreds.

    A quick look at Depay and Mariiano Diaz' stats (example given above) shows that Mariano passing percentage and number of passes are both much worse than Depay which could be worth almost as much as a goal a game. With the similar scoring rates this means that Mariano would finish behind Depay in almost every game. If You are not the best PB player in your position on your own team then the low price can start to make sense.

    Always exceptions and players having good games. If he scored a hatrick on the first day of the season and won a triple PB he will go up 20p and you have a 50% ROI including the PB so could be worth a punt but it would be a punt.



  • @GarethG said in Mariano Mistske:

    Timo Werner is a terrible comparison. Werner is currently overpriced (on his potential) but even playing for RB LEIPZIG he has won PB & threatened to win PB on other occasions. At 21 he's also an established forward for his country & has a WC to come, playing for one of the favs.

    To think Diaz will ever reach £3 or £4 is crazy IMO. There's an awful lots of 'ifs' in your prediction & to buy a squad player priced at 90p
    for his future MB potential makes no sense to me at all. In fact that would be a crazy strategy to employ.

    I meant Werner is a good reference point based on how links to big European teams can inflate the price of a striker from a second tier / Europa League level. Werner's PB return hitherto doesn't justify his price; people are holding in anticipation of a big move.

    The fact is, we've seen dozens of players zoom up from the 50p-£1 ballpark to £2-4 based solely on their improved likelihood of MB returns. I've held Lukaku and Griezman and Mahrez from <£1 price points and saw big growth based solely on transfer rumours (before PB was even a thing). The prospects of a big transfer will invariably produce a raise, and a player scoring 20+ goals a season at Lyon will always be linked to bigger clubs.

    As you say, it's all about opinion, but I think this time next year we'll see Mariano closer to £2 than £1.



  • I've just read all this and gotta agree with Gareth here. The points scoring system is based around opta stats and traditional number 9's who don't get involved in alot of the build up play (hence the low number of passes per game) traditionally need to score at least 2 goals to win PB to make up for all the passing points other players get. Mariano is a prime example of this, similar to icardi. Insigne is alot more involved in open play and as such scores higher on a regular basis. If you started this post looking for advice, in my opinion, I would listen to Gareth as he has a good understanding of the PB system by the sounds of it. Playingcards talking about future MB potential is also a good strategy, however, it involves a lot of patience as you need rumours and links and stories to show the player could move in before they'll increase in price. Both equally successful theories... But at the end of the day it's buzz scores that ultimately drive prices and put any real value in players on the index. Read Gareth's posts, you'll learn from them on this thread.



  • Thanks for your views John.

    Just to tidy up a couple of comments I made above.

    With regards to the Diaz & Werner comparison. Werner has won top forward twice this season & yielded 16p per share. Not a great return I know, but he's playing in a far tougher league than Diaz & for a less dominate team. Diaz has returned ZERO & I standby my previous comments, the 2 are not comparable in anyway.

    With regards to the Insigne comments. I actually didn't own him until I did a little research. He had the 5th best average PB score of all forwards this season & was ranked above Griezmann & not far behind Ronaldo. Of course, Neymar headed the list by a distance. Unsurprisingly Diaz didn't feature in the top 50. Again, not comparable IMO.



  • This is basically a discussion that cleaves between the science of predicting PB return and the art of predicting MB return.

    You're focused on the former - which is totally fair - but I still think there's real potential value in the latter. It's what Football Index was built on for several years before PB was introduced.


Log in to reply
 

Looks like your connection to Football Index Forum was lost, please wait while we try to reconnect.