Questions from a new trader

  • Hi Everyone,

    I am new to the platform so first I'd like to apologise for if I have posted this in the wrong thread.

    I have a few questions before I start building my portfolio so I thought I'd ask them all at once.

    Is it wise to invest in players who could have transfer sagas dragged out over January i.e. Messi, Dele Alli, Erikson, Buendia etc.

    Is it wise to invest in players who are injured such as Van Dijk in hope that their price rises on their return?

    How do you know when there will be an IPO?

    Is there a software/Discord/Website people can use to predict how the market will change and find players who are growing fast etc.?

    Cheers Everyone

  • Transfers can be positive or negative PB divs wise, you might win some MB during holding then over a transfer story. E. G. If Messi gets a transfer this window, there will be a lot of media, so he would win MB divs, if he transfers to a pb league he should hold his value post transfer through PB vakue, maybe increase if to EPL as he will be in the mix for a lot of mb over his time in epl. But if he goes USA, yes hel still win MB during the transfer and some in the future but MLS isn't a pb league, so would have 0 pb value.

    Injury trading is a thing. The biggest drops tend to be on confirmed news of big injury, then you'll most likely see price steadily rise towards playing again.

    IPOs get announced by FI, usually atleast 24 hrs notice

    There are a bunch of websites now offering data services and portfolio tracking etc. Think one is called index alerts, free, and index gain has free and paid options. I use index gain, but considering to stop my paid account soon.

  • @NewUser320890

    Welcome to FI
    just out of interest
    What made you decide to sign up to Football index?
    was it one of the adverts you heard on the radio / TV in the last couple of weeks?

  • Hi @NewUser320890 and welcome to the Indec and the forum. With regards to transfer sagas, it's a tough one. Media dividends are regularly taken up by Mancheater United's most popular player, previously Pogba and now Fernandes. Hence his high price.

    Early 2020 was dominated by Sancho and his largely touted move to Utd. But Willian picked up a heck of a lot too. Ozil always knocks about. The likes of Alli, Eriksen, Buendia etc could well have a media run, but it's a bit of a lottery. It's simply who the media latch on to.

    Pogba is due a media run, with his impending transfer and his agent's antics. Sancho still hasn't moved but is he going to go to Utd now? If you look at his price graph over the last 12 months, he reached huge heights simply on the basis that he was expected to join Utd. The Pogba out-Sancho in saga could well take over, particularly with Euro 2020 on the horizon. I have a small Sancho holding bit I'm not sure.

    The only other thing I would say is injury returnees normally always rise, so VvD could be a great shout. I'm on Gomez for the exact same reason.

    Good luck pal

  • @qwertqwert I heard an ad on talksport

  • I would first ask yourself what you want to achieve from investing in FI? long term appreciation? dividend wins? are you flipping players on transfer news or are you hoping for the media buzz or performance to provide your dividends?

    The dynamics of the 'game' have slightly shifted in recent times... Playing the longer game could suit you well, injured players are great as you can get them at a good price early doors but beware, their price will be stale for the length of time they are injured, a couple of weeks before their return is usually a good time for investing in these?

    I would say 'mixed bag' best suits all needs... Messi is your PB god and will always provide a dividend return (see last night) whilst Bruno Fernandes is the darling of the index, Man Utd love them or hate them are too the darling of the index. Check players under a pound too, I recently got Harvey Barnes for 88p - a player who's potential is increasing by the week, who could be in line for the England Euros squad.

    I often tend to go for 'the best' player (or best couple of players) in each of the best teams, don't complicate it too much... who offers best chance of scoring high for example at Liverpool? (Salah/Mane/Trent/Robbo) Who is most talked about at Spurs? (Kane/Son)... Favourites grow faster than everyone else and you will see them move with any index rises.

    Just beware though... This is no longer (it used to be) a get rich quick scheme... you may have to put a lot in to get a bit back, spread across the best players in world football and some stars you think may be up and coming is usually safest practice when learning!

    Go in with an open mind to losing your investment though, I would put a conservative return of 20% within the length of your bet and review accordingly each month!

  • @NewUser320890 said in Questions from a new trader:

    @qwertqwert I heard an ad on talksport

    Some good advice on here, also if you click on Westys sig a few posts above there is a link to another discussion forum you might be interested in.

  • Dont spend a penny until you know this app inside out,you will lose 50% in days.Use all the forums and join any discord chat groups.Please dont buy a single share until your 100% informed of how this site works otherwise you potentially could lose a big chunk of money.

  • I agree with the wait and see approach.

    A couple of do nots 1) do not invest in youth players at the moment unless they regularly returning dividend winning PB scores. The likes of Greenwood have been grossly overpriced given their PB averages. Many of the younger players are still overpriced, with an assumption of progression to a better PB game and regular football overly factored into their price.

    Although Bruno worked incredibly well 2) I'd be wary of MB based buys from non-PB leagues. Buendia, for example, has never hit over 200 points but is more expensive than players who have done it and are currently returning divs in PB leagues. If he doesn't move now or in the summer it's hard to see how he justifies his price and if he does move will he start every week? It also seems like the price goes up too much for certain transfers in anticipation of returns. Although it was a very different market in the summer, the price changes of Werner and Havertz illustrate that too much expectation pushes prices too high. Szoboszlai offers a recent example. He has been on a downward trajectory since being valued at over £2 a month ago. There was even a thread on here where someone talked up buying him. The problem with this pricing is that it assumes the aforementioned - that he will justify his value with regular football and good PB scores in a team and league he hasn't played in before. There was also some excitement for Miranchuk at Atalanta for similar reasons despite the competition and rotation situation their (Although perhaps Papu's issues make him a little more tempting going forward). I think, on the vast majority of occasions, that waiting to see how a player settles is the best approach. Although you can make a quick buck off anticipation, of course.

    My advice would be to invest in the biggest dividend earners first. Messi, Bruno, and Kimmich offer pretty much guaranteed returns and there is some real value in defensive assets further down. There are plenty of good players who return IPDs regularly and occasional dividends at the 30-50p mark too. But it's important in this market to understand certain player cycles, which is hard when you've only just joined. Check out the FI data centre for dividend information. It's useful to check how often players achieve dividend winning scores before buying.

    And beware - this is a market that has been up and down since the introduction of OBs a few months ago. You've joined, in many ways, at a good time because prices are much lower than they were a few months ago. But another dip would not be a surprise and would likely come a week or so before an international break. If it happens the best approach, in my opinion, is to refresh your shares and use it as an opportunity to get out of holds that you regret.

    Good luck!

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