Messi, Ronaldo getting on a bit



  • With a few of the big names getting older, do people think they still represent the best value for someone buying now?

    • Messi - Age 33, Price £4.40, 12 month div yield = £3.57
    • Ronaldo - Age 35, Price £2.40, 12 month div yield = £1.70
    • Lewandowski - Age 32, Price £1.75, 12 month div yield = £0.93

    None of these are likely to be a 3 year bet, so the risk of retirement (or move to US/China) and loss of capital must be a consideration.

    If Messi goes to the US in the summer, he could be the biggest risk, but is this likely with a World Cup in 2022? Won't Messi want to be playing at the top level until after the WC?

    Will performance and dividends start to drop off as these players get older? Will they only play 70 minutes in the future reducing the chance of PB?

    Is 6 months dividends and a good exit price better than a longer hold with falling dividends and no exit price? Are dividends around the World Cup worth the possibility that Messi/Ronaldo might announce their retirement soon after?

    Interested to hear what people think.

    Surely the best investment is the player who replaces these legends.



  • @Honeylight

    With Messi the bet is i you think he will play at the top level for longer than 12 months, as evidenced by your post above and his 12 Month Div Yield.
    I suspect he will remain at Barca until the end of the 2022/23 season

    Just out of interest, do those figures include TOTM?



  • @qwertqwert Not sure. I've just taken the FI figures off of the player profile.

    Screenshot (12).png



  • @Honeylight

    Ah - i suspect they don't as FI don't seem to allocate the TOTM divs against the players - so that's another 23p

    Obviously age is a factor but even if you assumed he was only going to perform at 75% this season and 50% next and also assume that the PB/MB divs dont rise, he is likely to return well in excess of his current price in 2 years.

    The other thing to consider as well is whether most of the duration of the last 12 months his divs earned were during a time when they are less than half of what they are now in terms of PB/MB



  • Messi will earn a lot of divs over the period. He should cover himself in a year or so. That yield figure doesn't incorporate 12 months of the new structure, TOTM, or MDX - which is the case of Premiums is actually better than IPD. So I think he's pretty sound at 4-4.50. He's definitely not a three year bet - although he'll still get MB even in the States.

    Personally I don't see Lewandowski retiring anytime soon. I actually think he may well have another 3 years at Bayern in him - they call him 'the body' there because he's in such good shape.
    As a number 9 he doesn't need to run too much either. Again, at his price I don't think you can go too far wrong.

    Ronaldo for me is a tad riskier given age. He is still a great player but certainly not the Ronaldo of 2/3 years ago and doesn't have the same PB and MB appeal as Messi.



  • I bought Messi before Christmas. To sell going into hype of the 2022 world cup is my plan.

    Hopefully dividends will have clawed back a lot of his purchase price by then.



  • @Honeylight said in Messi, Ronaldo getting on a bit:

    With a few of the big names getting older, do people think they still represent the best value for someone buying now?

    • Messi - Age 33, Price £4.40, 12 month div yield = £3.57
    • Ronaldo - Age 35, Price £2.40, 12 month div yield = £1.70
    • Lewandowski - Age 32, Price £1.75, 12 month div yield = £0.93

    None of these are likely to be a 3 year bet, so the risk of retirement (or move to US/China) and loss of capital must be a consideration.

    If Messi goes to the US in the summer, he could be the biggest risk, but is this likely with a World Cup in 2022? Won't Messi want to be playing at the top level until after the WC?

    Will performance and dividends start to drop off as these players get older? Will they only play 70 minutes in the future reducing the chance of PB?

    Is 6 months dividends and a good exit price better than a longer hold with falling dividends and no exit price? Are dividends around the World Cup worth the possibility that Messi/Ronaldo might announce their retirement soon after?

    Interested to hear what people think.

    Surely the best investment is the player who replaces these legends.

    I would say Lewandoski is definitely a 3 year bet. That would take him to 35, Ronaldo’s age now. Zlatan is 37 and on fire. And you could argue he’s even more of a fitness freak than Ronaldo. He is obsessed by fitness, diet and maintaining performance. His dietician wife probably fry’s his balls if he even so much as glances at a Frankfurter 🌭



  • @Valhalla Zlatan is 39 but that just compounds your points even more, Ronaldo could be at an elite level till his late 30's.



  • @Valhalla Footballers do seem to be fitter and able to play longer these days. Gone are the days of celebrating with a few pints and kebab after the match.

    I remember a Chelsea player (can't remember who) saying that the arrival of the Italian players in the 90's, changed the drinking culture in favour of healthy living.



  • @Honeylight said in Messi, Ronaldo getting on a bit:

    @Valhalla Footballers do seem to be fitter and able to play longer these days. Gone are the days of celebrating with a few pints and kebab after the match.

    I remember a Chelsea player (can't remember who) saying that the arrival of the Italian players in the 90's, changed the drinking culture in favour of healthy living.

    Also, when Wenger arrived, he moved the fitness levels, healthy eating and healthy lifestyle (no smoking) to another level.


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