Matchday Analysis - 31st January



  • Hey guys! As promised yesterday, here's my matchday analysis from Sunday's games.

     

    I've decided I'll just be publishing one analysis on the forum from today onwards instead of 2 (either Saturday or Sunday), but you'll be able to view all the analysis from both weekend days and lots of other interesting FI related stuff on my new website - https://academy.indexscholar.co.uk

     

    Anyways enjoy!

     

    West Ham [1] – Liverpool [3]

     

    Mohammed Salah swept up the dividends in the top forward category with 2 goals against West Ham in a 3 - 1 win. Game winning goal points definitely played their part but in my opinion Salah fully deserved the dividend win. He started off slowly but gradually grew into the game and started to cause problems for The Hammers defence. At first he almost converted a nice cutback from Origi in the first half but his shot was well blocked.

    He grabbed his first goal of the game on 56 minutes in typical fashion from the right hand side. It marked the end of his barren 6 game run without a goal. He was able to place his shot into the far corner leaving after being played the ball by Curtis Jones who had an immediate impact coming off the bench.

    He netted his 2nd of the game on 67 minutes after a swift Liverpool break-away from a West Ham corner on the opposite end. He exquisitely controlled Shaqiri's whipped cross and slid the ball past Fabianski. It was a world class move finished off by a world class player.

    All in all, 239 PB points for Salah here with 61 touches, 6 shots (4 on target), 40 accurate passes, 1 key pass and 1 successful dribble attempt. He won't win PB often but when he gets these braces combined with game winning goal points he can be in with a shout.

    Has risen in price from a low of £1.71 on the 18th of January to current buy price of £2.42. Still a far way off his 1 year high of £4.12 but as the platform has become more dividend-centric with all the changes that have taken place over the past year, I wouldn't be investing at this price. There are cheaper forwards who will provide you with more opportunities to win dividends.

     

    Trent Alexander Arnold scored a fairly modest 113 points but he performed fairly well here, providing a brilliant cross field pass to Shaqiri which started off the counter attack which saw Liverpool score the 2nd. At £4.88 I wouldn't be rushing in to buy, but would certainly add him to my watchlist.

     

    And finally, a word on Thiago Alcantara. Played the full 90 minutes and was very impressive. What caught my eye with him was his ability to pick out a through pass. There was a moment were he cut inside from the left flank and played a defence-splitting pass through the West Ham defence. Origi could only get a toe on it to send the ball wide in the end, but it was a sublime piece of vision from the former Bayern and Barcelona man.

    In this game he had 121 touches, 93 accurate passes, 2 key passes, 1 cross and 6 long balls (3 accurate), He created a big chance and was influential on the defensive side too with 2 interceptions and 5 tackles. If he keeps his place in the side then he looks like a real snip at £1.58, as he's way down from his 1 year high of £2.79.

     

    Chelsea [2] – [0] Burnley

     

    Callum Hudson-Odoi has been a massive benefactor from the arrival of Thomas Tuchel at Chelsea. Classed as a Forward on the Index but playing as a right wing back is good news for holders. The numbers look good too. At the surface we've seen two respectable scores of 156 and 140 against Wolves and Burnley respectively.

    Beyond that however, in this game we saw him complete 90 minutes for the second successive game with 83 touches, 48 accurate passes (84.2%), 2 key passes, 11 crosses, 4 dribble attempts and 2 long balls. If he keeps playing in this position, I can see the potential for a PB win down the line if he's able to grab a goal involvement.

    The market has been quick to spot the opportunity however, as his price has shot up to £2.23 from £1.38 on the 23rd of January and a remarkable 1-year low of 89p. For those who don't hold I would advise to wait and see whether Tuchel continues to play him in the right wingback role, as the new Chelsea manager is known for tinkering with his tactics.

     

    Cesar Azpilicueta defied the odds to win star man with 261 points on a gold day for his holders. 28p in dividends for a player that is 46p at the time of writing is incredible. Scored the game winning goal for Chelsea with a powerful strike in a 2 - 0 win over Burnley. Wasn't fully nailed under Frank Lampard but appears to be 100% back in the starting fold in Tuchel's 3 at the back system, playing as the right-sided centre half just like he did under Antonio Conte to great success.

    His stats for this game were good with 106 touches, 84 accurate passes (87.5%), 1 key pass, 2 crosses and 9 long balls. Can be picked up now on bids for 35p, which is a cheap way in for a Chelsea starting defender.

     

    Marcos Alonso is another one who's been launched back into the picture at Chelsea, with the Spaniard scoring Chelsea's 2nd today. Controlled a beautifully weighted pass from Pulisic onto his chest and rifled a left footed volley into the top corner. Alonso's ability to score at the opposition end has never been in doubt, as it's the defensive side of his game which can be suspect. However, playing in his favoured left wingback role affords him that extra attacking freedom as he's got more insurance behind him from the left sided centre back (Rudiger). With his highest bid at 39p and down from a 1 year high of 94p he's another cheap option that I would be happy to pick up. But the cautious personality in me would say wait a little bit as he could be rotated with Ben Chilwell.

     

    Thiago Silva popped up here with 211 points and finished in 3rd place in the defender category. World class defender who could have been picked up at 28p last month. Wins performance dividends quite a bit and has won a bit of media in the past as well. At 52p now I'd be cautious though as he's 36 years old. All it takes is a single serious injury to wipe out your investment in him. Solid option but I'd personally stay clear of this one as his retirement date is theoretically closer than the other Chelsea defenders like Azpilicueta, Rudiger and Alonso.

     

    Mason Mount also played another blinder here, scoring an 8.0 rating on SofaScore. 154 points from 80 minutes is good, and he was involved in the game with 73 touches, 4 shots (all off target), 45 accurate passes (88.2%), 3 key passes, 10/14 ground duels won and 4 tackles. If he improves his shooting accuracy and subsequent goal output, he'd no doubt be an even better hold.

    He's risen to £2.27 on the back of his recent performances, which is a price I would be a bit hesitant to fork out for considering the fact that English players tend to cost more than their European counterparts. But if he dipped again to around the £1.50 - £1.70 mark I'd be more tempted to have a look.

     

    Also, a quick shout-out to Jorginho who scored 191 with no goals or assists here and 154 in his previous game with no goals or assists either. If he continues to get starts, he'll be back in the mix. He's way off his 1 year high of £2.16, and with the current highest bid sitting at 64p he looks a decent shout.

     

    Patrick van Aanholt [DEF – Crystal Palace]

     

    The Dutch international recorded a score of 186 with no goals or assists in his game against Wolves at home.

    He has a decent PB record despite playing for a mid-table Premier league side.

    Looking back at last year he's produced some 140's and 150's although we have to go back all the way to 22nd February 2020 for his highest score of 291. The ability to win dividends is certainly there, but you might be looking at a long wait as Palace aren't a team that's usually on the front foot with regard to ball possession.

    Still, at a price of 37p he is worth a punt. You only need to look at a player like Azpilicueta to see that the reward is possible. The Chelsea captain is trading at 45p and he won a gold day star man worth 28p against Burnley.

     

    Brighton & Hove Albion [1] – [0] Tottenham Hotspur

     

    Pascal Gross caught everyone's attention with his performance in a 1 - 0 win against Tottenham. 232 PB points to seal the win in the MID category playing in a central midfield position he was influential in dictating Brighton's attacks.

    79 touches, 40 accurate passes (83.3%), 14 crosses, 2 long balls, 1 assist and 3 dribble attempts was quite impressive considering Spurs had 57% ball possession.

    Can be picked up on bids at around the 25p mark which is very cheap. Although Graham Potter does favour rotation in his side, Gross has played 90 minutes in the last 3 games, racking up 151 points against Fulham with no goals or assists and a 90 pointer against Leeds who dominated the ball with 66% possession. There's value all over the market and Gross exemplifies this with his win.

     

    Another Brighton player who I really like the look of in the bargain bin category is Solly March. He scored 153 points against Spurs and has been playing in a left wingback role whenever called upon. Classed as a midfielder he's OOP in a good way. He's also registered a 193 score last month against Sheffield United with no goals or assists. Potential is definitely there with the highest bid on him currently standing at 17p.

     

    Liam Cooper [DEF – Leeds United]

     

    Leeds captain Cooper has been out with injury at various parts of this season but he's a defender who does decently enough on the matrix. He has a PB average of 129.4 in the last 5 games and played the full 90 minutes in 4 of those games, scoring once against Manchester United.

    If he's able to pop up with a goal whilst playing the full 90 there's scope for a win I feel.

    At present he has no bids on him which shows the problems that the Football Index are having with liquidity in the market.

     

    Koen Casteels [GK – VfL Wolfsburg]

     

    Casteels came 3rd in the goalkeeper PB standings with a clean sheet and 137 points locked in after a 3 - 0 win against Freiburg.

    He was only 2 points off of 1st place as well which is quite encouraging.

    2 saves, 26 accurate passes (81.3%) and 18 long balls (12 accurate) are more than decent stats I must say.

    38p highest bid at the time of writing is a cheap price to pay for a goalkeeper who continues to impress with each passing week.

     

    Lorient [3] - [2] Paris Saint Germain

     

    Neymar was on the goal trail in his side's 3 - 2 away defeat at Lorient. He scored 2 composed penalties, drawing the foul for the first one after being played through by a flick on from Mbappe.

    The attack really does flow through him in this side, as he showed with 115 touches, 55 accurate passes (78.6%), 3 key passes, 6 crosses, 4 long balls and 13 dribble attempts (5 successful).

    At £6.79 it's a tricky one to call. For one, he fits the matrix to a tee being the ball magnet that he is, picking it up from deep and driving forward with it to the opposition box in a similar way to players like Lionel Messi and Eden Hazard.

    But what puts me off is the fact that he's missed so many games for PSG. As of the 10th of January, he had only played in 52.43% of PSG games since joining the club which is insane. At the premium price point, I would also be looking at his media potential and with him publicly coming out and saying he wishes to stay at PSG, there isn't a very strong case for buying in my opinion. Don't get me wrong, he is a quality Football Index player but the likes of Messi (yes I know he's old) and Bruno Fernandes are winning dividends on a more consistent basis than Neymar.

     

    The absence of Marquinhos is telling.

     

    PSG with Marquinhos - 19 games, 16 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss
     

    PSG without Marquinhos - 10 games, 3 wins, 1 draw, 6 losses

     

    Kimpembe clearly looks uncomfortable marshalling the defence in his absence, although he's just come back from injury himself and is known to need a bit of time to get back into his groove.

    You would do well to pick him up on a bid of around £1.05 as Marquinhos is well away from his 1-year peak of £2.04. He is a world class defender who elevates PSG's level and he's scores very well on the matrix. His last 7 scores of 75, 186, 167, 154, 162, 174 and 181 are outstanding with no goals or assists in those games.

    Although arguably there are better defenders with regard to goal threat but he does pop up with important goals as we saw at the tail end of the last season. Marquinhos gets the buy seal of approval from me at that price.

     

    Yusuf Yazıcı [MID - Lille OSC]

     

    There is a player here no doubt about it. I've watched him steal a PB win off of Rodrigo de Paul (who I hold) on a gold day in the past when the latter registered a 288 on the 22nd of November.

    That night Yazici scored 356 points, albeit with 2 goals and an assist.

    What's so impressive is this guy doesn't often complete 90 minutes yet he still racks up the points. 190 points in his last outing here and subbed off at the 70th minute mark, albeit with a game winning goal. If he had played on, I'm quite sure he would have been very close to the top of the PB leader board.

    3 shot attempts, 37 touches, 13 accurate passes and 6 crosses is what he produced here.

    At a £1.88 buy price I would lean slightly towards buying as he's still quite young at 24 years old.

     

    Benjamin André [MID – Lille OSC]

     

    A player who I've held in the past is 30-year-old Benjamin Andre.

    With his highest bid currently 6p I am a bit surprised. Don't get me wrong he's not going to be winning PB regularly being a more defensive midfielder but he is capable of sneaking a win on a bronze or silver matchday at some point.

    His last 5 scores are 153, 118, 115, 112 and 125. His 3 most recent games with goal involvements saw him score a 192 against Nantes (goal - 1st March 2020), 206 against Bordeaux (goal - 26th October 2019) and a 205 against Angers (assist - 13th September 2019).

    It's a long shot as his last win came in 2019 but there's plenty of players that go a while without a win before showing up on everyone's radar again. Decent punt at that price.

     

    That's it for this week I'll be posting my next analysis after this weekend.

    And just as a reminder again I've got all this analysis and more available on my new website - https://academy.indexscholar.co.uk

    See you next week!



  • @Index_Scholar Comments on players of interest only: Mount is on my watchlist. Agree that if he adds more goals to his game, could be a great hold. Gross is in my watchlist also. Watched him on MOTD and was impressed. Definite bargain.
    Yazici: I hold and will be expecting him to be in around the top 6 performers if he misses out on pb.



  • @Londoner glad to hear someone confirming my thoughts on some of these players. Yazici scoring again yesterday going to have to add him to my port very soon


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