Matchday Analysis - 6th February

  • Back with some more match day analysis!

    For a detailed breakdown of Sunday's games, that will be made available from tomorrow at the Index Scholar Academy.

    Bayer Leverkusen [5] – [2] VfB Stuttgart

    Leon Bailey produced an impressive display in his side's 5- 2 win over Stuttgart with a well taken goal and an assist.
    He nearly scored after just 95 seconds, only to be denied by the glove of the opposition goalkeeper and the frame of the goal.

    Bailey assisted Leverkusen's 2nd with a perfectly weighted through ball for Demirbay who slotted home. He then scored his 5th goal of the season to put Leverkusen 3-1 up.

    Despite being positioned on the right-hand side, you could see Bailey cutting in from that wing and being involved in intricate pieces of play from the centre as well as the left.

    74 minutes played, 3 shots on goal (2 on target), 4 key passes and 4 crosses marked a very good display from the Jamaican here.

    Now he's just had a spike to £1.31 so I would let that settle down a bit. But he makes a decent case for portfolio inclusion nonetheless, with the ability to hit those peak scores evident on some of his notable past performances.


    Kerem Demirbay hit 245 PB points with 2 goals here, scoring the 1st after converting a rebound in acrobatic fashion after a shot from Moussa Diaby was saved by the opposition keeper.

    He nutmegged the goalkeeper for the 2nd with after being played through by Bailey.

    Despite the performance, I would be wary of investing in Demirbay as his playing time this season has been sporadic to say the least. Although he's well capable of producing big scores as he has a decent enough base, at £1.18 I wouldn't be investing right at this moment.


    Schalke 04 [0] – [3] RB Leipzig


    Christopher Nkunku's minutes are being managed quite a bit this season which is frustrating to say the least for those that hold him.

    He's a PB player through and through, and he showcased his ability once again today with a 218 score in 83 minutes with just the 1 assist.

    Leipzig lined up in a 3-1-4-2 formation with Nkunku playing as a second striker of sorts in this game. His stats were very good, with 2 shots, 4 dribble attempts (3 successful), 8 key passes and 5 crosses.

    Being on free kicks and left-hand-side corners also does Nkunku good. In this game his set piece delivery was impeccable, as he whipped in a great ball for Nordi Mukiele to get on the end of for Leipzig's 1st.

    He also had a good chance to make it 2-0 after being played in by Angelino, but placed his shot just wide of the far post
    It's just a shame that he hasn't been able to complete 90 minutes from the 8th of December last year.

    At the £1 mark and below however, he is a risk worth taking, as when he explodes with a 250+ score I have no doubt he will get a significant rise in price owing to the fact that he's still fairly young at 23 and plays for an attacking side under the stewardship of Nagelsmann.


    Marcel Sabitzer made the score comfortable at 2-0 after being played a diagonal ball across the face of goal by Angelino.

    Unlike Nkunku, Sabitzer is getting much more 90-minute games and having the captain's armband also suggests he's more likely to play a key role in games.

    His PB threat is not as great as Nkunku’s, but he shows glimpses here and there as evidenced by the 178 points with no goals or assists he recorded on the 2nd of January.

    At £1.05 I'd rather invest that money in his compatriot Nkunku or look to acquire him for 70p-80p on bids.


    Willi Orban made it 3-0 to the visitors and he's an example of how stacked Leipzig's defence is.

    Halstenberg, Upamecano, Klostermann, Mukiele and Orban all tussling for minutes in this side. They're all fairly good for PB so if you're looking for a defensive pick here, I'd opt for either Halstenberg or Upamecano, as the latter appears to be nailed on when compared with the others.


    Mats Hummels [DEF – Borussia Dortmund]


    Mats Hummels registered another very respectable PB score of 157 in a 2-1 away defeat at SC Freiburg.

    103 accurate passes (87.3%), 2 key passes, 9 long balls (6 accurate), 7/9 aerial duels won and 4 clearances here.

    His PB average in the last 7 games stands at an impressive 156.8 too.

    Even a 69p buy price for a 32-year-old would not put me off with the scores he's been delivering.

    He's a solid defensive option for any portfolio as he will almost surely win another match day or two this season barring injury or a calamitous collapse in form.


    Huesca [1] – [2] Real Madrid


    Raphael Varane delighted holders with a star man win in his sides 2-1 victory over Huesca.

    261 points with 2 goals was a delight for holders who acquired him at the 35p-40p mark a few weeks prior.

    There's no doubt he's under-priced, as he's at the prime stage of his career and plays for two of football's biggest teams in Real Madrid and France.

    He realistically should be around 90p-£1, so even now at 65p I still believe there is capital appreciation to be made.

    But I wouldn't be buying in on the back of a PB win as no doubt his price will fall back to the 40p-50p mark, which is when I'd be tempted to place the bet.


    Toni Kroos* showed why he's a PB juggernaut on the Football Index, registering a score of 230 with no goals or assists and a yellow card!

    118 touches, 95 accurate passes (96%), 6 key passes, 6 crosses and 12/13 accurate long balls

    It really would only have taken a single goal involvement from him to top midfielder and possibly star man here, and at £2.07 he still looks to be very good value with Champions League fixtures and Euro 2021 on the horizon.


    Sevilla [3] – [0] Getafe


    Joan Jordan will have turned a couple of trader's heads with his display in this 3-0 win against Getafe. He played a pivotal role in Sevilla's disallowed 1st goal by making a well timed run and crossing the ball in from the by line. However, Lucas Ocampos was adjudged to have handled the ball with his arm so it was chalked off.

    But that didn't deter Jordan as he delivered a sublime through ball over the top of the Getafe defence which Munir El Haddadi put past the keeper to make it 1-0.

    Joan Jordan would be an excellent hold if he was guaranteed 90 minutes for the majority of games, but unfortunately that's not the case.

    Today he managed to finish the game which makes such a difference for his stats and overall PB performance.

    126 touches, 105 accurate passes (90.5%), 2 shots, 3 crosses, 13 long balls and 4 key passes

    At a price of 65p (55p on bids) he is worth the outlay as he's a player who in my view should be trading around the £1 mark.


    Jules Kounde produced a mammoth score of 229 with no goals or assists.

    By numbers he made 94 accurate passes (94%), 1 key pass, 2 crosses, 3 long balls and 3 successful dribble attempts out of 3.

    Manchester City were rumoured to have made a move for him before they eventually brought in Dias and it's clear to see why.

    He's comfortable with the ball at his feet and finds it easy stepping out of the defensive strata with the ball.

    Some of his previous PB scores also make for good reading, with a 173 against Cadiz (no goal involvements) and a 133 against the tougher Real Sociedad (no goal involvements).

    At 99p I'd personally sit patiently and wait to see if he'll drop down in price just a little bit, but even so I like the look of him at £1 as he's got solid PB game and potential transfer links if he keeps this level up.


    Alejandro Gomez also caught my attention with his performance coming off the bench.

    He came on at 56 minutes and sealed the game on 87 minutes with a powerful left footed shot which took a big deflection on its way to the top corner of the net.

    He looks to have taken over Banega's role in this Sevilla side, and his 152 points with only 33 minutes on the pitch are a good indicator that he will be able to replicate the Argentinian's performances in this creative midfield position.

    At 32 years of age however, I'd err on the side of caution when it comes to investing here.

    94p is an okay price to acquire Gomez considering that he's down from his 1 year high of £1.67, but I'd be a bit more comfortable picking him up at around the 50p-60p mark that he was trading at a few weeks prior.


    Olympique Lyonnais [3] – [0] Strasbourg


    Memphis Depay stole the show as his Lyon side were victorious against Strasbourg.

    He played 72 minutes and came off with 2 goals and a PB score of 232 which was enough to win match day dividends on a gold day.

    For the 1st goal he capitalised on a loose ball from the Strasbourg midfield to slot past the keeper on a 1v1, whereas the 2nd was a magnificently curled free kick into the top corner, which brought him to 13 league goals for the season.
    Memphis has been relatively quiet on the PB front ever since links to Barcelona surfaced so it's good to see him get back to the PB scoring heights that we know he is capable of.

    His game by numbers included 4 shot attempts (all on target), 2/4 successful dribbles, 27 accurate passes (79.4%), 1 key pass and 2 crosses.

    At the £1.90 mark however I would steer clear due to the fact that his future at Lyon is still uncertain. This is because the Barcelona move fell through due to the Spanish side not having the necessary funds to complete the deal.

    His PB potential may take a hit if he were to join Barcelona and I wouldn't want to be left holding the short end of the stick with him.

    However, with the Euro's coming up in the summer and him being Holland's main man up front I believe there is possibility for him to hit the £2.50 price point.


    Leo Dubois performed once again as he delivered a 171 PB score without any goal contributions at the opposition end.
    55 passes (87.3%), 2 key passes, 5 crosses and 3/6 accurate long balls shows that he's able to get involved on both ends of the pitch to good effect.

    At the 80p mark however he's more or less reached his 1-year high and I'd not be buying in at this point with the current state of the overall market as it is.

    I'd be much more inclined to wait for a drop to the 50p-60p mark or try and acquire him via bids within that ballpark range.


    Nayef Aguerd [DEF – Stade Rennais]


    The Moroccan born 24-year-old only managed 124 points against Lorient but his past scores give holders reason to be encouraged.

    At the start of the year he delivered a score of 192 against Nantes with no goal involvement as well as a 168 against Lorient in the reverse fixture, again with no goals or assists in that game either.

    With age on his side at 24 and the fact that he plays in a team that likes to keep hold of the ball, he looks a decent pick up at 78p.

    You only need to look at the 312 score he managed with a goal against Stade Brestois to see that there's a good possibility that he can win on a gold day in the future.


    Wojciech Szczęsny [GK – Juventus]


    Szczęsny* is beginning to deliver on the PB front. He claimed top goalkeeper here with a PB score of 174.

    Some notable stats here include 3 saves, 42 accurate passes, and 10 long balls (4 accurate).

    I like him as a hold because Pirlo encourages the team to play out of the back and also due to the fact that they're not rock solid in defence and give away multiple chances in games, which allows Szczęsny the opportunity to make some saves as opposed to being barely tested in games like other top keepers.

    Juventus have undoubtedly been well short of their usual clean sheet tally by this stage of the season and it's only in the past 3 games that they've begun to shore up, with 3 shut outs in the last 3 now.

    Before this good spell, a Szczęsny holder would have to go all the way back to a 3-0 home win against Sampdoria on the 20th of September for the Polish international's last clean sheet.

    Even with the removal of clean sheet IPDs he looks a solid shout in the Goalkeeper category, as at the 40p mark he's not as expensive as the other options out there playing for top teams like Alisson, Ederson and Neuer.


    Bukayo Saka [MID – Arsenal]


    Arsenal are underperforming but one player who is carrying the London side from game to game is Saka. He's posted some notable scores in the last couple of games which are worth pointing out.

    174 in a 1-0 loss to Aston Villa, 201 with a goal and assist against Southampton, and 154 in a 0-0 with Crystal Palace.

    Now he has spiked recently and at £2.50 I wouldn't be taking my wallet out as I'm sure his price will dip again, but he is one to keep an eye on.

    A better entry point would be at the £1.50 - £1.70 mark in my opinion, but if he dropped to anywhere near the £1.02 mark that he was on the 22nd of December last year, I would be buying in swiftly.


    Dwight McNeil [MID – Burnley]


    Now Burnley are not a side renowned for playing swashbuckling football, which is why it's all the more impressive when Dwight McNeil continues to put up these decent scores from time to time.

    163 points against Brighton here with no goals or assists, 10 crosses, 4 long balls, 2 shots and 2 dribble attempts.

    He's a player that probably needs a move to a more attacking side in order to fulfil that potential, but on the flip side a move away to such a team could lead to less playing time.

    At 55p there's not much risk here as he's young, English and Burnley should be safe from relegation, as well as the fact that he could garner interest from a few clubs in the summer window. However, his contract is set to expire in 2024 so Burnley won't necessarily be in a desperate position to sell.

    And that marks the end of this weekend's analysis, so I'll see you next weekend!

  • Great read, thanks for all the effort, with regards to Sabitzer it is worth adding that he will take penalty's going forward.

  • @Fletch thanks mate Sabitzer being on pens certainly makes him a better hold

  • Thank you great read

  • @Index_Scholar this was interesting and echoes many of my thoughts, thanks for putting together

  • @FootballArgos no problem mate, glad you liked the analysis

  • @Index_Scholar great analysis, thank you

  • @NewUser469373 you're welcome mate!

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