How we value Marcus Rashford



  • Hi,

    I wanted to ask people about their opinions of Marcus Rashford at this price? To clarify, i've been a holder for about 6 months now and have cashed out and re-bought shares at different price points taking some significant losses as many of us have during the recent periods of downturn.

    Looking at him today, the highest bid sits at £2.31, and has fallen from the £8 range at which he sat this past summer. Despite the obvious shrinking of prices since this period, such a high valuation does imply some serious dividend return potential at the time. as a holder, I'm hoping him to be a future PB/MB hybrid and a legend in English football for his contributions to society off the pitch and local talisman at Manchester United.

    Thinking a bit more realistically about his depreciation in value, his relatively low PB return (mainly due to on and off form) and lack of big MB days are what seems to be causing his sustained dips in price. Bruno Fernandes taking the limelight hurts his MB too. Bruno takes penalties too, which affects how much PB is available to Marcus. This makes me think Marcus might not be a very strong short-term bet.

    It's worth looking at his dividend return too, £1.04 in the last 12 months. If the dividend payouts stay roughly the same, and with good PB and MB opportunities around the Euros, and potential of charity work during periods of no-football.. optimistically you could forecast 100% return on investment at £2.31 in two-three years.

    This kind of return is pretty strong for a young and proven dividend earner on the index. Interesting case this player is - I'm very curious to hear other people's thoughts!

    Hope yous don't mind a bit of opinion bias here- don't invest without doing your own research.



  • I thought he was great value and bought in at £3.40. Wish I’d waited longer before buying!

    In theory, every thing you’d say is true and he should comfortably deliver his price in dividends in 2-3 years, but you have to factor in the much greater risks we’re now all facing from FI.

    A dividend reduction could take place in June, FI can mint shares at any price point and of course literally anything about the Index can change with 30 days notice. These are big risks to add to the usual stuff like career ending injury, surprise move to China/MLS, death, prison, etc.

    Given the above risks, I’d be looking for a player (Rashford or anyone else) to deliver their price in dividends in just 18 months now before buying (whereas previously I was happy with a 3-year return).

    In truth I wouldn’t top up on him now unless he drops to £1.60 or so, maybe after he picks up a minor injury.



  • You're right about the uncertainty facing FI. I have a feeling we'll see more stability in the future and improved sentiment. I don't foresee FI letting the product slip to a point where divs have to be lowered, despite what I know many others believe. I've said it before, but here it goes again - for it to get much worse seems unlikely.

    I'm very curious what kind of players you're looking into with 18 month div returns in mind? The obvious ones I can think of are much older players with whom the risk of career ending injuries, moves to asia/us, 'losing your legs', these kinds of things make the longer 24-36 month investments of younger players feel a lot safer, given the potential resale value.



  • @NewUser611084

    I laid some bids on him last week but cancelled them when I realised he was still going to keep dropping.

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    To give context here, I rarely opt for a player over the £1 barrier and more often than not buy at the 10p-50p price, because in my experience, that's where you can 5x your money, so for me to bid on Rashford, that's a sign of how much of a good buy I think he is.

    It's pay day week, so I strongly suspect that if you bought Rashford today for £2.20, there'll possibly be a point in time over the next week or two (or month or two at least) where you can sell him for £3.50-£4 and by the Euro's I'd expect him to be higher.

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  • @NewUser611084
    his price seems more reasonable than most in the top 100 but still a risk. one worry would be fernandes winning media yesterday as if i was a rashford holder the media nonsense would be a big part of my reason for holding. rashford got the ball rolling yesterday and was bright yet the portugese still nicked it off him for scoring a penalty. but as i said the whole media thing is garbage.



  • He’s terrible at pb and Witt Bruno doesn’t win mb either



  • His good value IMO, I dobt hold I prefer cheaper players



  • @NewUser611084

    Probably only Messi who is likely to deliver his current price in dividends in the next 18 months, but I wouldn’t top up on him either due to age and risk of a MLS move.

    I think my point is that it’s better to wait for the further falls in prices over the next 3 months before buying anyone, including Rashford.

    Even if the market picks up over the coming weeks, any gains are likely to be short lived and followed by falls, because there is still a significant number of people who FI have p*ssed off and who want out, but can’t / won’t currently sell.

    Plus with FI minting new futures at any price, there is even more supply than demand now, which guarantees downward pressure on prices at some point.



  • @ocs123 said in How we value Marcus Rashford:

    @NewUser611084

    Probably only Messi who is likely to deliver his current price in dividends in the next 18 months, but I wouldn’t top up on him either due to age and risk of a MLS move.

    I think my point is that it’s better to wait for the further falls in prices over the next 3 months before buying anyone, including Rashford.

    Even if the market picks up over the coming weeks, any gains are likely to be short lived and followed by falls, because there is still a significant number of people who FI have p*ssed off and who want out, but can’t / won’t currently sell.

    Plus with FI minting new futures at any price, there is even more supply than demand now, which guarantees downward pressure on prices at some point.

    The guy that absolutely used to rip into me every time I made posts like this 2 months ago.



  • I think Rashford is good value at the moment, given his age and dividend returns over the last 12 months I'd value at around £4.

    However, even with that I'm not buying at the moment as the market is too uncertain. I very much doubt I'll be putting anything in until after the next PB matrix and dividend review as there is too much risk of change.



  • @GeoffS People seem to think that may happen in June, wait and see i guess



  • @Rocket-Ronnie said in How we value Marcus Rashford:

    He’s terrible at pb and Witt Bruno doesn’t win mb either

    Yeah, I’m not sure the numbers back you up here Rocket 😉 11th most divs on the Index last year with £1.15. He’s not amazing at PB, won’t lie, but with 26p of PB he’s still better than a lot of so called “PB players”. And 89p of MB says it all- the media love writing stories about him.



  • @NewUser611084 have to say, I’m with Dan on this one. He’s a very good deal at the moment. Should comfortably return his current buy price in 18-24 months, especially with divs doubled.


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