Transfer spec players approach
As this is my first transfer window since I joined the Index I was wondering if anyone could share their approach on how they deal with players who are likely to be transferred this window or the next. I'll use two examples of players I hold, explaining my thoughts then maybe those guys with more experience could offer their thoughts on how they'd play them going forwards...
Adrien Rabiot - seems to be going to Barca from what I've read recently. He's risen a decent amount over the past few weeks because of his transfer speculation but I assume he'll drop a bit after his deal is complete? Or maybe he won't depending on which team he ends up at? I don't know whether I should sell him, then buy him back after he drops (as I think he could turn into one of Europe's top midfielders) or just keep hold of him...
Ruben Neves - signed a new deal at Wolves so looks like he's not going anywhere this summer, but surely he'll be on the move to a top team sooner rather than later (unless Wolves become a top team!) Unsure of how he'll score PB wise this season so potentially his price could drop in the coming months, but then pick up again approaching the next transfer window.
I'm just interested to see what other peoples thoughts are on such players and what they do with them regards selling/holding.
Two videos on how I trade transfers and what sources I use. Hope they help
First point - beware of Xfer Speculation in the silly season, 99% of traders have been burnt by rumours which fail to materialise. (and obviously many have made a bomb out of it too)
With regards to Rabiot, yes you're right many people tend to cash in their profits once a deal is imminent or just gone through and to some extent you've answered your own question really. He's "probably" been invested in for the Barca and Spurs links already (Spurs aren't Barca but they are a top EPL side so it's give and take on that front)... so has he peaked for the time being? possibly, will he drop? if he moves to an inferior team - most definitely or completes a move to B or S - maybe a negligible amount. So you might think yeah sell and buy back BUT don't forget you have to beat the commission and spread before it becomes worthwhile. Just a few things to keep in mind.
Neves, in my opinion and I could be wrong is that his PB baseline "should" be excellent but we don't know how well Wolves will do until we get going which is pivotal to win bonus points and the amount of possession they'll generally get. If he sets the Prem alight you could see a big move as early as January.
I hold Neves and I'm not interesting in selling at the moment. I would also quite happily buy Rabiot too at his current price but there's so many players that are screaming buy me he's not quite at the top of my shopping list.
Having watched him first hand last season, I can confirm that Ruben Neves is a future superstar, he will be playing for a top 6 side within the next 3 years, and I think even the most ambitious of Wolves fans are resigned to the fact that he will be leaving us in the next few years, unless we can really kick on in terms of investment, easier said than done, as spending money is one thing, spending it wisely is a different thing altogether
I currently don't hold any Neves as I bought at IPO and sold for a tidy profit at the end of next season
At this point in time, I see his current price as a big risk as we do not know how his style of play will translate into PB, but long term I think his price will be a lot higher than it is now, it just may drop in the short term before it goes up