Are young players overpriced?



  • I was wondering whether the recent rises in up and coming youngsters were justified so I has a look at the players who were tipped as world beaters three years ago (so would now be approaching the end of their three year hold period). these were the Guardians picks for best young players in the World back in 2015. Prices are in brackets, where no price is shown the player has not yet had an IPO:

    Dayot Upamecano (£1.64)
    Jeff Reine-Adelaide (76p)
    Felix Passlack (59p)
    Manuel Locatelli (£1.01)
    Han Kwang-Song (67p)
    Lee Seung-Woo (56p)
    Christian Pulisic (£2.68)
    Federico Valverde (85p)
    Timothy Fosu-Mensah (89p)
    Kaan Kairinen
    Bilal Boutobba
    Luca Fernández
    Fabian Benko
    Dimitris Limnios
    Reza Shekari
    Haviv Ohayon
    Manuel Nicoletti
    Ritsu Doan
    Sidiki Maiga
    Pablo López
    Ulises Torres
    Hachim Mastour
    Javairo Dilrosun
    Justin Bijlow
    Martin Odegaard
    Rafik Zekhnini
    Krystian Bielik
    Pedro Pereira
    Ianis Hagi
    Artem Galadzhan
    Zehrudin Mehmedovic
    Jan Mlakar
    Liam Jordan
    José Luis 'Kuki' Salazar
    José María Amo
    Dani Olmo
    Zackarias Faour
    Ibrahim Demirbag

    As you can see not many would have been worth the investment so I'm not sure about the wisdom of buying youngsters in bulk.





  • Its obviously nonsense. Kids are being priced above the players that they may (if everything goes to plan) become.

    The best example is on the cheap player thread where a goalie who (again if everything goes swimmingly) become the next loris is considered a bargain at 69p when the real loris in the prome of his career costs 60p. Wonder whats next ? The new james millner a snip at £2.78 ?

    Its how bubbles work .... people see kids rising in value so want to get the next one before they rise. Value for money goes out the window. With stuff like this is all about timing ... bit jealous I didnt really get on board.

    Ironically given they are in theory long term holds, the best way to trade them is short-term flips.



  • @PB-man I think what this post highlights the most is:

    The Guardian are not very good tipsters for the future stars of football. None of the current 20/21yo's who are currently lighting up the game are on the list, which just strikes me as poor research/opinion on their part?



  • @mike778 Yep agreed. You only have to look at some of the players they are priced above to see they are overvalued. Young players yet to play for the first team priced over proven top class performers (Tahith Chong above Saul Niguez is madness).

    How much would Freddy Adu have been on the index? Robinho probably would have above £7 before his move to Real (better stats in Brazil than Vinicius, Rodrygo etc)

    It is so hard to predict who will break through and when that it is a fool's game buying up players for more than they will be worth even if they fulfill their potential.



  • Let's face it, everybody wants to find that 1 in a million player they can buy for sub £1 that'll be worth £10+ one day...



  • @TheSleepingGiant All it shows is how unpredictable young players are. They grow at different rates and only one (if any) can be the next Neymar. Most will top out below £1.50 once the hype dies down.



  • Chong, ridiculous price, Jose already said last week ‘ clear physical limitations’.

    Who won’t play one game all season. If he was 70 or 80p then yeah keep him for 2 years but he is double that, dead money for a long time.



  • @PB-man Yep, every new young player who shows talent will be labelled the next "Neymar" or "Messi" or "Ronaldo". Of course only a handful will make it to the very top, but that doesn't mean there isn't money to be made from the ones that don't make it.

    If I buy "the next Ronaldo" for 75p and sell him for 150p when I realise he is going to be "the next Pato" then that is still great business as long as your judgement and timing is good?

    By your username and recent posts it sounds like you are more focused on income investing. Maybe you are missing out?



  • I've just been listening to Talksport re Richarlison saying £50m is madness but I suppose it's comparative within the Premier League to justify that amount being spent?

    And it's the same on FI???

    I notice 'IF' a player is young and plays for Man City, United, Arsenal, Barca Real Madrid, Dortmund, PSG to name a few then they will come at a premium which is lead thanks to the over hyping of these players in the media.... Because 'everybody' wants a piece of that player it simply drives up price... This is also why Premier League players are priced higher than those of other countries on FI... Because more people know about the EPL and by investing more of their money it drives up their prices...

    I've always tried to stay away from paying over the odds for players and try and base my purchases on value for money... Does that player bring in dividends? Does that player have growth in value? Are they undervalued?

    Take someone like Dayot Upamecano who at 1.64 offers a higher risk than someone like Wallace at Lazio who is 0.55... Both have attracted EPL clubs recently.... both under 23... both uncapped but predicted to break into national teams soon and both playing regular football for their teams both in a PB league and playing in the Europa League next season? If we consider a CB's ceiling to be at say 2.50-2.70 I would see more value in Wallace simply because he looks much more undervalued with more room for growth and less risk in fall price.

    So give me bargain basement any day of the week!



  • @TheSleepingGiant said in Are young players overpriced?:

    @PB-man Yep, every new young player who shows talent will be labelled the next "Neymar" or "Messi" or "Ronaldo". Of course only a handful will make it to the very top, but that doesn't mean there isn't money to be made from the ones that don't make it.

    If I buy "the next Ronaldo" for 75p and sell him for 150p when I realise he is going to be "the next Pato" then that is still great business as long as your judgement and timing is good?

    By your username and recent posts it sounds like you are more focused on income investing. Maybe you are missing out?

    Exactly .... I have always said its good trading to buy something worth 50p for a quid if someone will buy it off you for 1.50.

    All about timing and not being left "holding the baby" when others have taken their profits.

    Of the numerous players that dont make it as a viable FI asset, be interesting to see what happens to them and how patient people are.

    Ultimately its supply v demand. Everyone wants to play the find the youngster game as its fun so the prices are always going to be over inflated. The same way united prices are worse in the bookies because they have more fans who will bet on them regardless of whether odds are fair.



  • @dannypea Wallace is nowhere near the level of Upamecano. Upa is four years younger and has already returned dividends whilst Wallace has not even been a regular at Lazio (only 12 league starts last season).



  • This all depends where you think they are going to be in the near future and if you believe the hype coz I base my portfolio on where think players will end up by the age of 24 apart from 2 all my player are born after 95



  • @mike778 @TheSleepingGiant I don't disagree. Certainly you can make money off bubbles but for every winner there will be a loser. It's pretty easy to be a winner at the moment since the market is in it's infancy and so inefficient. As the index grows though it will be much harder to pump and dump players like that (especially after taking off spread and comission).

    Investing in youngsters is a great strategy as long as you pick ones that actually have a decent chance of hitting the big time. Leon Bailey, TAA, Upamecano etc are all regular starters, return dividends and are the actual next big things whereas a reserve team player at Lyon has a long way to go.



  • I buy youngsters and I'm planning on holding them for up to 3 years, you may say it's dead stock but all these players are increasing in value and if they didn't or they drop I'll just hold until they do rise as they will do I have no doubt about it.

    It doesn't take a scientist to work out who the gems will be and in time they will be worth a lot more than they are now, just be patient and watch them rise :)



  • @Greg Which youngsters are you holding? If they are starting for a team in a PB league then there's not much risk. I hold many of these and will probably hold for three years also.

    I'm referring to people pumping up the likes of Chong, random Lyon/Napoli youngsters etc who have no pedigree yet and are as likely to fail as they are to succeed (see the list of most promising youngsters back in 2015 for what you can realistically expect from these players) many of whom will end up essentially worthless in index terms after three years.



  • As an example the one of the best young German talents in years at age 18 was Donis Advijaj. The lad broke goalscoring records at youth level and looked lively in friendlies and made the bench for Champions League fixtures. He had far superior stats compared to the likes of Otto and Chong.

    Three years later and you can pick Donis up for 52p a share.



  • @PB-man Chong I definitely hold and I'm happy to wait, he will rocket I'm sure of it and will be a world beater, just a matter of when :)



  • @Greg Chong is a talent but he has already had a serious cruciate injury (a bad long-term sign) and has to break into the team ahead of Anthony Martial, Marcus Rashford, Alexis etc. It is also naive to think United won't sign more attackers for big money (Willian).

    Chong is United's young player of the year too. Let's look at the superstars that have won that award in the last 10 years:

    2007–08 Danny Welbeck
    2008–09 Federico Macheda
    2009–10 Will Keane
    2010–11 Ryan Tunnicliffe
    2011–12 Mats Møller Dæhli
    2012–13 Ben Pearson
    2013–14 James Wilson
    2014–15 Axel Tuanzebe
    2015–16 Marcus Rashford
    2016–17 Angel Gomes
    2017–18 Tahith Chong

    Welbeck (98p) is the only index relevant player in the last 10 years.



  • @PB-man Oh and Rashford of course but he was already starting in the first team


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