Growth Forecast For Your Portfolio
OK, so I joined at the end of April this year, so only 3 months but the growth so far has outweighed my expectations. Nothing spectacular compared to others here, but currently +21% which I didn't think was possible in the beginning.
Looking ahead, what does everyone think is a realistic forecast for portfolio value growth over the next few years.
Currently, I'm thinking the platform is growing massively but can't continue forever, so something like the below. Only a quick guess, but curious to see what others think.
Year 1: 30 - 35% growth (300 - 350k users)
Year 2: 30 - 35% growth (600 - 700k users)
Year 3: 25-30% growth (800 - 900k users)
Year 4: 15 - 20% growth (1m users)
Year 5: 5 - 10% growth(1.1m users)
Year 6+ - 3 - 8% growth (1.2m users)
Personally, I can see the platform levelling out at about 1 - 1.2m users but this is purely a guess. The advertising will help massively with the next year or two, but what then? Will FI ever truly replace betting with the large returns it promises?
Curious to hear your thoughts.
Personally I don’t think you can forecast 6 years ahead. Way too many variables for that. In the short term I see a growth rate faster than we have seen in the first 2.5years, that will then plateau in a couple of years which would mean that profits would be set to decrease - that would then lead to an increase in dividends which should again increase profits and new users. I’m addition hopefully new markets would keep getting added.
@metropolis i dont think we will be anywhere near 300k users by end of the year we have "150k" users now. But you just need to cross reference users vs dividends paid and average time/portfolio people have to see its likely closer to 20k users atm
The biggest problem has to be players already very high price with small dividends and growth on offer
It’s noy like sports gambling where the playing is already at zero and you either win or lose.
This game favours traders who have got in early.
So how do you attract new players to this.....
No one will ever get Neymar cheap again for example....
@NewUser60527 I think they attract new users by increasing dividends so they feel like it is something worth joining.
They could also shift the purchasing model to buy decimal amounts in a player similar to cryptocurrency. E.g you can buy 0.1 shares in Neymar for around £1.30
"No one will ever get Neymar cheap again for example...."
A lot of the attraction of new users will be trying to buy into the next Neymar. It is no secret about the huge capital appreciation to be made on young players. These traders probably have no interest in buying the top end highly priced players.
Yeh the great thing about this game is it’s never too late. Players will age and retire; new blood will come through. A new trader who heavily invests in the star of the future will be massively rewarded, even if they feel priced out of the Neymar / Messi / Ronaldos of this world.
FI might also do a share split as well at a later date (not sure if that’s been done before)