Am I correct in saying that when today's promoted players hit the market that the "allow price movement" switch\button when buying futures becomes incredibly important?
I'm guessing the buy price rises so rapidly that it's impossible to see the price and confirm it because it changes so quickly? therefore you have to allow price movement and could potentially pay a lot more for players than you initially intend to?
I'm also theorizing that it's going to be impossible to buy more than 100 shares at a bargain price as you'll have missed the gun?
I've been looking forward to getting involved in this for a couple of weeks so would like to know as much as possible prior to 1pm.
Yeah its a bit of a gamble and you can end up paying way too much for a player. Some people seem to consistently get low prices though I'm not sure how they do it. Nowadays I just estimate what I think the fair value is and wait for the initial drop, if they are below my estimation I will buy.
What sort of time period do you get to make your decisions? is it split second?
@NewUser59170 do you use a browser on your laptop or mobile to buy the new players when they launch?
@NewUser87224 it's a split-second. It's very difficult to buy players cheaply, as their price zooms up really quickly. There's some discussions in other threads below about this. If you're successful please let me know how!
@pwp23 okay I will do bud. Don't suppose you know which thread it's under cos I've read a few but can't any on that subject.??
@NewUser87224 These two are worth a read - "New Players futures introduced at 25p" & "Buying promoted squad players on a friday".
Jordi Alba up to £1.30 almost instantly is a pretty typical experience.
Nowadays I just estimate what I think the fair value
- how do you come up with a fair value?
@NewUser87483 Good question. I guess its fairly subjective but based on:
- Player popularity i.e. how well they are likely to do in MB (most promoted players now have no chance of winning MB so this becomes irrelevant)
- Expected player performance i.e. how well they are likely to do in PB (look at reputable player statistics websites)
- Player age (good, young players tend to have a bit of a premium as they are likely to improve)
- Player club (difficult to win PB at a poor club, on the flip-side, they are more likely to want a transfer and be in the news)
- Knowledge of how the market works (this bit you can only really pick up from experience)
Combine all those and I come up with a fair market value, relative to current players in the market and expected % ROI from dividends.
@NewUser59170 yeah I think "value" is a subjective matter - your own ability to forecast returns - but it boils down to "opportunity to make a return" more than anything. Either through capital growth or dividends.
There's a reason why a player is £2 and not £5. He's just less likely to earn any dividends in the forseeable future. Whereas players like Sanchez, Lukaku, Messi etc carry a premium due to their ability to constantly generate a return via dividends. So if a player is £2.97 (Morata?) it's because he's just not a dividend generator - maybe the one offs - but not yet considered a consistent dividend generator.
@NewUser87483 In relation to MB but with PB I have to completely disagree with you - look at some of the PB winners in the past 2 weeks, anything from £1 players to £6/£7 players!!
@El-Jefe agree. Hard to tell right now, but those at the lower end of that price probably won't "constantly" win you dividends. That was my point.
I'm not interested in one offs here and there. I'd invest in a player who will have the best chance of wining me dividends 10 times over the next 20 weeks. Maybe even 15.
And if that meant buying £6 players then so be it - as long as the return over the season is as high as it can be. Spreads and commissions are a killer too.