Help needed for a newbie - What makes a player valuable



  • Hi,

    I'm a newbie here and feel like I'm not 100% understanding how the concept works. Could do with some clarification if anyone is willing to help?

    I understand why a player (eg. Pogba) who is more likely to win Performance and Media buzz will be more in demand than someone who isn't, and therefore why more people will buy shares in them, and therfore why their value will go up. Simple and understood.

    But how does it work with players who are unlikely to win these awards?

    Take Harry Winks as an example. I want to buy shares in him because I think he is going to have a great season this season. He's been out injured so lots of people have forgotten that at the start of last season he was putting in MOM performances against Real Madrid in the Champions Leauge and considered one of the 'wonderkids' in English/World football. However, on Football Index he is unlikely to win the Performance Buzz award for midfielders as he's not a goalscorer and doesn't get loads of assists. Similiarly, he's unlikely to win the Media Buzz award too much over a midfielder like eg. Pogba because Winks is one of those essential midfielders who keeps a team ticking but is rarely in the highlight reel.

    So then should I buy shares in him? Even though I think his value in real football is going to increase, will it on Football Index if he is never going to win the MB or PB? Why would people buy shares in a young player who is never really going to win them MB or PB dividends? Some people may buy shares in him now thinking that he will be the 'next big thing' but I see a low ceiling as soon as people realise he won't win these dividends, so for me he doesn't seem a good buy which seems wrong given that in a year's time he may be considered one of the better PL midfielders.

    Am I missing something here? Is it only the reward of Dividends that will make people buy shares in a player or does a player's Footnall Index value also increase just by an increased reputation/value in the real football world? What are the reasons behind people buying shares in a player? Are goalscoring/assist making players the only players worth investing in?

    (I have used Harry Winks as an example here, but the same could be said of someone like Scott McTominay)

    Thanks



  • I brought some Winks at but he start of the season, he could be a starter for England and Spurs for years to come, on who scored.com his passing accuracy is around 90% and he also a decent amount of passes per game both of which are essential for PB so he is up there for that.

    He is still very young and can only get better, if he adds a few goals and is in the team every week I dont see why he wont be in the £4 bracket eventually.



  • So the basis of Football Index is that you want to buy shares in a player who is most likely to win PB and MB dividends? That’s the sole reason why people buy shares in a player and the sole reason why player values will decrease or increase?

    Just trying to get my head around the basics of how this works.

    So if there’s a young player out there who you think could go on to be superstar, but is unlikely to win PB or MB because they don’t score many goals (and goals are worth 40 points which is a large weight of the PB score), then they’re not really worth investing in? Is that right?



  • @NewUser161744
    Player values are ‘meant’ to be based on dividend potential. Some people but for now, some people but for down the line (take rodrygo for example. Signed by Madrid but is 17, doesn’t play in an eligible league and is nearly £3!). So people thinking/hoping they’ll come good and be the next ‘big thing’. However, the reality is that, especially right now, people are buying players who are good players, regardless of the fact they don’t win dividends. So many players who are £3+, £4+, £5* etc who have never won a dividend. Maybe there’s a hope they will eventually and maybe there’s a hope others will rise anyway, enabling you to flip. Sometimes it makes no sense and even now I struggle to understand the market at times. Other times it helps you find a bargain that may be overlooked.
    But yes, in general, it’s potential dividends which drives price. But that doesn’t mean money can’t be made elsewhere. Good luck 🙌



  • @FranklynMary thanks for your reply! That makes sense in terms of how it works.

    It just seems a shame that performance buzz ratings are so skewed towards rewarding those players who score goals more than those who might still play really well but don’t score.

    Do you find that players such as this (eg. Kante) win PB enough to make it worth investing? Or is it more like Fantasy football where your most valuable players arent those who are necessarily the best at what they do, but those that are more likely to score and assist?



  • @NewUser161744 Seems like you've grasped the concept pretty well. In theory the only thing that gives the futures any value is dividend potential, but in reality people do buy players who are unlikely to regularly/ever win dividends. Take a close look at the scoring matrix though as assists are probably undervalued compared to goals, crosses, simple passes etc. And watch the market for a while to see who rises and falls and try to understand why. You can't change how the market works, all you can do is go with it. But if you learn to do that, there's a good chance you'll make money!



  • Every future is a bet that a player will win dividends so technically a player unlikely to win dividends is pretty much worthless.

    There's a few things to bear in mind though

    1. For young players, people buy in the hope they will become dividend relevant in the future.
    2. There's a case of people expect players to rise (they might have a chance of a 5p dividend) which is a self-fulfilling prophecy and they rise disproportionatily.
    3. Some people don't understand dividends so buy players because they are good in real life - this overlaps with 2 a bit.

    The best example was someone like Pope who rose significantly when he was called up to the England squad - think he rose about 40p. As England's number three keeper, the chance of him generating 40p in dividends was non-existant (he could have maybe picked up a 5p media at best) but people thought he would rise by making the squad so they bought him which in essence created the rise - people saw that and jumped on. If you get on these trends early then its great. Its the whole principle of nothing wrong with paying £1 for a player who in reality is worth 30p if you can sell it for £2.



  • @NewUser161744 said in Help needed for a newbie - What makes a player valuable:

    @FranklynMary thanks for your reply! That makes sense in terms of how it works.

    It just seems a shame that performance buzz ratings are so skewed towards rewarding those players who score goals more than those who might still play really well but don’t score.

    Do you find that players such as this (eg. Kante) win PB enough to make it worth investing? Or is it more like Fantasy football where your most valuable players arent those who are necessarily the best at what they do, but those that are more likely to score and assist?

    I recommend you get signed up with Index gain which is free and you can see exactly what dividends a player has won.
    Noir does comprehensive stats for a quid which will be even better (sure he will be on to promote it) and gives us stacks of data but as a starter get on Index Gain.

    To answer your question, since August Kante has won 22p media and 14p performance which is actually a pretty good return for his price. Although performance stats are a bit skewed as early on there was less competition.



  • Things change in football all the time though, past stats aren’t the answer always.

    For example Coutinho MB will look impressive but that’s all down to his move to Barcelona which won’t happen again so in reality he wont win what his stats say or its pretty unlikely.

    You need to look for trends and get on them in real time.....

    Best example is Pogba has gone up nearly £2 in a month or so because of the on issue with Jose.


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