KDB and top player injuries



  • I can't understand why KDB lost so much value yesterday.

    Getting injuries self-evidently means a player can't get PB. As such, I can see why PB beasts that stand very little chance of getting MB (e.g. Memphis Depay) would lose a lot of value when they get injured.

    However, many top players in the PL get the majority of their dividends from MB, given how much more MB is concentrated in a few players than PB. And an injury to a top player often seems to significantly increase their MB over the period they are injured. There's the initial news, the testing, the further confirmation of the seriousness of their injuries, the endless photos of them in casts/in hospital/on exercise bikes grinning, the updates on their return, their actual return, etc.

    So is it irrational that, for example, KDB's price dived yesterday? Or have I got the above wildly wrong?

    To be clear, I only have a tiny investment - £50 deposited - in FootballIndex. I only stand to gain pennies if KDB does increase. But seems to me a strategy near certain to win out is to wait for a youngish top player to get injured, buy when they're irrationally reduced, and watch the dividends/capital gains roll in.



  • @NewUser149634 said in KDB and top player injuries:

    And an injury to a top player often seems to significantly increase their MB over the period they are injured

    Are you sure about this? Even if the player is out for a couple of months?



  • There's a few other things to bear in mind:

    1. He was due to have a scan today - not sure if the results of it are in but you never know with knee injuries. There was a rumour AOC would be back for start of season then people thought November. There's a better safe than sorry argument.
    2. For most people his sell price was still pretty good. I bought him not that long ago for not that much over £4, at the time I wouldn't have thought he was worth £5 and if he had a chance to market sell for that then it'd be a big win.
    3. A lot were anticipating a bigger drop so they would be thinking they could sell for £5-£5.20 and maybe buy back about £4.50
    4. Opportunity cost - when the index is booming, you don't really want to be sitting on an inactive player.

    I sold for £5.05 mainly for the first couple of reasons. I wasn't going to IS so would have held if I couldn't market sell him. No regrets, made some money on him and move on - maybe rebuy if his injury is worse and he drops again.



  • I wouldnt say thats my “tactic” but iv jumped into a fair few players coming back from injury at a low price and made some alright money on them... i normally leave them till within a month of starting training!!
    Each to their own, make money any way u can i say.



  • Yes a PB player would drop more, but traders should be aware that KDB is / was essentially just a PB player, yesterday was his first MB going back to before Jan 1st 2017!!!! (I don't have records before that)

    Unfortunately several papers don't write ''De Bruyne'' but ''de Bruyne'', that little capital letter used to stop FI picking it up and as a result he's been an awful MB hold. I didn't check yesterday but this is the first time I've noticed 'de Bruyne' scoring points.

    Also worth bearing in mind that when City cruise a game KDB is often the first pulled off and as a result his PB returns are not what they should be, consider that during the WC he picked up 20p PB for Belgium and all last season for Man City he picked up 40p and 20p of that was pre-massive IPO expansion.

    The biggest thing going for him is that all new users think that as KDB is one of the best midfielders in the world he must be on FI and that keeps his price at a level that is not in line with his returns.

    But I do hope for all holding that now the ''De'' / ''de'' situation seems to be solved he will start to return the MB his quality merits.



  • @AT10 said in KDB and top player injuries:

    Yes a PB player would drop more, but traders should be aware that KDB is / was essentially just a PB player, yesterday was his first MB going back to before Jan 1st 2017!!!! (I don't have records before that)

    Unfortunately several papers don't write ''De Bruyne'' but ''de Bruyne'', that little capital letter used to stop FI picking it up and as a result he's been an awful MB hold. I didn't check yesterday but this is the first time I've noticed 'de Bruyne' scoring points.

    Also worth bearing in mind that when City cruise a game KDB is often the first pulled off and as a result his PB returns are not what they should be, consider that during the WC he picked up 20p PB for Belgium and all last season for Man City he picked up 40p and 20p of that was pre-massive IPO expansion.

    The biggest thing going for him is that all new users think that as KDB is one of the best midfielders in the world he must be on FI and that keeps his price at a level that is not in line with his returns.

    But I do hope for all holding that now the ''De'' / ''de'' situation seems to be solved he will start to return the MB his quality merits.

    Really good analysis. It will be very interesting to see whether the new user base gravitate towards EPL stars.



  • @KingZ

    I am not sure about this. Hence posing it as a question.

    For KDB it seems to be true, as noted above he isn't somebody who picks up MB normally. We are yet to see how much MB he will pick up. That said, as also helpfully pointed out, the "de Bruyne" "De Bruyne" may now be sorted.

    I noticed that both Neymar and Salah got a lot of MB when injured, but that doesn't make it a sure thing, I guess.



  • @mike778

    Injury uncertainty is a good point. AOC won't be back until the 2019/20 season now, after all.

    Opportunity cost is also a good point. That said, I'm not the most engaged trader, and I try to keep my level of effort to a minimum (focusing only on top players) so I probably wouldn't be getting higher returns elsewhere. I accept that that is possible with a lot more research than I put in.



  • @AT10

    Truth is I'm aware his dividend returns normally are very poor. My argument rests entirely on the "selling to stupid people" strategy - that he will rise just because he's a world class player, rather than because he's a world class FI player.

    But I hope you're right about the "de Bruyne" issue.

    Thanks for your responses everybody! Really interesting reading!



  • @AT10 said in KDB and top player injuries:

    Yes a PB player would drop more, but traders should be aware that KDB is / was essentially just a PB player, yesterday was his first MB going back to before Jan 1st 2017!!!! (I don't have records before that)

    Unfortunately several papers don't write ''De Bruyne'' but ''de Bruyne'', that little capital letter used to stop FI picking it up and as a result he's been an awful MB hold. I didn't check yesterday but this is the first time I've noticed 'de Bruyne' scoring points.

    Also worth bearing in mind that when City cruise a game KDB is often the first pulled off and as a result his PB returns are not what they should be, consider that during the WC he picked up 20p PB for Belgium and all last season for Man City he picked up 40p and 20p of that was pre-massive IPO expansion.

    The biggest thing going for him is that all new users think that as KDB is one of the best midfielders in the world he must be on FI and that keeps his price at a level that is not in line with his returns.

    But I do hope for all holding that now the ''De'' / ''de'' situation seems to be solved he will start to return the MB his quality merits.

    Good post



  • @AT10 where do you get your MB/PB records from if you don't mind me asking. I'm quite new and trying to figure it all out!



  • @9stevo Started in June 17, went back through FI Twitter feed to get all MB winners from Jan 1st 17 until I joined, have kept all PB winners in excel since day one and have kept track of scores 150+ since Jan 1st.

    If I was new and investing seriously I'd sign up for the data service provided by @Noirx4 for £1 a month. You'll get that cost back 10 times over.

    If anyone wants any info on a particular player please feel free to ask and I'll share what I have but I don't have the analysis provided by the paid service guys.


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