Neymar



  • He’s been dropping in price a lot the last few days. Is it worth bailing out now or do people reckon his value will go back up?

    Hopefully gets a few more media transfer links as we near the end of the European transfer window which might bump his price back up?



  • sell sell sellllllllllllllllllllllllll!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (i dont even hold)



  • I bailed just as the growth stopped, i think his world cup performance (or lack of) and his general demeaner has completely turned off media attention add to that the rumours of him bullying Mbappe cos he feels threatened by him overshadowing him i thought he was just too risky to hold right now and the money could be better used elsewhere (ironically Pogba who has risen £3.50 in capital for me and returned no end of dividends) i will be tempted to buy back in tho if there is a dip.



  • @Gasdean nice ragin i missed pogba its too late for a big buy



  • I sold him recently and got out at the right time. I sold Pogba for £7 though and he is now nearly £10. We win and lose.



  • I do not get why he is so expensive. Messi and a few others have better PB and he is not the best for MB, certainly not this season so far. I do not get why people worry about age, you get 3 years max, personally I struggle keeping anyone more than 3 months.



  • @Joking at the end of the three years you have to sell the player so age is a huge factor. A 29 year old Neymar is going to be worth more than a 34 year old Messi or 37 year old Ronaldo.



  • @PB-man haha this answer shows the boys to the men



  • @Joking So many people say this "you can only hold for 3 years" nonsense. The market doesn't care when you bought your shares, it updates the same for shares you bought yesterday as it does for shares you've held for 2 and a half years



  • @Blue-Python this is so true. If I buy player x at 25 and hold for two years before selling, I sell at the price the market thinks he is worth at age 27.

    Because of this Ronaldo is a ticking time bomb. If he plays until 37 then he is only worth what you expect him to earn in dividends over the next three years and he becomes less valuable by the day. To hope for anything else is relying on a greater fool.

    Another issue is players ageing and becoming worse as they get older, especially for pb players aged 31+. Is Messi going to be bagging hattricks at 34?



  • @PB-man

    This is completely right. Anyone dismissing the underlying value of a future (the anticipated dividend return over the course of their remaining football career) should look at the drastic fall on Zlatan a year ago. The long-term matters and it is beginning to matter even more.

    Neymar is a safe premium pick because he has shown a regular ability to compete for both MB and PB on a par with CR7 and Messi but he has many more years of being a top player ahead of him. He has the highest individual PB score on the Index (I believe) and because everything flows through him he only needs a goal on any PSG game day to be in the mix for dividends.



  • Neymar was caining buzz last year becuase he had the biggest transfer in history and then had great PB when PB dividends began.

    Transfer buzz has gone and now has Mbappe for very stiff competition for PB.

    I would put him in line with other big hitters around the £10 mark now.

    (He might be worth £13 next summer when he goes to madrid (more buzz ),though but that’s a long time to wait with all that neymar money sitting there, especially when there is growth on the index, players catching up ect ect.

    Just my take on him.



  • @NewUser60527 Mbappe's PB scores are in no way comparable to Neymar's. Mbappe's highest ever score is 203, Neymar 357. Neymar has 9 scores above 210 I believe whilst Mbappe has zero. Of course Kylian can outscore Neymar on a given day but that won't be enough to win on a treble day.

    If Mbappe hits his full potential he will become as good a player as Neymar but Neymar's game is incredibly well suited for PB whilst Mbappe's is not. N'golo Kante is a top player but is not as good for PB as Alejandro Gomez for example.



  • @NewUser161744

    A circa 40p drop in a £13.80 player (i.e. 2.9%) is not a lot. Look at his graph over the last 3 or 6 months. The peaks and troughs are perfectly normal.

    The current drop is probably because he hasn't won MB or PB in a few weeks. When he does, his price will rise again.

    I've held Neymar for 8 months now and in my opinion he's a long term investment, who will deliver very good dividend returns and price appreciation over 1-3 years. However, if you're looking for a quick flip, he's probably not right for you, because the 2% commission is nearly 30p per future.

    PSG are home to Angers on Saturday. If Neymar scores a hatrick (which he could quite easily do), he'll be a leading contender for PB and star player PB. Of course, Mbappe could easily score a hatrick too, but Neymar's PB baseline is generally higher, so Mbappe will likely need to score more goals than Neymar in order to beat him to PB.

    The ideal scenario would be to own both, as you're almost guaranteed 10+ PB wins per season, such is PSG's dominance in the French league. Plus at least one of them is likely to move to Real Madrid next Summer.



  • @PB-man

    Football changes though, Mbappe is a bit older, a bit more experienced and better, more confidence, do you not think his pb will be different this season?

    Football



  • @NewUser60527

    Yes, could be.

    Injuries could play their part too. They're both the type of player who is liable to be kicked up in the air, so who knows whether one or both could miss a chunk of the season through injury.



  • @NewUser60527 He will improve but it will take a huge improvement to reach Neymar levels.

    Mbappe had a great half on the weekend but looking at their output per 90 minutes last season you can see why he will struggle to get near Neymar.

    Shots per 90:
    Neymar 4.5
    Mbappe 3.7

    Passes per 90:
    Neymar 67.2
    Mbappe 28.6

    So Mbappe needs to make up a full goal difference just to match Neymar's points from shooting and passing. Add in that Ney is on all set pieces and you can see the issue.

    Mbappe's game is best suited to playing on the shoulder of defences and dribbling in attacking areas, both of which are great in real life but do not earn you PB points. If that changes as he progresses he will be excellent but at the moment he can score more goals than Neymar in a match (a difficult task anyway) and still be outscored by him.

    Neymar's 17/18 goals per 90 0.95, Mbappe 0.54



  • What was neymar s score in the last game? I can’t remember, mbappe got 193 for 45 mins.

    I’m not saying Neymar isn’t great at PB but Mbappe was 18 last year and in Neymar massive shadow!

    Mbappe just won the World Cup and getting better all the time.

    I don’t own either player I just think Neymar is overpriced, different season, different circumstances.

    It will be interesting to see how it pans out with them.



  • @NewUser60527 So the 193 was with two goals and a game winning goal which accounted for 120 of that total. Add 18 points for the win and he only got 55 points for the half as a base score. Neymar scored 150 with one goal in that time (he was on 0 at the start of the half due to PSG's struggles) for a base score of 92.

    Taking off the gwg Neymar still almost matched Mbappe's total in the half and, from a PB perspective, that was the best half of football Mbappe has ever had.

    So again Mbappe needs to outscore Neymar on goals to have a chance of competing with him and Neymar scores a lot of goals. As a PB player Mbappe has less value than other youngsters like Leon Bailey or TAA so his high price factors in potential media and becoming a Neymar level PB player.

    He may get up their one day but for the foreseeable future Neymar is king. From a PB perspective Bailey probably has more potential and is less than half the price so it is probably Mbappe who is overpriced setting aside media.



  • @PB-man

    I have not watched any of PSG's games so far this season and not a big follower of French football in general, but I am just wondering what effect having Tuchel and a new management team might have on the players (Neymar and Mbappe in particular)? Especially from a PB scoring perspective.

    Any French football experts out there have some insights to share?


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