Can people please stop comparing apples to oranges?



  • It's frustrating how many traders seem to justify a player being undervalued by comparing him to a completely different player on the same team.

    I've just seen an example of a really silly comparison between Walker and Mendy so I'll use that as an example but you it happens all the time with other players (Trent vs Robertson, midfielders from the same team with completely different profiles as example).

    For the record I think Mendy is overpriced compared to the Man City centre halves because they are bigger goal threats. I do not hold Mendy for that reason.

    With Mendy and Walker these are the key differences that make Mendy's higher value obvious:

    Mendy is four years younger than Walker (this is huge)
    Mendy has the potential to improve as a player (peak years should be 25-28ish)
    Mendy has a higher PB max than Walker in many less games
    Mendy has a larger media profile
    Walker is pretty much always the lowest scoring Manchester City defender on the pitch (would need a brace or GWG to challenge)
    Mendy has a higher goal threat than Walker
    Mendy has a far higher assist threat than Walker
    Walker has played an entire season and a full World Cup without returning any dividends (data since November)

    Can these comparisons please stop? It would be far better to compare Mendy to other young attacking full backs than an older much more defensive one and the same is true for most of these comparisons between players on the same team.



  • The best thing about apples is that u can eat them with the skin on, I guess u can do this with oranges but that would ruin the taste!
    To be fair though apples are overpriced, your mini oranges are much cheaper and you do get more for your money, and they also normally come with a small orange mesh bag which can be used to create a goal!
    I have invested heavily in Seville so hope to see a booming orange market!



  • Some people say that Neymar is overpriced, but if you compare him to Artem Dyzuba, really he’s not.

    Neymar has won more MB than James Milner and Jose Mourinho combined.



  • @PB-man said in Can people please stop comparing apples to oranges?:

    It's frustrating how many traders seem to justify a player being undervalued by comparing him to a completely different player on the same team.

    I've just seen an example of a really silly comparison between Walker and Mendy so I'll use that as an example but you it happens all the time with other players (Trent vs Robertson, midfielders from the same team with completely different profiles as example).

    For the record I think Mendy is overpriced compared to the Man City centre halves because they are bigger goal threats. I do not hold Mendy for that reason.

    With Mendy and Walker these are the key differences that make Mendy's higher value obvious:

    Mendy is four years younger than Walker (this is huge)
    Mendy has the potential to improve as a player (peak years should be 25-28ish)
    Mendy has a higher PB max than Walker in many less games
    Mendy has a larger media profile
    Walker is pretty much always the lowest scoring Manchester City defender on the pitch (would need a brace or GWG to challenge)
    Mendy has a higher goal threat than Walker
    Mendy has a far higher assist threat than Walker
    Walker has played an entire season and a full World Cup without returning any dividends (data since November)

    Can these comparisons please stop? It would be far better to compare Mendy to other young attacking full backs than an older much more defensive one and the same is true for most of these comparisons between players on the same team.

    On Walker vs Mendy

    Walker is woeful at PB. This comparison also rankles because this fact renders the whole discussion moot. It's not as bad I guess to compare Trent to Robertson, because when Trent ain't playing Robertson has a decent chance, he does even when Trent is playing to a degree.

    But Walker wouldn't have a hope in hell on a single PB day playing alongside me and you, against a team of inflatable bananas. That's how wank he is. His price is baffling and even worse I saw it happening and didn't do it for some moral stance that I have since forgotten.



  • @Pierrey2129 Again though saying Robertson is undervalued compared to Trent is a poor argument. Trent is much younger, English and better for PB. If Robertson is undervalued then it should be argued on his own merits not just an arbitrary "some Liverpool defenders are expensive so Robertson should be too".

    I've seen people saying it the Atleti defence also despite the fact none of them are good for PB (maybe Arias (new signing) and Felipe Luis (back from injury) could be decent to be fair but it's unknown). As if Trent rising has any bearing on what an Atleti defender should be worth.



  • @Pierrey2129 are there any resourses for historical data?



  • @NewUser52765 said in Can people please stop comparing apples to oranges?:

    @Pierrey2129 are there any resourses for historical data?

    Yeah there's a few good'uns to choose from!

    @Noirx4 can give you the run down of the paid subscriptions. There is one for all budgets.

    For now check out Indexgain http://indexgain.co.uk/. You need an app called Slack which is going to be massive very soon, but it's all on the site - instructions etc.

    Read the blog, familiarise yourself with the 'buzz bot' commands and the different chats (called 'channels'), then come back and thank me haha. In all seriousness it's that good you'll be raving about it once you climb the pretty small learning curve.

    They ping you player price movements every 30 minutes mate and that's not even touching the surface. Mind blowing shit going on there.

    I use paid services as well as I like quick access to raw PB data, which Slack doesn't quite accommodate (YET!)



  • @NewUser52765 email Noirx4@hotmail.com for a free copy of last seasons data and details of the £1 a month product for this season



  • @PB-man

    You are not wrong but here's your issue.
    Some traders clearly know less than you.

    The platform is growing. People will see the likes of TAA and Mendy increasing and will instinctively think that Azpili, Alonso, Walker et al are underpriced. It's highly likely that this is due to a lack of understanding of the PB/MB system. I also think that it is due to fantasy football - People are applying the same logic....



  • @ocs123 well I haven’t seen any in 5 months everybody on here made out he was a media magnet and so far it’s been Salah, Pogba and Ronaldo I’d be gutted seeing no divvys in 5 months at that price



  • @PB-man said in Can people please stop comparing apples to oranges?:

    @Pierrey2129 Again though saying Robertson is undervalued compared to Trent is a poor argument. Trent is much younger, English and better for PB. If Robertson is undervalued then it should be argued on his own merits not just an arbitrary "some Liverpool defenders are expensive so Robertson should be too".

    I've seen people saying it the Atleti defence also despite the fact none of them are good for PB (maybe Arias (new signing) and Felipe Luis (back from injury) could be decent to be fair but it's unknown). As if Trent rising has any bearing on what an Atleti defender should be worth.

    I understand your argument but old traders are continuously telling newtraders to do exactly what you are complaining about?.I have seen loads of the twitter big hitters saying(for example) that Dalot went way too high after his ipo because he went 50p above any other united defender?.I don't think there is a lot wrong with using other players in the same team as a benchmark, expecting them to be exactly the same price is obviously a bit naive but it's a decent starting point surely?.



  • @Twitcher But it's not even a decent starting point. Old traders (especially on twitter) are often not that old and are pumping and dumping players (they did this with young players over the summer who they have now cashed in on). Many have no idea what they are doing and are just profiting off of the market rising (often growing their own portfolios slower than the market increases).

    Playing in the same defence as an established PB magnet is actually bad for a player. Kyle Walker should be at a lower price than the lead scorer in a weaker team for example.

    I can understand Dalot being higher than other United defenders since he is younger and the rest of the United defence are dreadful for PB. He's probably still overpriced so suggesting the other United defenders are undervalued as a result is a stretch.



  • @Irene-goodnight That's true and fair play if you can profit off of it but that sounds like a bubble to me.

    I have no time for traders (Twitter/Facebook the main culprits) deliberately encouraging rises on over-inflated players based on poor logic in order to flip players and profit off the people who follow them.



  • @PB-man said in Can people please stop comparing apples to oranges?:

    @Twitcher But it's not even a decent starting point. Old traders (especially on twitter) are often not that old and are pumping and dumping players (they did this with young players over the summer who they have now cashed in on). Many have no idea what they are doing and are just profiting off of the market rising (often growing their own portfolios slower than the market increases).

    Playing in the same defence as an established PB magnet is actually bad for a player. Kyle Walker should be at a lower price than the lead scorer in a weaker team for example.

    I can understand Dalot being higher than other United defenders since he is younger and the rest of the United defence are dreadful for PB. He's probably still overpriced so suggesting the other United defenders are undervalued as a result is a stretch.

    During that time it looked like Like Shaw was history however he has had a good pre season and seems very motivated, could well get his England place back, if anyone is undervalued compared to other defenders its him, he will probably be Uniteds best PB defender, his style of player can get a lot of crosses and he is more attacking than the others.

    Dalot is a kid who is a total unknown.



  • @Irene-goodnight agree; and being aware of this means that there is a chance to profit from other’s naïvety. Not saying it is the most noble way to play, but on the Walker v Mendy debate for example, when Mendy was flying up and Walker still on £1.15 you could reasonably deduce that enough people would (rightly or wrongly) see value, meaning a short-term hold would pay well. It’s not just about predicting best buzz, it’s about second guessing the mentality of other people I guess, including newbies. Essentially it is these kind of anomalies and intricacies that keep FI interesting... if every single trader had an in depth understanding and used all the available data to identify players, we’d all end up with similar portfolios, steady rises perhaps, but essentially a stagnant market where the rest of the futures out there would be duds...



  • @Mazza-magic

    You must be doing something wrong then, because Neymar's won MB 13 times and PB 2 times in the last 5 months! 5 months when he's either been injured or played poorly at WC.

    So not strictly true to say no dividends in the last 5 months. In fact it's BS.



  • growth aside if we think of it statistically according to PB & MB dividend wins there are a lot of players sitting around the £2-5 mark that in the words of the great Brian Clough "have won nowt"...

    If you buy for growth in value I wouldn't say that there is a formula (although mine is players who I think are good under the age of 30)... Just buy your shares in someone you have faith in and if they do well (or even if they don't) their stock should in time rise!!!!

    If you buy for PB then go for those that usually (or are more likely to) win it....

    If you buy for MB then go for those that usually (or are more likely to) win it....

    The rest is pretty is pretty irrelevant...

    If it were all about apples and oranges though I would suggest Mendy is a big fresh blood orange, full bodied hard on the outside ripe in the middle... Whilst Walker is a slightly ageing clementine that still tastes good but perhaps not as ripe as the day you picked it off the supermarket shelf.



  • @bangor116

    Couldn't agree more.


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