Analysis that's missing big time



  • Everyone is looking at dividends vs price for value. Going on hunches that defenders are now cheap. Before that potential is the best.

    FI still in a growth phase - doubling, trebling if you believe the hype over the next year or two.

    So what I want to know is what historic price growth of all players has been grouped by different positions, dividend winners, younger potential players etc. This is the best guide to where new money will go while FI is growing- admittedly useless once at near to full capacity - but critical now.

    Who has this data?

    Cheers



  • @NewUser140385 its gone through cycles with defenders being the current one. Last 4 cycles

    1. World cup players
    2. Youth
    3. Historic pb winners
    4. Defenders


  • In an efficient market players will be priced on expected dividend returns. As the index grows it will get more efficient so get players that already return dividends or are likely to return dividends in the future (this can be hard to predict of course).



  • @PB-man said in Analysis that's missing big time:

    In an efficient market players will be priced on expected dividend returns. As the index grows it will get more efficient so get players that already return dividends or are likely to return dividends in the future (this can be hard to predict of course).

    Yep. And another consequence of efficiency is that when someone wins, someone begins to lose. Atm a massive proportion are winning, and a small proportion losing. This gap will decrease over time and it will become harder to win. Long way off yet though it's easy pickings for a while.


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