Hi everyone! Some analysis / observations - top teams, positions, ages
I joined FI about three weeks ago. I'm currently about 8% up, so not too bad.
I'm interested in hold and grow strategies, and wondered if any of you had any good ones. But rather than just ask, I thought I'd try and start the conversation with some analysis.
I wondered whether there is just natural growth going on in the system. More users, will just be creating a demand.
The first hypothesis I wanted to test is - good teams will grow more than "average" teams as joe bloggs is more likely to buy them.
So I looked at the top 4 teams in the Premier League, an "average" premier league team, and a newly promoted PL team. I also threw in the top 3 from Spain and Bundesliga. I did all of this from the start of the 17/18 season - and took the players who played (started or a sub) in the first two games of the season. I compared their price "today" (this was last week), and their price 1 year ago (using the "average" price displayed in the 1 year chart).
Results (if you bought every player in these teams from the start of last season, excluding dividends);
PL - Top 4: Liverpool 111%, Man City 98%, Tottenham 64%, Chelsea 56%
PL - Avg (West Ham chosen at Random): 12%
PL - New (Brighton chosen at random): 1%
LL - Top 3: Real 95%, Atletico 52%, Barcelona 45%
BL - Top 3: Bayern 80%, Schalke 74%, Hoffenheim 36%
So it does seem that the "popular" teams deliver better results than average. Obviously the teams that performed better in the season also delivered even better results, but you could just go "PL top 4, Spain top 3, BL top 2" and you would have got a return of 75%.
I then wanted to look at whether position or age had any impact on price change (this is all excluding West Ham, Brighton, and Hoffenheim).
Defenders: 89% (CD 82%, FB 100%)
Mid: 66% (DM 6%, CM 79%, AM 81%, W 43%)
Fwds: 85% (Striker 52%, Second Striker 132%, Winger 101%)
So slightly surprisingly the Defenders are the best return on average, but Second Striker is the best sub position (but this is because of Salah - 433%, so be careful with the analysis at this level down).
1983-1985 - 5%
1986 - 1990 - 65%
1991 - 1995 - 86%
1996 - 1998 - 146%
So there does seem to be a relationship with age - the older the player the less return, the younger the player the higher the return.
So you end up with a picture that says something like; Buy the Full Backs, The Central Midfielders, the Attacking Midfielders, and the Forwards from the Top 4 PL, Top 3 LL, and Top 2 BL teams as long as they were born 1990 or later (would be 1991 this year). If you'd done that a year ago you would have a return (excluding Dividends) of 97% - how does that compare.
Obviously all of this is historical analysis, so will almost certainly be wrong for future speculation - but I thought I'd open up the conversation!
That's some juicy data right there - with strong summaries...
Where did you get the historic data from?
Historic price data is just from FI price charts set to one year ago. So possibly not 100% accurate.
Starting line ups etc from googling!
There are some interesting patterns. Wondered whether you guys have discussed before?
Thanks for taking the time to do this. Was an interesting read
Good work - your results rather tally with common sense; younger players have more potential to improve than older established ones, the top teams tend to attract the best players & also benefit from "extra games" in terms of CL & EL so their players have more chance of winning dividends (so are worth more). Lower priced, good players have more scope for price rises than higher priced, good players so defenders have risen more than midfielders.
I do subscribe to the buy the best players for the best chance of dividends & that overall FI growth will push every player higher but more so for the household names. Diversity will also help avoid the odd loser as I believe Lukaku for example has fallen over the last year but interesting, thought provoking analysis. Salah does prove however if you can discover a potential extreme performer early in their rise this affords the best returns.
Yes - it tallies with common sense.
I guess what I find interesting is that this isn't / wasn't priced into the model already. That indicates that FI is / was (the analysis is based on a year ago) an immature market. When it's mature the additional potential / dividends should be priced into the base player price, so the % increases should be more normalised.
Who knows what this will look like a year from now - it might have already been priced in now with the increase in demand and understanding.
I'm interested in whether the observed annual % returns are in line with more aggressive day / week trading - what sort of % are you guys observing? I'm a bit bad with impulse decisions, so if I can find a model that works rather than my gut I'm interested!
I agree the more popular FI becomes the less the opportunity for extreme, outlyier profits, as more technical analysis normalises profit levels but there will always be opportunities as on field performance are by their nature unpredictable & new talent will always be undiscovered, at least initially. There are already a couple of outfits pushing their own data & interpretation websites.
I actually think a more interesting opportunity might be in shorting over valued players but obviously that significantly increases the risk levels & regulatory requirements. Ultimately there will still be profits to be made on judgement calls as data will never be able to perfectly model footballing behaviour.
@NewUser159387 I love posts like these. Fantastic effort digging around and coming up with that. Seems like common sense but great seeing it in actual stats.
@NewUser161236 I meant to say. Great work 🙌🏻
Not suprising that the best clubs have the best performing players. The thing I'm not sure about is if the returns are biased against smaller teams as not all their players are on the index. It happens quite often that someone has a blinder against a big team. From watching the User Activity fees (i'll admit i have nothing better to do), its better than listening to the games as as soon as someone scores it seems alot of money goes into that player. Yet on Sunday Cathcart scored the winner and no one bought him, as I dont think he's available
I wouldn't get 'over-complicated' with this type of statistical analysis on FI as all you've done is mention the obvious (all be it very thoroughly)...
The rise will obviously go from top to bottom and the biggest clubs and best players will always be at the forefront of this and you could argue the WC would have seen very different results on a national level as the growth in the game within that time is much shorter?
One thing you do point out is that defenders have risen fast this last year... That's because when FI first opened everyone hopped on strikers and attacking midfielders which sent their rises through the roof.. so a year or so later down the line the knock on effect is that the rest are playing catch up as people look for value in the market (like in the real world) outpriced by those at the top end... Once that gap closes i'm sure people will hop on the next niche market, whether it be goalies or strikers again? or undervalued players from outside the top teams that might be looking for transfers?? I don't doubt however that during the last year the best and teams and players have grown quickest... What i wonder is will next year be the same as people choose to go safe with the big boys or whether they look for more varied options as the game matures!!!
Fantastic analysis this. Few people saying you're 'mentioning the obvious' but you've gone a fair way to proving it (albeit over 1 season) and can see you've put the effort in. Great stuff and good luck with your trading!
@Noirx4 promptly shits himself haha :D
To be fair this summarises quite a few themes that have been going round the index which people know about already but interesting to see summarised.
- Defenders have been considered to be under-valued for a while - recently promoted by TAA and Ramos rises, there has been a massive rise in defenders. I think if you had done your research before the defender boom you would get much different results.
- Pre-season saw big rises (unjustified ) in youngsters which contributes to your findings. The general consensus is they are now significantly over-valued so you may see a bit of a correction as they aren't playing or picking up dividends.
- People chase dividends - they always have whether its MB or PB. Research has found the big clubs dominate PB which is why their prices have risen.
Its important to recognise that FI works in trends - your findings pretty much pick up on the trends that people are aware of. If you do it in 6 months you may get completely different results as the next trends kick in.
Thanks for all the comments guys.
The only thing for certain is that this analysis will not predict what happens in future! But it was still interesting to do, and to see some patterns.
I’d advise everyone to have a play with some theories, get the data and then slice it. Just be careful that you don’t biase it.
I would be interested in extending it to the Italian and French leagues, but I can’t be bothered at the moment! :)
Certainly more interesting than stock ISAs!
@CleanShirtTrader always got more value to add ;) bring me competition and i will work even harder 😂
Hi Noir - do you have historic player price data, and data by teams, who played etc. By date? Ideally with player position and age also.
I’m happy to analyse but if someone has the raw data it will save a lot of time!
Nice to virtually meet you!
@NewUser161236 i have that level of granularity back to april. And a bunch of pb bsck to november
@Noirx4 great. Shall I email you?
I Would really like to know what will happen when all of the next ‘niche’ have been brought up to the limit and there is no value left in buying anyone, at some point even the bargain basement players will catch up in price as punters continue to look for a deal so surely that can be sustained.
When this happens unless there is some share split or greater dividends on offer then the transfer windows are going even more important making money.
I also think FA cup dividends should be on offer, that would defintaley encourage trading and mix things up and bit, its good to constantly have to think about things.