money down on players



  • how come so many players are losing money the prices are going down on about 80%



  • Just part of a seasonal cycle. Frantic start of season over , international break so no PB games for 2 weeks , they'll be up again soon don't worry



  • Also, the players who generally dominate media buzz - Messi, ronaldo etc are rising



  • @NewUser130968 Same has happened for me. I hold younger players so it makes sense. Can't wait to see my portfolio explode upwards in the future though.



  • yeah i think international breaks have always had this... market will upward surge once the daily matches come in to play again!!!



  • @HappyLarry59855 it's me again... Do you think is worth it waiting so long with no guarantee that they will rise?! I'm going down almost everyday mate! From 3 players on red now on 16!!from20% profit went down to 13% and I'm scary that's not the end!!
    And when I watching Pogba or others top 20 players just rise 1,2,3 or even 4£ up in last 2 month I'm really devastated!! I know it's too late for buying Pogba or others but I start thinking that would be better just buy 100x shares of him and others instead 50+ young cheap players!?



  • @Mundek

    Diversification is better than jumping from one niche to another

    Lots of players are dropping a bit during the Int Break because there's no PB games

    If your young players are dropping but getting game time then they should bounce back

    If they're not getting game time then consider cutting your losses because the market has moved on



  • @Dave-C said in money down on players:

    @Mundek

    Diversification

    This.



  • @Mundek My opinion is that if Pogba is rising to £10 then why can't NDombele who is £2 be around £6 or £7 one day like James Rodriguez? My view is that the top players will be all bought up until people think they are too high or high enough, and then they will buy the younger players with potential next. However if you are looking to make profit now rather than the future then go for those top 20 players. For me though they have already risen too highly and I am happy to stick it out with my younger players and let them play catch up over the longer term. I could be wrong but that is my opinion.
    I remember a while back people were complaining about their portfolio dropping whilst mine was still rising. Now it is the other way round and theirs is rising whilst mine isn't. I have always gone my own way and not followed others' tactics, wrongly or rightly. Since March 25th I've turned £12k into £18k now though.



  • @HappyLarry59855 said in money down on players:

    @Mundek My opinion is that if Pogba is rising to £10 then why can't NDombele who is £2 be around £6 or £7 one day like James Rodriguez? My view is that the top players will be all bought up until people think they are too high or high enough, and then they will buy the younger players with potential next. However if you are looking to make profit now rather than the future then go for those top 20 players. For me though they have already risen too highly and I am happy to stick it out with my younger players and let them play catch up over the longer term. I could be wrong but that is my opinion.
    I remember a while back people were complaining about their portfolio dropping whilst mine was still rising. Now it is the other way round and theirs is rising whilst mine isn't. I have always gone my own way and not followed others' tactics, wrongly or rightly. Since March 25th I've turned £12k into £18k now though.

    You need to remember a future is a bet the player will win dividends - that is all you are buying, there is no physical asset , its just a bet. Will Ndombele be returning 60% of what Pogba is returning now ? If not then he simply wont be worth that price.

    We've already seen the market doesn't act rationally however. Just because Ndombele isn't worth £6 and probably never will be doesn't mean he wont trade for that price. But in reality you are banking on people acting irrationally.



  • @HappyLarry59855
    Pogba breeds dividends



  • @mike778 That's a good point. NDombele is one of the highest average PB scorers in the world of his age group though. I see where you're coming from however.



  • I am a month and £4K in, and like Happy Larry, my strategy is with spotting younger lower priced players with potential. I am 1% down at the moment and not concerned at all. I am not interested in chasing dividends, they are side perks. I am not going to spend 24/7 monitoring media and performance buzz.

    Other punters buying players for dividends will drive up prices of good players of all ages, and eventually the ones I hold. Yes, some will not live up to expectations and will be substituted. Like most here it's a learning curve, and the forum provides excellent snippets of wise advice here and there. I am not going to buy Mbappe at the current £9, even though he's an exciting player. I've missed the boat on the value I want, one year ago he was identifiable and only £3.

    As he's only 19, he could be the Index's first £20 player in the next few years. So if you buy him now, you could double your money. If you'd bought him at £3 a year ago with six times profit possible, which Mbappe do you want to be on? Other opportunities will come along. There's no way I'm buying CR at 33 and £10, or Messi at £12 when you all know at any unsuspecting moment they will announce their retirements or movements to a lower team. Minimize unnecessary risk.

    Do your homework and other good players will jump out at you. My strategy is still evolving, and it's possible I could settle for around 10 players. The chance of one of my players being wiped completely out of the game through injury is negligible, and if it happened, losing up to 10% is no bother at all if you're operating on higher margins.

    I'm not worried if I've got it all wrong and I pull out after losing a few hundred, as against making thousands. The only way I would lose everything is if the platform went bust. I'm here with money I can afford to lose, like I hope you all are. Obviously there are many different profitable strategies to follow, and losing ones as well. Most of you know a promising player when you see one. If he's at a top team and young, then he's good, so get on. Just my opinion though. Other thoughts welcome..



  • @Ollie

    Interesting strategy & you highlight a very important trading strategy that many seem to overlook; finding excellent players, whether for PB/MB, capital growth or anything else for that matter is only HALF the battle the key to making good money is the timing. Every player will be a buy, sell or hold depending on their current price & future prospects, although that is a judgement call, many people don't give it enough consideration.

    I agree with your call on CR & Messi, not because they aren't great players or won't farm dividends or even rise higher in price but the risks associated with them are too high for me AT THEIR CURRENT PRICE. I also would add Alexis Sanchez who seems to be an FI darling based on his past performances but IMO with a much lower probability of repeating those returns, given his current circumstances, so is therefore over valued.

    Everyone has limited money so needs to make it work as hard as possible creating value, rather than just buying the same players that did well last year. I was advised Mbappe wasn't a good PB/MB prospect but bought him anyway at 709 & he's now 912 in a few weeks. Conversely Lo Celso was going to be PSG midfield's lynchpin so I have him at 297 but his now at Betis on loan for 252. Both are great prospects & will undoubtedly come good over time but my timing was good on the first & bad on the second.

    I think just 10 players is far too concentrated a risk profile & would personally aim for an average 2% maximum exposure in any player with perhaps a couple of banker exceptions but we clearly have a different risk appetite. If you only use money that you are prepared to lose it frees up your strategy to take higher risks that can results in greater gains. As by definition the greatest gains are made by those who get on winners the earliest & take the highest risk. As you say there is no right or wrong way to make money (or lose it).


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