Players unlikely to win MB / PB



  • All I seem to see on this forum is individuals rambling on about players likely to win bonuses and that they should be the ones invested in. Now are these people heavily invested in their own portfolios to mislead others only? I see that fundamentally the whole index is so young that it will continue to rise significantly over at least the next few years. So, why are some on hear feeling as though they have the right to criticise those investing in new talent and others outside the top 200? I think perhaps there is a lot of misleading comments here and lack of overall knowledge of the index and its future. Any comments on what you think the future holds and those to invest in would be appreciated.



  • @NewUser171924 I'm feeling u mate, I'm wasting my time with Mbappe and KDB, guess i better instant sell directly πŸ™„



  • Agreed. There is a lot of chat on here from ppl who haven’t been around more than 5 minutes. And I’ll put myself in that bracket. Your best sticking with those members who have been there for a while and know what their talking about. Off the top of my head- ocs, AT10, clean shirt trader, noirx, misto- to name a few. And johnnyboywalker cracks me up πŸ˜„



  • @Valhalla thanks for the recommendation mate but just because I've been on for a while doesn't mean I don't make mistakes too :-)

    I'm always happy to share past performance / buzz win records but it is simply that (past) and any advice I give is usually to prevent people losing money in a way I have already!

    Regards Mbappe, I think he's expensive for his current returns but he could potentially dominate MB for years. It's not happening at the moment so I don't hold. However if he starts to then I'll rejoin the train then!
    KDB his returns have also been poor, why he's only won 2 MBs in 18months I honestly don't know, I suspect it's because FI used to not recognise articles with 'de' instead of 'De' but now that's sorted it could help. A lot of new users buy him so I don't think you'll ever have trouble selling to the market.



  • @AT10 sorry for replying to myself, just reread my comment and wanted to point out that I am actually in decent profit despite losing money in every way possible ;-) So if you are just starting out and aren't making the money the twitteratti like to brag about be patient



  • I bought KDB some while ago during his injury layoff with the intent to sell as he peaked for his comeback.



  • Only been on here for a few months, hold some big names like Hazard, but enjoying investing in young prospects for the long term. Returns will be low on the young talent now, but have faith in patience paying off. But the bigger names give me MB and PB in the meantime and has paid off both international breaks MB wise, as I've experienced so far.



  • @NewUser171924 said in Players unlikely to win MB / PB:

    I think perhaps there is a lot of misleading comments here and lack of overall knowledge of the index and its future

    Whilst i agree that the index will grow over time & a rising tide lifts all ships it is misleading to say buying players is a one way bet as that type of investing is also known as the "greater fool strategy" in other words there will always be someone new coming along to buy ANY player at a higher price than you paid. It is this type of investing that creates bubbles (tulip bulbs, dotcom etc) which drive prices way beyond the value of the underlying asset & that inevitably results in a crash sooner or later.

    People often recommend players that have a proven PB/MB dividend history (or the future potential of it) because that sort of income stream can be used to explain the price of said player; Pogba for example has returned 176p over the last couple of months (approx 75p/month average) which is approx 5% monthly yield & whilst this is clearly not guaranteed it provides a good guide as to why he is worth Β£13 currently.

    Mbappe & KDB & many others don't have that proven track record & whilst they may find some in the future it is a much riskier gamble than a player with an ongoing record. Other players such as Sanchez have good previous MB record (Arsenal Man Utd/City transfer saga) but no obvious reason why it should continue which is why they are often regarded as over priced or not worth buying.

    Don't get me wrong some people do push their own players or try & pump/dump prospects but the vast majority of posters seem to be genuinely trying to explain why players are cheap, fair value or over priced but just because a player is great in real life or FF it doesn't always follow that they are a good FI player & even if they are the timing & pricing of any trade will determine how successful it is; those who bought Pogba or CR7 last week are currently sat on losses even though they are index powerhouses.

    There's no right or wrong way to make money on here but to be taken seriously you need to provide some reasoning behind your opinions IMHO.



  • Thank you @NewUser159387 for saving me a lot of time writing something similar! There are two points I would add, and this is intended as helpful advice for new traders based on my own experience, not intended to be slagging anyone off:

    1. I read a lot about "long-term holds" and "three-year rule", but it's worth keeping in mind that even if some youngster is going to be worth a lot more in three years, that doesn't mean you couldn't make way more profit putting your money into established dividend winners in the meantime.
    2. Obviously this depends on individual mindset, stubbornness etc., but in my experience, actually holding long term is really difficult. I've been on FI since January and still hold a few Neymars and Messis from near when I started, but the vast majority of players I bought in the early months (including young players I was definitely going to hold "long term") were gone by the end of the season. Consequently, most of my current holds were bought in the last three months and will probably be gone by the end of the year. It's just too tempting to take advantage of peaks and get onto the next opportunity.

    Obviously that's just one trader's experience and opinion, but I know a lot of others who've been around the block and feel the same.

    Edit: Just wanted to add the caveat that it is of course true that there are all kinds of ways to make money on FI (part of its beauty) and there isn't really a right or wrong answer.



  • @NewUser171924 said in Players unlikely to win MB / PB:

    All I seem to see on this forum is individuals rambling on about players likely to win bonuses and that they should be the ones invested in. Now are these people heavily invested in their own portfolios to mislead others only? I see that fundamentally the whole index is so young that it will continue to rise significantly over at least the next few years. So, why are some on hear feeling as though they have the right to criticise those investing in new talent and others outside the top 200? I think perhaps there is a lot of misleading comments here and lack of overall knowledge of the index and its future. Any comments on what you think the future holds and those to invest in would be appreciated.

    Surely the whole point of this forum is to discuss player valuations, market trends as well as what is going on in the index. Everyone here has an agenda. Everyone wants people to buy their guys and avoid buying others - personally I wouldn't trust anyone who claimed otherwise.

    Regarding future talents, its all about projections. If I thought a player would return 50p a year then I would value them at about 5 quid max probably less. If I thought a youngster may in a couple of years return 50p a year then I would maybe value them at about 1.50 quid as you would want a significantly cheaper price to account for the possibility that they will not.

    The problem is the price of current youngsters is way out of sync with that.

    I have said loads of times that there is nothing wrong with buying something worth 50p for 1 quid if someone will buy it off you for 2 quid. Its good trading. But lets not pretend they are good value and its a strategy built on very fragile ground.

    However its very fragile ground that has stayed upright for 3 years



  • Danny Blanchflower



  • You can talk about MB and PB as much as you like, but obviously Mbappe doesn't have a track record because the guy is 19 years old for the love of god πŸ€¦β€β™‚οΈ KDB is different because he had an amazing season last season and apparently he still has poor track record, that i understand.. but let's just say City won 3-0 last season and KDB scored 2nd or 3rd goal and was still pretty decent on the PB scoring... so why can it not be the 1st goal he scores this season and topping the PB ?? I just don't understand why some people don't get it that this is a new season and think last season's PB matters... can we take Salah for example.. last season I'm guessing he was winnings loads of PB and therefore creating plenty of MB ?? Correct me if I'm wrong??? So why is he not doing that this season ?? Because he's obviously got track record πŸ™„ am i making myself clear here ?? Stop thinking that just because there is track record there are guarantees of same trend, it's football ffs.



  • Omg I have to Edit almost every damn message I write πŸ™ˆπŸ™ˆ damn mobile.



  • @Andy-M said in Players unlikely to win MB / PB:

    Stop thinking that just because there is track record there are guarantees of same trend, it's football ffs

    Not sure anyone is really saying that, just that a previous track record CAN often be a good guide to future performances, especially with PB scores. In the same way previously poorly performing PB players may not be as valuable as they are in real life or FF for that matter. If you don't believe that Why not try picking players at random with no research & see how you go on?

    Just to assume a great 19 year old in real life should be king of FI because he's got massive potential is a very rash & dangerous approach but feel free to spend your money as you see fit. Experienced investors will share their knowledge & highlight some popular pitfalls free of charge in the spirit of collective learning but please feel free to ignore it & make your own mistakes.

    Not sure why you think everyone has an agenda & wants to push there own players as it's simply not true; I may say a player is under valued even if I don't own them, I have no vested interest in his price either way, just expressing my opinion.



  • @NewUser159387 appreciate your advice πŸ’ͺ🏻



  • @NewUser159387 said in Players unlikely to win MB / PB:

    Not sure why you think everyone has an agenda & wants to push there own players as it's simply not true; I may say a player is under valued even if I don't own them, I have no vested interest in his price either way, just expressing my opinion.

    I've only been on the forum for a few months and I can see that most people are here to help and offer great advice and guidence. Personally I have found the forum very helpful. However, there are a small number of people pumping their own players, starting topics about old Swedish centre backs or Monaco forwards for example. This is a pitfall for new users and if I'd have joined the index and got burned at the start because of these 'pumpers and dumpers' I would have probably closed my account. They aren't helping the growth of the index which is what we all ultimately want.


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