Assesessing Value and thoughts on my top 10 for next year.
Have spent a lot of time trying to work out how to asses a players true value taking into account all the different ways people operate on FI. However as I work with numbers and have a bit of OCD I personally wanted to be more objective of what is value. When you step back and take time to think about it there is truly only 2 things that contribute to a players value:
- His ability to earn dividends now
- His ability to start earning dividends or increase his dividends in the future this would include players that are young and improving, may transfer to a bigger or better club where they will have more clean sheets, passes or goals.
Therefore I have now had a really good luck at my portfolio and tried to asses which players to keep/sell and who offer great chances of capital appreciation in the next 12 months whilst having very little downside as I like to keep risk to a minimum and think of this as more on an investment than a gamble. I have listed them below and would appreciate any feedback as my positions are already substantial and I plan to keep adding (I have avoided the Neymar/Hazard types as they are obvious 3 year holds).
B Pavard - Very likely to at the centre of transfer rumours as he is too good to remain at Stuggart
D Rugani - Rumoured to be heading to Chelsea and this International is running his contract down
C Lenglet - Will be established as first team regular at Barcelona by the end of the season
J Gomez - Liverpool are keeping more and more clean sheets, he is good on the ball and will play nearly every game
I Diop - Has been 1 of W Ham's best players and I see him ending up at a champions league club within 2 years.
These 5 defenders are all inexpensive with only Gomez above £2 and look value as comparable players are all around £3 mark all bar Diop are full internationals and all are young.
C Pulisic - only 19 experienced with Dortmund and will move or be linked to move to a bigger club in next 2 transfer windows
J Brandt - Too good to not move to a bigger club and see him at B Munich within 12 months.
A Rabiot - Will be moving either at xmas or the summer on a bosman would sell when rumours are strongest
R Neves - Getting experience with Wolves and Portugal - the big boys will be knocking on the door
R Viera - Just over a £1 for the best young thing to come out of Leeds for years will get great experience in Italy
So hear the top 4 are all experienced internationals and top talents who will dee transfer speculation and probable moves sooner rather than later (Neves 2 years) and all are significantly cheaper than many more exposed players Viera is my highest risk as he is the least exposed but the price reflects this and at one quarter of the price to other young English players offers the biggest upside.
@Fletch pulisic, rugani and rabiot I own. Good mention.
All look like solid holds. Completely agree about Brandt and diop just a matter of time. 2 others to consider in that price range are havertz and maybe martial who may have larger upsides then some of the defenders.
I find Brandt an interesting one. Clearly extremely highly regarded in Germany to be picked in front of Sane for the World Cup even if the system clearly didn't work. Price has dropped recently due to Leverkusen's mediocre form. I agree that surely he will start angling for a move to one of the bigger clubs in Europe.