Crash looming?

  • I heard from a reliable and informed source that FI are expecting a massive decrease in the value of futures after Nov 1st, hence the bonus and upcoming promos. No shocking news there then! Apparently the limit on instant selling is one of a number of measures in place as more and more people are 'cashing out' in preparation for the introduction of 'penny shares' and the expansion of the 'first team'. According to my source with more and more people leaving, FI have created 'ghost accounts' to purchase their own shares to try and stabilise prices, which will later be liquidated back into the market, meaning further decrease in future values in early November.

    FI are so desperate for capital growth and have finally given in to market pressure to increase the number of players available to buy. With the obvious answer being to try and hold interest/business by increasing the dividend wins in the performance buzz and rumours of a World Cup buzz.

    Any thoughts?

  • Yep, it sounds like nonsense

  • I believe FI making ghost accounts would be in breach of the law and they wouldn't want to risk their license over such a thing.

    The market is going to change from 200 players to around 1000 players. So yes in the short term (weeks and months) the money in the market will become diluted as a scramble for the penny stocks ensues and people move cash from the top 200 to the squad players. And the latest promotion and world cup buzz, instant sell limitation and other initiatives are for sure damage limitation exercises which is also not a bad thing. However longer term the market will bounce back as it always does as more and more people join and the existing long termers continue to add more money into the market. Sure there will be some that emotionally collapse when they see their paper value drop. And many of these will decide this is too much for them and take their money out. But those that ride it out will continue to make profits and keep winning.

    2 key points. The market has risen from 1000pts to 8000pts in 2 years. And it's only a loss when you sell. Portfolio value on paper is meaningless in reality.

  • @NewUser85872 What happens when everybody has finished joining? Will the profit be as much still or will the dynamics change?

  • FI will do bloody well to fuck this up, they have a quality product which is still young so plenty of room for growth still and obviously they will make changes along the way to open the market up to more and develop the platform, to gain more users.

  • @NewUser59855

    There are some important factors to consider here.

    1. I don't think we're even close to a saturation point for new trader sign-ups. We all know people who are not yet on FI who like football and/or play fantasy football and/or enjoy a flutter. Multiply that across the UK and I'm willing to bet there are hundreds of thousands, and maybe even millions who could be tempted to set up an FI account.

    2. This is just the UK domestic market. FI is a product that could go global in the long-term. Imagine the money that could pour in if this opened up to Europe, South America, and the Far East (basically anywhere with legalised gambling). I suspect PB was introduced in part because that makes the platform more accessible to people without an understanding of and daily exposure to UK media.

    3. So long as it remains profitable, FI can always increase the dividends to encourage more capital investment.

    I have no concerns about the long term viability of FI as a fun and profitable platform; indeed I feel super lucky to have got in on the ground floor.

  • @playingcards1 Thanks for the response. I have been reading something about Pyramid selling and I wasn't sure whether there were similarities. Still, though if there is a long time before it becomes likely it's a good idea to stock up now and sell in a few years.

  • We all know whats coming in November and have done for some time - most people will have already adjusted their portfolios to account for these changes by now. There may be some initial drops in November as people rush to buy the new players, but player prices are generally dictated by the chance of winning dividends, and those with the best chance of PB (95% of which are already in the top 200) will recover and grow again after November.

    Can I ask, is your reliable and informed source one of the football index 'experts' on twitter?

  • @NewUser59855 My take is that all products follow a life cycle of introduction, growth, maturity and decline. I believe we are in the very early stages of growth of an excellent product and the growth phase will last for years due to the novelty of the product with no current competition and due to the size of the gambling market there's massive room for growth. They've barely scratched it yet. You can do a straw poll yourself on this and ask people you know "who's heard of say Ladbrookes or Coral and who's heard of Football Index?" Catch my point? We are the early adopters and are quite possibly as lucky as the ones that got in 2 years ago to be part of the double dividend crowd. Things will get more interesting when finally some competitors enter the market and force innovation and improvements from FI as they fight over us for their customer retention and attraction. Right now there's not even a single competitor so they have this market all to themselves. My recommendation is to relax, play and enjoy the game especially with double dividends coming up, the next few months should be a little volatile but really exciting! (p.s I've 10 years in business so got a pretty good feel on products and markets). Good luck to whoever reads this

  • @NewUser85872 Thank you for the response. I feel more re-assured.

  • The interesting thing to see will be how FI deal with the rise of and the rumour of a further two internet start ups similar to FI due before the end of the year. Their monopoly on the market is over and the introduction of the expanded first team is their attempt to appeal to the vast majority in order to hold their market share.

  • Only responding cos I'm bored at work! Wouldn't normally waste my time on this forum

    The irony of your post/title is ridiculous. Hearsay is probably the number one reason crashes occur in the first place! Do you understand that? Do you understand the meaning of irony?

    You're basically saying they are conducting illegal activities, the actual chances of that being the case are very slim. Risk the entire index for some short term stability....OR maybe a simpler solution would be to limit instant sell!

    Limited instant sell is designed to make things less chaotic, (pre squad period and November roll out instant sell needs to be limited) . Id be more concerned if measures weren't taken to calm things during periods that could potentially be unstable, not the other way around!

    By the way FI is still in its infancy and has so much potential, any feature introduction is to the long term benefit/evolution of the index.

  • @NewUser49172 said in Crash looming?:

    The interesting thing to see will be how FI deal with the rise of and the rumour of a further two internet start ups similar to FI due before the end of the year. Their monopoly on the market is over and the introduction of the expanded first team is their attempt to appeal to the vast majority in order to hold their market share.

    Once again, nonsense

    They currently have no competition.

    The expansion of players is to earn more revenue, it's not customer driven

  • @NewUser49172 doesn't just redirect you to footballindex mate? Can't seem to find any info on up and coming competitors. Link?

  • @NewUser49172 Football Fortune is also Football index. Like I said for now they are the only player on the market. If there are new ones coming soon, then that's great to know! Where can we find some more info on the 2 new start ups?

  • This is absolute bullsh*t and only goes to further increase the risk of a crash through rumour alone.

    State your 'source', or at the very least their credentials to provide such rubbish speculation, or GTFO.

  • @NewUser82193 It's someone trying to get a free link source back to an affiliate site

  • If it does I'll buy on dips thank you very much for panic selling...

  • To be honest, I think it would benefit FI if there was competition out there. The prices of futures fundamentally relies on demand. FI is still relatively unknown so competition would make the product more well known and popular.

  • Nobody knows .. certainly not FI

    What I think should happen is that money will have to come out of current assets to pay for the new players - that's pretty much inevitable. And its probably going to come out of the following:

    1. Players whose value currently is based on lack of competition. For example Bonucci - it doesn't make sense to hold him when there are likely to be a lot of players with similar PB potential available at a much cheaper price.
    2. Punty players like Solanke - again there will be a lot of youngsters with potential added probably for much cheaper prices so the younger 'punts' should lose value. Obviously if Solanke comes into the team and scores a hat trick today then he becomes less of a punt but its that "kind of player" who becomes less valuable due to potentially cheaper alternatives.

    That shouldn't cause a crash across the board. What might cause a crash is people expecting a crash and pulling money out - people seeing prices drop and thinking 'its coming' and panicking so it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. The index is very knee-jerky so it could well happen although on the flip side - a surprising FI announcement could cause everything to knee-jerk the other way.

    I think all things considered , there's a good chance of a price drop so I've pulled out all the money I invested and just kept profits in. I'm hoping they have another 10% promotion (the recent one caught me by surprise) in which case I will put it all back in with another 10% and hopefully buy back cheaper.

    Everyone's just guessing though - certainly when it all settles down its going to be a pretty solid platform to trade on.

Log in to reply