Most over valued player's on the index?

  • Plenty of threads available for pushing under valued/cheap/greatest players but very few about those to avoid, so I'll give it a go;

    Goalkeepers in general, until they get their own category (if ever), they really need to fluke a GWG to have a chance of winning anything in the way of dividends, even Allison only got a short period of MB chances for being the world record buy - this all really equates to them being virtually worthless in FI terms.

    Defensive &/or non-goalscoring midfielders, as this is usually the most competitive category of PB, any win usually relies on a goal or two. Even the most involved player in a top possession based team will struggle to win without a goal, Chelsea's Jorginho springs to mind as an example as being way over priced based on his PB/MB potential, consistently high PB scores but nearly zero chance of an actual win.

    Young, talented breakout players especially if they happen to be English but before all the Jadon Sancho holders start trolling, he may well become the next big thing for club & country but based on dividend returns so far (& short/medium term potential) his current almost £6 price tag is almost impossible to justify. One or two of these over hyped youngsters may or even will make it big on FI but the vast majority won't so whilst potential is worth investing in it can only be justified to a certain point before it becomes oversold hype, unless supported by performances & also PB/MB returns.

    A niche category is those involved in transfer sagas or contract disputes, Alexis Sanchez earned lots of MB whilst his future was uncertain but once he moved to Man Utd (& his form disappeared) he quickly became over valued. Ramsey is currently in a contract stand off, so may well be heading for a similar path but should he resign for Arsenal he will only have on field performances to support his price (& they have been arguably inconsistent).

    Finally injured players who rise consistently without ever kicking a ball; KDB went from 439 to 750 (which far exceeds the index generally or his own PB/MB record would justify) & Alex Ox-Chamberlain has been rising even though he has the most serious knee injury possible & there's no certainty he will even play again, let alone at an elite level.

    I have tried to keep it general with examples to illustrate the situation but feel free to add players but please try to justify your selections with supporting evidence.

  • I presume they'll be some statistical analysis that can confirm this? I suppose it will be the highest priced player to return the lowest amount of dividends?

    I do certainly feel young English players that have been sent on loan from the likes of Chelsea or Arsenal could be put in these categories though?

    Just noticed a Leicester City loanee at West Bromwich Albion (playing outside a PB league) Harvey Barnes is higher priced than FIFA's recently picked worlds best footballer Luka Modric....? Wonder if Modric will get any MB should he win the Ballon d'Or this year too? Or whether all the news that night will be instead about West Bromwich playing Preston???

  • @dannypea

    You illustrate my point well, I accept that age & opportunity will affect the amount of "potential" premium in a players price & young unproven players which "could be anything" will have higher volatility.

    Modric may suddenly retire or move to China or USA so has some higher risk factors that will limit his price & Barnes is at a club that has a proven track record of giving youngsters a chance, so ripping the Championship up for a year could enhance his price with next year in mind.

  • Agree with all of the above. But would also add strikers who are expensive because they score a lot of goals, but their lack of involvement in the game means they don’t accumulate big PB scores. The likes of Cavani, Kane, aguero. Lots of goals doesn’t actually mean lots of points. You need the Neymar/Messi types that sit just behind and rack up hundreds of passes and assists as well as goals.

  • @dannypea Barnes is a class act. He is a standout player for me in the championship this year although mount gets a lot more limelight.
    I will certainly be having a punt on him!

  • not saying he's a bad player but in context of youngsters (especially outside a PB league) does he compare to Cristian Pavon? Or Kasper Dolberg? Or Donny van der Beek? all lower priced and have been touted around Europe... Is he a better hold then Ivan Perisic? Dani Ceballos? Rapael Varane? Jean-Kevin Augustin? Serge Gnabry? Thomas Meunier? All cheaper options with more PB opportunity and equal growth potential I could go on...

    I just feel 'every' new English 'fringe' player that gets IPO'd just hits the roof because we have a knack of building things up in this country and are usually equally as quick to knock them back down again!!

  • I agree with you totally on the young English being overpriced. Especially the championship players with the minor few who actually step up when they reach the premiership.

  • People see the Maddison rise and just think the same will happen to other championship players.

  • @Dan-w

    Ryan Sessengon now springs to mind....?

  • Goalkeepers at the moment

  • @dannypea If Modric were to win the Bd'O he would receive no MB due to being outside of the top 200 players (as it stands)

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