It's just gambling now



  • In just four days since the new Goal/assist bonus, I've become swept up in it and it's just purely gambling. It's hard NOT to get involved, knowing there are potential sharp price rises and dividends on offer.
    But when I signed up for FI, it was seen as a reasonably safe (and fun) investment strategy.
    Not now.

    I don't see how they won't keep it after the trial ends though, so I may have to cash out. It's too easy to lose money now



  • @ScouseSte same here. Signed up precisely because was alternative to pure gambling. The new directors are clearly steering it towards traditional gambling, which is a shame. Not withdrawing quite yet but monitoring situation closely...



  • Alternatively, you could keep the faith in your long term picks and uninstall the app for a few months?

    I bet you’ll be in a better place by Christmas!



  • @playingcards1 difficult to keep the long term faith when FI have taken a sharp turn towards short term punting...



  • Seems safer now to just place a anytime goal scorer bet on a game for a few quid. Instead of putting hundreds into a player on here. Result would be about the same. Either lose a few quid if they don't score make a few quid if they do. Also wouldn't have to pay say £4 on £200 worth of player shares to get our money out.



  • Ach I disagree. This is a minor little blip. The big long term picks are still viable and profitable.

    FI are not going to kill the golden goose. If these prevailing market sentiments continue to drag the Footie downwards, the trial will be written off in November and they’ll find something better next time. They always get it right eventually.

    Not sure how long you guys have been on FI but there have been many more volatile periods and market crashes in the past few years. We’re still at the beginning of the journey and there’s plenty more growth to come!



  • @playingcards1 said in It's just gambling now:

    Not sure how long you guys have been on FI but there have been many more volatile periods and market crashes in the past few years.

    I think this is a really important line. Can you expand further because many of us haven't experienced anything similar and it is disconcerting. I joined in May and its been pretty much all positive - bonus deposits, WC dividends, key announcements, shirt sponsors etc. Solid growth with a few flat periods us the worst we've had.

    It would be great to hear from experienced users about how their patience and long term strategy has paid off and what helped them ride the waves so to speak.



  • @Metropolis_山の中の市 If you are here for the long haul. Like any 'long term' investment. There will always be rises and falls along the way. For you to have just flat periods as the worst is amazing. I joined in March this year, and it was slow at first as I was new to this long term patient game.
    Even after the World Cup I had dips but now alot more wiser and in the green with more investment made along the way.
    Hang in there for now. Imagine only 4 countries are on the platform, with more to come. With trial and error plus the inevitable split shares to be launched by FI.
    Imagine in a year with you being more experienced, and a better platform can potentially gain....



  • The problem is, if you have any small trait of gambling addiction within you, you now have the option of falling into the instant gratification trap (buying a player before kick off in the hope he scores / assists etc).

    Before Friday, I was happily investing in long term prospects and youth players who are on the verge of big things.
    It's all gone now. It's TOO EASY to be tempted into trying to make a quick flip.

    Tonight I only lost about £20 in selling players that I bought yesterday who had an average/poor game ... But my portfolio is only worth just under £900. I want to invest a lot more but after tonight's experiment, I don't feel "safe" doing that.



  • @playingcards1 I hope so.



  • I'm going to be taking a step back too. When I first started, I watched the platform for three weeks to gain an understanding of it. After three weeks I knew I would have made a profit so got involved. I'm currently in the green but it has become just like gambling for me too. I'm not sure whether to pull out of this until the end of November or pull my money out of all the others (currently only a few are eligible for goal/ assist bonuses) and put them into someone steady and hope for maybe something to still be there at the end, with possibly a few dividends...



  • @ScouseSte It's often said on here that the key to success on FI is not so much about predicting the game or player performance, but predicting other users' behaviour. I take the point that its changed slightly but this is likely temporary and if you understand the mindset of gambling, then doesn't that put you in a position to benefit from it and the patterns it creates?



  • @Metropolis_山の中の市 The Index used to be a lot more volatile when it was just the Top 200 and based purely on media buzz. This meant money would shift rapidly to the flavour of the month. And because there was no PB underwriting their value, a player whose media pull threatened to disappear would almost immediately render them worthless.

    Obviously most of the non-Premier League players had very little value (40-80p) because they rarely pick up media. But players like James Rodriguez went to £3 based simply on the rumour of a move to Man Utd and then dropped to £1 within a day when he moved to Bayern. The biggest crash was when Antoine Griezmann (after climbing streadily to over £6) simply tweeted: “Atlético. Now more than ever”. His value plummeted instantly to about £1.50.

    And then there was the time that FI created PB to replace permanent treble MB, but said all players would be eligible to “win” even if they couldn’t be bought on the Index. The bottom dropped out the premium players almost instantly. Ultimately FI restored PB to the Top 200 - and released IPOs to the squad incrementally - but people lost thousands of pounds within about an hour.

    I’ve been on the for Index two years; and I’m more confident than ever that this product is going places. I’ve lost some money in the last week. But it’s still early days, the company are still experimenting and growing, and I don’t mind a general market trend that gives me £10 but then takes £1 back every now and then. Keep faith in FI to get it right eventually, and keep faith in your long term picks. They’ll bounce back and be worth a lot more by Christmas.



  • Think one of you made a great point.. now it seems if a player has an average game (or more importantly doesn't score) their price can tumble by -0.20 plus due to panic flipping whereas before they stayed pretty flat/stable.

    So now when we are looking for players we need goal a game strikers or risk volatile losses should our choices not score?

    That increases risk and minimises reward because all that will happen is we start to chase our losses with 'goalscorers'... Nothing calculated or strategic about it?

    I can see heavy losses short term due largely to folk saying "this is not for me"



  • @playingcards1

    Thank goodness for PB!

    So, moral of the story is FI do respond to correct mistakes so no reason to believe they won't do the same. I bet (no pun intended) there were people selling up when these changes happened as well? And look at what's happened to the people who stuck with it and rode out the storm.

    No guarantee of future success of course, but this platform has survived for 3 years for a reason. Maybe a Q&A would be good to reassure us.

    I'm sticking.



  • Check out this thread from 6 months ago. Same story. The market rallied in the end.

    https://forums.footballindex.co.uk/topic/1749/is-nobody-on-here-concerned



  • @playingcards1

    This is a brilliant overview - thanks! I almost feel like this should be stickied somewhere. I can't imagine what the reaction must have been to opening MB out.

    I'm with you. Definitely sticking with it. Keeping to long term strategies seems like the best way. My only variance from this is occasionally selling during the pre-match bumps for potential goalscorers, and buying during the post-match slumps after excellent strikers haven't scored (e.g. Aspas this weekend). This approach uses the volatility but minimises downside risk.



  • @Willie-Mink said in It's just gambling now:

    @playingcards1

    This is a brilliant overview - thanks! I almost feel like this should be stickied somewhere. I can't imagine what the reaction must have been to opening MB out.

    I'm with you. Definitely sticking with it. Keeping to long term strategies seems like the best way. My only variance from this is occasionally selling during the pre-match bumps for potential goalscorers, and buying during the post-match slumps after excellent strikers haven't scored (e.g. Aspas this weekend). This approach uses the volatility but minimises downside risk.

    I don't think this is quite right - I can't remember Football Index ever intending to move MB outside of the top 200. The original plan for PB was for PB to only be for the top 200. It was then announced that anyone could win it which triggered the mother and father of all crashes (which I think he is referring to) for non media magnets. The index then reacted by doubling PB (originally it was 2p, 4p, 6p) which made everyone happy again. The likes of Perisic's all time PB yield is skewed because for a while he was winning PB when only 200 players could win it.

    I don't have any serious concerns. The one concern is that prices have risen to the point at which not many players will return enough dividend wise to justify their price so unless there is a 'proper' dividend rise, then we will be getting a bubble forming. I don't have any problems with the new G+A thing as an addition but as an alternative to a proper dividend rise it isn't great.



  • @mike778

    My apologies! You are right. I remembered it as MB and it was indeed the PB announcement.

    Incidentally, here is the statement Adam released the next day. Exactly the sort of approach I think would have been welcomed with this G&A situation, rather than them coming out swinging on Twitter.

    http://footballindex.news/market-update-2/amp/



  • @playingcards1 Jaysus that sounds like a hellish time for investors!
    I just got my fingers burnt tonight, selling early on Sampdoria duds so I could jump into Leicester duds 😭😂😂. I'm over my little tantrum now but I definately need to stop my urge to have involvement on EVERY matchday (contrary to what FI would want, such is their evil genius in implementing this dangling carrot!)


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