I have closely followed the events of the weekend without "jumping on the bandwagon" as I didn't want to deviate from the reason I signed up to this platform. I now have a lot of players in the red, but these are players I had no intention of selling and initially I wasnt bothered. What does concern me is the long term direction of FI, and whether I need to rethink my approach to benefit
Take Thiago Alcantara as an example - hes a solid PB hold and I intended to hold long term and farm dividends. With the recent changes players like Alcantara have now become less appealing as they arent scoring many goals and coupled with Bayerns dismal form I have taken a hit.
What are peoples thoughts/anyone in a similar position?
Do I hold and hope for tiered PB and no more G&A divs (or just no more G&A divs) as that will make his price rise or do I sell as if this trial is extended then he continues to fall.
Thats one example of a specific player that falls into the bigger picture of strategy - I am interested to see if anyone has quickly reacted to change their approach or are people sticking to plan A as for me, in the short term at least isnt working.
I am also conscious that sitting on a player and farming divs costs the wider FI model so I worry they will continue to look for ways to discourage traders from doing so.
Same situation. I bought Vardy to test the water of this trial, but the rest has stayed the same.
Hold Thiago, Kroos and Pjanic, all of which have suffered, (the former 2 I expect coinciding with horrendous team form too).
Expect them to snatch PB over the season the. I will hold, and monitor. Never fun to see red, but i expect a recovery post-trial.
For me personally, no changes to my strategy as yet but may alter slightly if the new dividends become permanent.
My portfolio isn't huge but I'm looking to build it up by re-investing profits. My current strategy is to have a couple of MB and PB players (think Salah), some PB holds (think Immobile) and some growth/future star players (think Foden) and then I have about 20% in players i think will see some growth short term to build some profit to re-invest (Jordan Ayew is my current example).
If the dividends become permanent I may look to invest a small % of my portfolio in goal scorers for a month period hoping to get some dividends from goals and a rise then go again the next month.
Waiting and seeing at the moment before I decide. Not trying to pump my players just wanted to add some contect to describe my strategy.
One thing to bear in mind is that although the recent announcement has clearly had an effect on Thiago's price, Bayern's recent form has also been way below par and he personally hasn't scored over 150 in his last five games, so you'd expect his price to be dropping anyway. I understand you were just giving one example, but I do think the wider context is important.
Obviously none of us know for sure what's going to happen, but my personal belief is that the recent announcement has made cheap strikers the latest fad/trend, but I don't expect it to continue to this extent even if the trial is made permanent. I suspect the next time any of your solid PB holds wins they will see a rise like they would have before, or maybe more so as in most cases if you win PB you've also scored at least once.
For my part, I am in something of a similar position, I partially rearranged and it's worked out alright for me. I'm also still holding Thiago, as well as James, Banega, Isco (several I would consider premium-price PB players). They are down a bit indeed, but as I say, nothing makes me think they won't still come good. I did sell most of my more expensive defenders, purely because you have to play the market as it is and it was clear they would be the ones to lose out in the excited reaction to the new goal mechanism. I'll probably buy back into some once things have calmed down a bit though, as the dividend potential is still there.
I got quite lucky in that I bought Roger Marti and especially Emiliano Sala as I expected them to rise going into the weekend, but hanging on to them not only brought goals but also triple PB for Sala. However, I think the safest way to profit would be to see who's likely to rise (e.g. strikers with a single game day) and sell to market before kick off to avoid the fall Defrel had last night. All depends how risk-averse you are though. FI has always been about trends and deciding whether to chase them or stick them out, so personally I feel the negative reaction to a few red days on long-term holds has been a bit over the top, but maybe that's just me.
dannypea last edited by
I think one thing mentioned is 'player pumping' which now seems irrelevant.. who's the next best thing?? irrelevant... who's the one to watch this week? irrelevant... Because if they don't score (or at least assist) their price drops due to the fact people will become impatient... The fact that you can get in after the event also takes away any relevance of holding for me... You could have zero portfolio... Buy 1,000 shares on a Tuesday night during a game and sell them all after for £100 profit??? Repeat on Wed and Thu and so on....
Holding big may become riskier?? Strikers that don't score will drop more because people will simply flip them for other strikers that have netted... so say Harry Kane goes 3 matches without a goal will his price drop £1+?? What if he gets injured long term?? His stock is then pretty much worthless!!
In that case lessening the risk of your portfolio could become essential? I for example hold seven of the top eight valued players... to limit damage perhaps it would be better to drop that down to 4 and invest in other 'less riskier' players at £2's and £3's??
I think G&A's is a game changer... not for the better of my current portfolio, probably not for the better of the future of FI but for the better of the funds FI make... Because of that, IF you are IN then your portfolios should probably adapt to the model? The only issue we have now is the waiting game until trial becomes reality... but when it does I can see people swapping their holding midfielders and low scoring players for riskier short term options just because they fit the business model!!!
I also still hold Thiago, alongo with Isco, Kroos and others who have taken a hit. I'm holding and will continue to hold for PB purposes - I also think the market has overreacted and things will settle down.
I've mostly continued as I was, despite the G&A dividends. The only difference is I've changed when I sell slightly - along the lines BL has set out - I am more likely to sell, particularly strikers, a bit before kick off, on the rise. I locked in sizeable profits on Plea this way at the weekend.
It's never fun to see red. But I'm not yet seeing red, if you catch my drift! And I plan to stick with this strategy, unless something significant changes.
I feel like im stuck between stick or twist. I hold a few premium defenders as well that have taken a hit but I dont want to sell and be sucked into the striker merry go round. The problem is I dont know if my stubbornness is going to result in me losing money.
Whilst this, at the moment is just a trial and ends soon, it could just as easily be the the way things will work moving forward and if that is the case then now would be the time do adapt and change my approach.
The other part is we are yet to see what will happen to striker prices in general at the end of the trial - will we see a drop off in prices as traders move their money into other areas in anticipation for further trials? will people gamble on clean sheet divs and move money into defenders to try and beat the curve.
Whilst the last week has been a poor one for me personally and im sure many others, the reason we are all still here is because we have made money overall and the bigger picture is far more positive. I just want to open the conversation to see what people are thinking and whether the way to make the most of FI has changed. With the unpredictability of PB maybe looking towards goalscorers is a way which is proving very profitable, and certainly suits the more active traders
ocs123 last edited by ocs123
Yes, I agree with what you've written.
If the G&A dividends are ditched at the end of November, then some semblance of normality will return.
But if the trial period is extended or adopted permanently, then it really is a game changer . I don't see any point in holding defenders or non-goal scoring midfielders in that scenario. Yes, they can still return conventional PB and the occasional MB, but capital appreciation will be much lower than before and liquidity in those players will be poor.
As you've said, why risk investing £100 or £1,000 into a defender or non-goal scoring midfielder on the off-chance that they might return a 4p / 8p / 12p PB dividend or a 5p MB dividend once in a while, when you can put the same money into a player (pre-midnight) that has already scored a goal or goals. Guaranteed 2p / 4p / 6p dividend (depending on the number of goals he's scored), capital appreciation (if you time the buy and sell right) and a shorter period for cash to be tied up (and risked).
When I emailed FI to complain about the G&A dividend promo, they responded to say that they do not manipulate player prices. It's a bit laughable really if they don't understand the signficiant consequences that the G&A promo has on player prices and the market as a whole.
dannypea last edited by
'every' rule change FI makes manipulates the market!!
Lukeroro last edited by
I have a big problem with Rabiot. When he got up to 3.30 I held, he dropped to 3.15 and since the change he's at 2.75. I could see speculation alone getting him above 4.00 but why hold long when flipping is now the most effective and pretty risk free way to move up.
I pied off Sturridge at half time vs Huddersfield for 25p profit and to be frank in hindsight maybe I should have got rid of Rabiot and a few youngsters (Gbamin, O Dembele, even Pogba) who just seemingly aren't gonna rise.
In genuine need of advice. I've lost a lot of interest and the longer I hold the more some of these players fall..
I think You have to stick to your guns, you brought Rabiot for transfer spec so keep until that starts hotting up, there is no point in selling now. If you sell you could end up in a circle of trying to claw back money and get desperate. Most of the time being patience always wins.
It’s hard seeing red but the experience traders and ones who have made the most money probably have had months of a player in the red only for them to turn green.
SDOAFIT last edited by
Looks like Rabiot might sign a new contract which is probably why he dropped.
@Lukeroro totally agree and seem to be very much in the same boat,,,do i stick or twist? Just waiting it out for a while now and if, after this "trial" I feel it's not for me then I'll lick my wounds and leave, which I'm sure is not what FI intended. I was in it for the long haul and bought players with that intention, the goalposts have definitely moved.
I totally sympathise with your situation as am in a very similar situation. The major problem is there is no right or wrong thing to do as none of know what FI plan to do next week, next month or next year. By introducing something that influenced existing prices so dramatically overnight for a trial period means we can only guess:
- If trial period ends and is not continued or replaced by something else that is radical we can hold and things should return to how they were.
- If trial period continues then young players and defenders will continue to fall and be less valued.
- If a new promotion starts then everything moves again!
Ideally FI need to introduce something that equally benefits all types of players that both benefits long and short term strategies.
From my point of view I am currently selling the vast majority of my portfolio as and when prices move in my favour as whatever happens I believe there will be opportunities for profit if you are cash rich.
This also reduces risk as if FI need to increase revenues and need more trading then long term holding could be the area that suffers. I would then be in a position to walk away and am not exposed to a crash.
@Fletch i take it you're not reinvesting your withdrawals at the minute? This is something I thought of in order to protect my deposits, but it's not really what I wanted as a strategy.
I reshaped the portfolio a little by buying a couple of underpriced strikers with the profits from selling some defenders and younger players and am now selling a couple of players each day and definitely not re investing.
I had been dropping £4,000 per month into FI since I started early this year with the aim of putting £100,000 in over 2 years. However I can honestly see me having no more than £10,000 left in by the end of this trial period as to put it simply I can no longer trust FI not to move the goalpost’s!!
Obviously if they come out with a long term strategy by the end of this trial period things may change.
It could be that there are opportunities for very occasional large short term bets on individual players but it does unfortunately look like the platform is moving from a Football Stockmarket to daily match performance betting.
@Fletch thanks for the insight. I guess that what irks me that I'm having to sell players I bought for a reason to take part in this trial as I'm not cash rich and I wouldn't have thought about selling them as the market stood. I feel as though I'm missing out as 38 of my 40 players are not eligible for the G/A dividend as bought before the 16th and I'm sure as hell not going to sell them to buy them back, that just makes no sense at all to me. To me the "date of players bought after the 16th are eligible" was designed for nothing else than for people to sell their existing futures.
I had a number of friends interested in joining FI, always asking be on a daily basis how my portfolio is doing. This last week has been difficult for those friends to see it in the same way as they did before and I’m getting the feeling they’re showing less interest in joining but are asking more questions if that makes any sense!! I’m finding it difficult to answer most questions as I don’t really know myself the “what if” Questions as I don’t know what’s going to happen myself. Personally I don’t like the fantasy football style I feel this is working towards its not what I joined up for. Just my opinion but I’m feeling if things stay as they are it’s not for me.
Ollie last edited by
Well if FI wanted to see rapid turnover, it seems their wishes have been granted, albeit that some traders are selling up and not re-investing!
The old adage of turnover is vanity and profit is sanity comes to mind.
I have a feeling FI will see a wonderful short term spike in turnover but may need to replace a massive % of there existing customers with new short term punters to create long term profits as a huge number of existing traders at best reduce our exposure and dealings with FI or at worse walk completely away.