Why the G&A dividends are a good thing.
A lot of people have been complaining about the new G&A dividend addition and have been saying their porfolios have been down.
I personally have gone up slightly without having to change many players. I have still kept the majority, but thats not what i want to talk about.
Here is why i think all the complaining will stop in a week time.
A lot of money recently has been invested in goalscorers. What that means is that by the beginning of November all the players who receive their goal dividends will dump it all back into the index, so expect a sharp rise in beginning of November.
Same thing will happen at the beginning of December on an even bigger scale, plus this might be followed by a Christmas Bonus.
Think logically please, you can't have a negative effect on your portfolio by a new addition, a new way to make money. They are literally giving you free money away and you are complaining. Think about it. Give it a few weeks and everything will fall into place.
ocs123 last edited by
But that money is likely to be dumped back into goalscorers!
How will that help the majority of the market (which is clearly down), unless the G&A dividend is discontinued?
@ocs123 majority of the market was already based on goal scorers before.
Goalscorers normally take the media and performance buzz. They are some exceptions but these are normally the players who take the spotlight. Plus the media and performance buzz dividends are still significantly higher than the goal dividends, so you would be a fool to ignore them.
ocs123 last edited by ocs123
A lot of customers are already ignoring MB and PB though, that is why many prices are down! There are more sells than buys in most of the top MB and PB candidates.
Money is moving into rubbish £1 and £2 forwards who have very little chance of returning PB and MB, but can deliver the occasional G&A dividend.
It's a fundamental shift in the market. The decline may slow and stop at some point, but things won't magically recover unless corrective action is taken.
@ocs123 don't you think thats somewhat fair though. Why should Pogba be £15 and Cavani who was almost down to £1.70.
Also who will score most goals again this season and where are they in the index now. Are shitty strikers gonna score more than the good ones?
@Drogo90 Because those are their fair prices under the current rules of the game. Changing those rules causes the kind of volatility we are seeing now.
Also Pogba is a better player and much more valuable than Cavani in real life.
ocs123 last edited by
The short-term (30 day) percentage returns will be better on some of those crap strikers though, which may be why they are attractive.
2p per goal for £1 player is 2% return
2p per goal for £15 player is 0.13% return
Plus the sale commission on a £1 player is only 2p, but this rises to 30p for a £15 player.
Very few people (if anyone) will buy a £15 player chasing G&A dividends.
According to my rough notes here Pogba has returned £1.33 per future in dividends just since the start of the season , while I don’t think cavani has returned any. That’s what you would expect to see reflected in their prices.
@ocs123 youve got a point. One way to fix this is to put a deadline on G&A dividends as well.
There is however a big risk involved in buying random strikers. Say you hold 100 futures in a 1£ player that scores 2 goals, you will get £4 but what if he drops to 80p overnight when everyone sells, you will lose more than you would have won from the dividends. I know people do this but they have nobody but themsevles to blame for that.
I'll tell you why this 'trial' hasn't been a good thing...
Hazard down 0.28 in 24 hours... Ronaldo down 0.18... Messi down 0.18... KDB down 0.18... Pogba down 0.17... Mbappe down 0.11... Neymar down 0.11.... Suarez down 0.11
These are some of the best players in the world, the biggest names we have and the leading lights when it comes to FI investments... If these are down then it either suggests the whole market is down (which it is) or other people are putting their investments into other players that aren't quite as good (which they are)...
So thinking logically... If the best players in the market are at a loss... what does that mean for the rest of the market??
Now the form players in Europe, Alcacar is down 0.16 in 24H... Piatek down 0.11 in 24H... Jovic down 0.09 in the last day...
And there's more.. Dybala down, Ramos down, Suso down, Insigne down, Bale down, Aguero down, Kroos down, Lewandowski down, Reus down, Mane down, Sane down.. all over 5p per share!!!
So if we can't invest in the best players because they are falling... and we can't invest in the form players because they are falling... Who do we invest in??? Chancers? Flippers? Average Joes up against weak opposition??? Can a market really survive on that??
I'm not trying to be negative (just recording facts) because IF i was a new investor looking into the game... I would be thinking on who to invest in... and I would be thinking 'WHY?' are all the best players on the game falling whilst the absolute cream of the crap like Sandro Tonelli and Matt O'Reilly are leading the way in the rises??
FI needs to reflect real life football... if it doesn't it simply becomes a farce!!!
Ollie last edited by
Players are down because the index is down, -216, that's huge in terms as we know it.
.... and the index is down because G&A is not a good thing??
Ollie last edited by Ollie
Trader confidence, rightly or wrongly, has been quite shaken I presume. Conspiracy theorists would say it's a ploy to drive the market down and then buy back in!
@Ollie Im still higher then i was before the G&A dividend introduction but lower than the initial reaction to the dividend introduction.
I think a lot of players are looking at it that way and it seems like they are down when they are not. (Could be wrong)
I also think that the overall negativity is contributing to players cashing out or leaving all together.
Advinculas Index last edited by
One of the main factors I believe is that we are possibly stuck with these conditions for another 35 days minimum with a high % of us haemorrhaging any profits we had made.
And as a result there will be this early who whilst they believe in the index long term are looking to take the hit on selling out (ideally through the queue) and then looking to lump back in once things stabilise.
Sure you will take a hit from commission doing this but the rationale is that this is a leasser of 2 evils when compared to waiting for things to stabilise (or not depending on what they decide to do at the end of Nov)
There really is no pleasing some people. For months, folk on the forum and twitter have been complaining about the top players being too expensive and the cheaper players practically being pointless as they dont win mb or pb. Now the top players are dropping and the cheaper players have a purpose and people still complain. Though to be fair, something needs to be done about the deadline to steady the daily spikes and dips a bit
so the negativity caused by the reaction of players all together cashing out and leaving is also not good for the index??
I understand some (very few) portfolios will be up from this.. I also understand FI aren't a charity... But in working out a strategy to stay competitive in a falling market is becoming increasingly difficult... Is our best chance to hop on IPO's early and flip? Is it to take a punt on a Red Bull Salzburg striker? Is it to 'play' the markets and capitalize on a striker when they score to make a quick 10p per share profit?? Because at the minute PB & MB wins aren't covering the falls?
If this is here to stay and if all these bonuses will solve the initial issues.. what is the strategy we then take??
I actually think long term trading and investing NOW in falling superstars is the best way to go but whilst the footie keeps falling I also think that is beginning to look like a risky strategy as we simply take a punt on FI getting it right going forward!
Once you lose 'investor' confidence it's hard to fully win it back!
The absolute returns and therefore value of the more expensive players have not changed since the announcement (although I can see why in a finite pool of cash, money has shifted around a bit).
I have made all my profit by having a diverse portfolio and very rarely selling players - riding out these blips and waiting for the inevitable surge as FI grows in popularity, all the while collecting dividends. I will continue to do this and believe we make our money by holding during a dip.
G&A dividends (which are pretty small compared to MB/PB) encourages some people to flip and, in my opinion, overtrade, resulting in more commission for FI - which is a good thing long term for the index as long as they keep attracting new money.
Also, at some point there won't be any additional perceived value in goalscorers as their price will have hit a ceiling after a few months of punters topping up on them. Money will move elsewhere again.